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Prices of oil fall due to demand concerns, but are still heading for a weekly gain

The oil prices dropped on Friday, but they are expected to rise for the week. This is due to the expectation of lower demand, as the summer ends in the United States - the largest consumer of oil - and the uncertainty over the Russian supply.

Brent crude futures expiring on Friday fell by 53 cents (0.8%) to $68.09, while the contract that is more active for November dropped 48 cents (0.7%) to $67.50. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) were down 51 cents or 0.8% at $64.09.

Brent is expected to gain 0.6% per week, while WTI will rise by 0.8%.

Prices rose after the Ukrainian attack on Russian oil export facilities earlier this week, and after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced on Thursday that there would be no meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Prices have been impacted by the fact that the U.S. summer driving period is ending with Labor Day on Monday, and the availability of more supplies from major producers after the voluntary output reductions are over.

We expect a rise in global oil stocks in the coming months due to a combination of OPEC+'s rising supply and a seasonal drop in global refining activities from September. In a note, Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities analysts Vivek Dhar and Vivek Agar predicted that Brent oil futures would fall to $63/bbl by Q4 2025.

The U.S. is worried that the U.S. could respond to the Russian attack on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital early Thursday morning which killed 23 people.

Investors are reluctant to make large investments because of uncertainty over U.S. and European sanctions following Russia's attack on Ukraine and the possible impact of U.S. Tariffs on India.

Investors will also be watching India's response after Trump imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian imports, which doubled the U.S. pressure to stop buying Russian crude oil.

Traders said that despite the pressure from the United States, Russian oil exports will continue to increase to India in September.

Refining sources say that Saudi Arabia, which is the world's largest oil exporter, could cut crude oil prices in October for Asian buyers due to a glut of oil and a weaker demand.

The Druzhba Pipeline, which supplies Russian crude oil to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba Oil Terminal, has been restored after a disruption caused by an attack on Russia by Ukraine last week. (Reporting and editing by Yuka Obayashi, Sudarshan Varadan and SonaliPaul)

(source: Reuters)