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Citrus exports to South Africa reach record levels, but farmers worry about US tariffs
Citrus exports in South Africa soared by 22% this year to record levels, due to higher demand, favorable weather, and the introduction of new trees, according to a growers' association. Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa added that the record-breaking season had been marked by demand for juicing lemons and oranges on overseas markets. In the October-ending season, Spain was the world's second largest citrus exporter. It shipped 203.4 millions 15 kilogramme cartons compared to last year's 165 million. Europe accounts for 36% of South Africa's total citrus exports. The Middle East is second at 19%, and Asia comes in at 15%. North America, Britain and Russia took 9% each of the total shipments by 2024. The CGA didn't give a breakdown of 2025. The report said that a premature end of northern hemisphere citrus supply drove demand, opening the supply window to South African citrus in early 2014. Improving logistics efficiency at ports had also increased exports. Farmers are worried about 2026, even though a U.S. 30% tariff on South African imports had only a small impact because it was implemented at the end of export season. "We are still very concerned about the impact of a 30% tariff on the upcoming 2026 season," stated CGA CEO Boitshoko ntshabele. He added: "That's why a mutually-beneficial trade deal between South Africa and the United States must be finalised immediately." South Africa exports between 5 and 6% of its citrus fruit to the U.S. earning over $100 million per year. The CGA warned that Washington's tariffs could threaten up to 35,000 jobs in the citrus-growing regions of the Northern and Western Cape Provinces which export exclusively into the U.S.
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As Mideast metals flow in, the share of Russian and Indian aluminium on LME stock drops.
In October, the share of Russian and Indian aluminum in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell as nearly 50,000 tons from Australia, Indonesia and the Middle East entered the system. LME data released on Monday showed that the percentage of aluminium stock of Russian origin available in LME warehouses fell to 51% from 59% in September. The share of Indian origin also decreased by one percentage point, to 40%. LME has prohibited metal produced in Russia after April 13, 2024 from its warehouse system. This is to comply with U.S. & British sanctions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine 2022. Metal produced before April 13, 2024 can still be traded but many traders avoid it. Aluminium stocks that are available or on warrant The number of metric tons of Russian origin rose to 256.025 at the end last month, up from 244.025 in September. A LME warrant is an ownership document. The LME, which is the oldest and largest industrial metals market in the world, reported that India's aluminium stocks also increased to 202.350 tons. The influx of aluminium from Australia and Bahrain, Indonesia, Oman, and Qatar, totaling 47,725 tonnes, diluted the share of Russian and Indian material. The share of Russian-origin copper stocks available Last month, the LME stock remained at 14%. The amount dropped to 16,700 tonnes from 18,125 tonnes. Data showed that the share of copper made in China remained at 82% despite the fact that the total amount dropped to 100,400 tonnes from 109 350 tons. At the end of October 2017, 70% of LME nickel stocks were made in China, up from 68% one month earlier. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson; Tom Daly)
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Bousso: Trump's sweet spot for oil prices is a 'no-man's-land' for the rest of us.
In recent months, oil prices have fluctuated within a relatively small range between $60 and $70 per barrel. This reflects both concerns over rising supplies of oil as well as trade wars or geopolitical conflict. This may be a sweet corner for U.S. president Donald Trump but it's a "no-man's land" for oil producers. The low end of the range was reached in mid-October. This allowed Trump to carry out his promise to impose severe sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil & Rosneft. These two giants account for 5% of world output. Trump calculated that escalating the economic war against Moscow wouldn't lead to a severe disruption or price spikes, as the oil market was currently oversupplied. At the same, prices at the current level do not threaten the United States as the top oil producer in the world. In October, the U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its production forecasts by 100,000 barrels a day to 13.5 millions bpd. It also raised output forecasts for next year. CONFUSION REIGNS ON MARKET DIRECTION Does the U.S. President have a right to expect that prices will stay rangebound? What you say depends on whom you ask. The International Energy Agency predicts a massive oversupply next year of nearly 4%, or 4 million barrels per day. This could cause prices to crash, and force many producers into drastic production cuts. The world's leaders in energy do not appear to be overly concerned. The heads of oil trading companies in Abu Dhabi predicted last week that Brent oil would remain within the $60-$70 range for the next year. Some even suggested that the feared oil oversupply might not be as great as the IEA estimates. This is due to disagreements over demand. While IEA analysts expect consumption to increase by 700,000 bpd in this year, OPEC analysts put growth at nearly twice that rate, at 1.3million bpd. China's massive stockpiles this year for which Beijing has not provided any data have further confused the picture of demand. The lack of visibility of a large part of the oil markets due to the increased use of tankers that violate sanctions to transport Russian oil, Iranian oil, and Venezuelan crude has also clouded the picture of supply. OPEC+ is clearly hedging their bets. Last week, it called for a modest rise in production in December to 137,000 bpd. This would be followed by a break through the first quarter next year. MAJOR MUDDLE THROUGH Western oil majors have signaled that they do not expect to see dramatic changes in prices in the foreseeable future. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are among the major U.S. producers of shale oils that plan to increase their output in coming years. Exxon Mobil, the biggest U.S. oil company, increased its production forecast for 2025 in the oil-rich Permian Basin by 100,000 barrels per day, to 1.6 millions boed. It maintained the 2027 output of 2 million boed. Chevron increased its Permian production in the third quarter, and intends to keep it at 1,000,000 boed over many years. In recent years, these firms have made significant cost reductions to be able to pay dividends and generate profits even when crude oil prices are around $60 per barrel. Oil majors have even indicated that they can continue to repurchase shares at current prices. However, they may need debt markets in order to do this. SWEET SPOT OR "NO MAN'S LAND"? Does this mean everyone will be satisfied if the prices stay within today's small band? Hardly. Many OPEC producers need oil prices to be much higher than the current range for their national finances. Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven is $92 per barrel, according the International Monetary Fund. The current oil price range also poses a problem for the market in general. The supply-demand equilibrium will be in limbo until prices break through the floor of this range. If OPEC's optimistic forecasts of demand do not materialize, a violent price correction could occur. This is because swing producers, especially U.S. Shale Drillers, won't be forced to drastically reduce production until prices drop below $60 per barrel over a long period of time. According to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, existing wells in big shale areas can produce profit at U.S. crude oil prices of between $26 and $45 per barrel. According to the survey, companies are also planning on drilling new wells between $61-$70 per barrel. Big offshore projects can also generate profits for much lower prices, between $40 and $50 per barrel. The risk of overproduction will continue to increase if these producers maintain production. There are certainly signs that drilling activity is slowing down in the U.S. Shale. According to Baker Hughes, the number of rigs operating onshore has decreased by 10% this year. If the IEA oversupply scenario becomes reality, a larger correction will be required. Oil would need to fall to $50 per barrel for a prolonged period of time to force producers into a sharply reduced drilling activity. President Trump – and U.S. customers – might be okay with it, but U.S. manufacturers and many OPEC member states would not. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights, and links to the latest stories. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Venture Global reports third-quarter profits on strong LNG demand
Venture Global reported a profit for the third quarter of 2014 on Monday. This was a significant improvement over a loss in the previous year. The increase in production from its Plaquemines plant, located in Louisiana, and strong LNG demand were both factors. Venture Global shares were up 6.4% on pre-market trading. According to preliminary data released by financial firm LSEG, the U.S. was the largest LNG exporter in the world with a record 10.1 millions metric tons of LNG exported in October. According to LSEG, Venture Global was the second-largest exporter of superchill gases in the U.S. last month. It accounted for over 30% of all exports from the country. After Donald Trump took office, the commercial activity in this sector accelerated. Venture Global reported revenue of $3.33 billion for the quarter. This compares to $926 million a year ago. The company reported a net income of $429m for the quarter ending September 30 compared to a loss $347m a year ago. (Reporting from Tanay Dhumal, Bengaluru. Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
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Ten charts showing global trends in energy and emissions since the Paris Treaty: Maguire
The energy sector and its emissions have changed a great deal and a little in the decade following the historic COP21 Paris Agreement, which aimed to reduce global warming. The explosion of renewable energy and the surge in sales of electric vehicles have fundamentally changed the global car and power markets. They've also ushered in a "electrify all" movement across the globe. The global production and use of crude oil, natural gas and coal have also continued to rise to new records. This has led to an increase in energy consumption emissions that will be nearly 10% higher in 2024 than in 2015. Here are 10 charts that show the trends in global energy consumption and power pollution to help you get a better idea of the situation as the COP30 Climate Meetings begin in Brazil. FOSSIL FUELS STILL ROUND THE ROAST Even after the most rapid rollout of renewable energy in a decade, global energy supply remains overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels. The Energy Institute reports that fossil fuels still account for 87% of the world's energy supply, owing to a historically high consumption of coal, crude oil and natural gas. Good news for those who support clean energy: fossil fuels are down from 89% of the total in 2015 and will continue to fall. The bad news is that global fossil fuel consumption continues to rise despite the reduction of coal burning in many countries and the acceleration of the shift to electrifying industrial and transport processes. EVER CLEANER ELECTRICITY Solar panels, wind turbines and battery systems have seen record growth, which is boosting the percentage of clean energy in electricity generation. Ember data shows that global clean electricity supply has increased by 22% between 2015 and 2024. Meanwhile, fossil fuel generation has decreased by 11%. In Europe and Latin America, the utility systems generate more than 60% of their electricity from renewable sources. The global average hovers around 40%. RENEWABLES RISING Renewable energy has been a major story in the world's energy systems for the past decade. In the period between 2015 and 2024, there has been a surge of 68% in electricity consumption from renewable sources. This includes electricity networks as well as industrial power systems. Solar power production has risen by nearly 700% since 2015. Wind power has risen by 200%. In the last decade, Asia has been the leader in the deployment of solar and wind technology. By 2024, Asia will account for 45% all renewable energy production. Europe has the second largest renewables deployment, with roughly 20% of the market, followed by North America with 18%. Asia is the largest solar market in the world, with a share of around 60%. Europe and North America follow closely behind. Asia is also the leader in the world for wind energy deployment. Emissions Impact Since 2015, energy emissions have decreased in North America and Europe due to the rapid increase in renewable energy generation around the world, along with the reduction of coal-fired electricity production in many countries. The Energy Institute reports that energy emissions in Asia accounted for 52 percent of total energy emissions in the past year. Since 2015, the United States, Japan, and Germany have all reduced their energy emissions more than any other country. Even though the U.S. and Japan have reduced their emissions from their energy systems, the pollution trend elsewhere has more than offset their collective emission reductions. Data from the Energy Institute shows that China has increased its energy pollution more than 20 of the largest economies have reduced their emissions collectively since 2015. When you consider the rising pollution levels in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, the global trend of energy pollution is still on the rise. BATTERY BOOM Battery energy storage systems are growing rapidly. This could slow down the future growth of energy emissions, particularly in countries with a large footprint of solar production. Asia is the leader in the deployment of utility scale battery systems. This is largely due to China's position as the world's top battery manufacturer. The United States and Australia have also a large BESS capacity. This should allow utilities to make better use of their solar assets, by charging the batteries during periods when solar production is at its peak and then dispatching them as demand increases. BESS deployment is the next step in the energy transition and will help major power systems meet more of their commitments from the Paris COP a decade back. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for. You like this article? Check it out Open Interest The new global financial commentary source (ROI) is your go-to for all the latest news and analysis. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on You can find us on LinkedIn.
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The volatility of crypto treasury tokens is stoked by the pivot towards fringe tokens.
New entrants push into less popular tokens as companies that are focused on stockpiling Bitcoin and other major cryptos come under pressure due to market saturation and a deteriorating sentiment. This is fueling concerns about increased volatility. The number of publicly traded companies investing in cryptocurrency in the hope that they will appreciate is on the rise. This boom has been fueled by President Donald Trump's crypto friendly stance, and the meteoric success Michael Saylor's Strategy. According to DLA Piper, as of September there were 200 digital asset treasury companies, mainly focused on bitcoin, with a combined capitaion of $150 billion. This is up threefold compared to a year ago. Daily, more companies are launched, including penny stocks looking to increase profits. As bitcoin's value falls, companies are increasingly turning to more volatile, esoteric tokens to boost returns. What are the risks for investors? Greenlane, OceanPal, and Tharimmune, for instance, have announced that they plan to stockpile BERA (Bera), NEAR (Near) and Canton Coin respectively. This trend shows how the volatile and speculative worlds of cryptocurrencies are becoming more intertwined with conventional markets, posing potential risks for investors. The risk is higher when DATs expand to less liquid and exotic cryptocurrencies. This was confirmed by Cristiano Ventricelli at Moody's Ratings, senior analyst and vice president of digital assets. Ventricelli said that when markets fall, the pressure on equity for these companies increases. A VOLATILITY PIPELELINE Since April, DATs have been funding token purchases through private placements (PIPEs) - by selling shares to private investors directly - often at a discounted price. Analysis found that at least 40 DATs raised over $15 billion via PIPEs from April to November. Only five were focused on Bitcoin. Bitcoin suffered a loss for the first month since 2018 in October. Public data shows that Winklevoss Capital and Galaxy Digital are among the heavyweight crypto investors who participated in these deals. Also included were Jump Crypto, Pantera Capital DWF Labs DWF Labs DWF Labs Kraken, Pantera Capital and Jump Crypto. While institutional investors may be able to buy tokens directly, the DAT allows them to gain exposure and leverage their returns through regulated public companies. Stock prices are often volatile because PIPEs give companies quick access to cash. However, shareholder dilution as well as the possibility of reselling shares after lockup periods have ended can cause volatility. Analysts say that because DAT companies rely so heavily on PIPEs they are particularly vulnerable to market declines. This was evident when the markets fell on 10 October due to renewed tensions between the U.S. and China. BitMine - which stocks ether - fell by more than 11%, and Forward Industries – which invests into Solana – fell by more than 15%. The stock of Strategy, a company that has made purchases using other methods, dropped by nearly 5%. The hype surrounding DATs has subsided since they first hit the market. Peter Chung is the research director of Presto Research, a crypto-focused firm. He said: "I think it will come back." OceanPal's spokesperson stated that its NEAR purchases allowed shareholders to take advantage of the token's AI-integrated capabilities. Greenlane declined comment. Strategy BitMine and Tharimmune did not respond immediately to requests for comments. Neither did Winklevoss Capital or Galaxy Digital. TRADING BELOW NET ASSET VALUE Investors believed that they could buy more tokens with their credit. Some are trembling as bitcoin's value has fallen and Strategy copies have flooded the market. According to The Block, at least 15 bitcoin treasury firms were trading under the net asset value for their tokens on Friday. Bloomberg reported that Singapore-based 10x Research, which estimates retail investors who are big buyers Strategy and other bitcoin DATs of high-profile, have lost $17 billion in these trades. Some DATs that focus on other large coin are also under pressure. ETHZilla, Forward Industries and other DATs have recently approved share repurchases. This is a common move to support share prices. Michael O'Rourke is the chief market strategist of JonesTrading. He said, "I believe most of these digital assets treasury firms will end up trading at a discounted price to the digital asset." 'ABSOLUTELY DECIMATED' Standard Chartered analysts stated in a note published in September that DAT companies held 4% of bitcoin, 3.1% ether, and 0.8% solana. Their fortunes, therefore, could have a major impact on coin prices. Kyle Samani said that Forward Industries' chairman, Kyle Samani, stated in a press release that the buyback program allows "flexibility" to return capital to investors when they believe their stock is trading below its intrinsic value. He and other DAT executives claim that their success is rooted in the ability to make intelligent investment decisions. In an interview, Samani, co-founder of Multicoin Capital which invested in Forward Industries’ September PIPE, explained that "you're betting on management to go and do interesting things." A spokesperson for ETHZilla said that the company was opportunistically repurchasing its shares when the stock price fell below the net asset value. While it has a large amount of ether on hand, the focus is primarily to put traditional assets onto blockchain. Other DAT companies also look for ways to increase shareholder value. SUI Group which stocks Sui recently launched their own stablecoins. He added that if a DAT simply sits back and buys tokens "long-term, you will be absolutely decimated." Hannah Lang reported; Michelle Price, Rod Nickel and Rod Nickel edited.
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Official data shows that fewer Germans are moving to the US since Trump took office.
Official data released on Monday showed that the number of Germans moving to the United States will drop sharply after the second term of Donald Trump. According to preliminary data from the German federal statistics office, between January and September, emigration into the U.S. dropped by 17.8% on an annual basis, to 17,100. The office released a statement saying that departures to the U.S. were at the lowest level since 2021, the year when the pandemic hit. In the same time period, migration from the U.S. into Germany increased by 3.4%. This is the first time that the U.S. has seen more people move to Germany. The tourism between the two countries has also decreased. In the period January-August, 1,96 million U.S. tourists visited Germany, a decline of 3.2% compared to 2024. Arrivals in July fell by 10.2%, the most dramatic drop. The U.S. remains the most popular non-European airport destination despite a decline of 1.3% in air travel to the U.S. Spain, Turkey, and Italy were the top three foreign travel destinations for Germans during this period. After several Germans were arrested at the border, Germany updated their travel advice for the U.S. in March. (Reporting and writing by Rene Wagner; editing by Thomas Seythal).
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Bousso: Trump's sweet spot for oil prices is a 'no-man's-land' for the rest of us.
In recent months, oil prices have fluctuated within a relatively small range between $60 and $70 per barrel. This reflects both warnings about rising oil supplies and concerns over trade wars or geopolitical conflict. This may be a'sweet spot' for U.S. president Donald Trump but it's a 'no-man's land" for oil producers. The low end of the range was reached in mid-October. This allowed Trump to carry out his threats to impose severe sanctions against Russia's two giant oil companies, Lukoil & Rosneft. These two firms account for 5% of world output. Trump calculated that the escalation in the economic war against Moscow would not cause severe disruptions and price spikes, as the oil market today is oversupplied. Despite the low prices, the United States remains the top oil producer in the world. In October, the U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its production forecasts by 100,000 barrels a day to 13.5 millions bpd. It also raised output forecasts for next year. CONFUSION REIGNS ON MARKET DIRECTION Does the U.S. President have a right to expect that prices will stay rangebound? Who you ask is important. The International Energy Agency predicts a massive oversupply next year of nearly 4 million bpd, or nearly 4% of the global demand. This could cause prices to plummet, forcing many producers into drastic production cuts. The world's leaders in energy do not appear to be too concerned. During a gathering of oil traders in Abu Dhabi, last week, some suggested that the feared oil oversupply might not be as great as the IEA estimates. This is due to disagreements over demand. While IEA analysts expect consumption to increase by 700,000 bpd in this year, OPEC analysts put growth at almost twice that rate, at 1.3million bpd. China's massive stockpiling, about which Beijing has not provided any data this year, has further complicated the picture of demand. The assessment of supply has also been distorted by the reduced visibility of a large part of the oil markets due to the increased use of tankers that violate sanctions to transport Russian oil, Iranian oil, and Venezuelan oil. The OPEC+ coalition is clearly hedging their bets. Last week, it called for a modest rise in production in December to 137,000 bpd. This would be followed by a break through the first quarter next year. MAJOR MUDDLE THROUGH Western oil majors have signaled that they do not expect to see dramatic changes in prices in the near term. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are among the major U.S. producers of shale gas. They plan to increase their output in coming years. Exxon, America's largest oil company, increased its production forecast for 2025 in the oil-rich Permian Basin by 100,000 barrels per day, to 1.6 millions boed. It maintained the 2027 output of 2 million boed. Chevron has also increased its Permian production in the third quarter, and plans to keep it at 1,000,000 boed. In recent years, these firms have made significant cost reductions to be able to pay dividends and generate profits even when crude prices are around $60 per barrel. Oil majors have even indicated that they can continue to repurchase shares at current prices. However, they may need debt markets in order to do this. SWEET SPOT OR "NO MAN'S LAND"? Does this mean everyone will be satisfied if the prices stay within the narrow band of today? Hardly. Many OPEC producers need oil prices to be much higher than the current range for their national finances. Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven is $92 per barrel, according the International Monetary Fund. The current oil price range also poses a problem for the market in general. The supply-demand equilibrium will be in limbo until prices break through the floor of this range. If OPEC's optimistic forecasts of demand do not materialize, a violent price correction could occur. This is because swing producers, especially U.S. Shale Drillers, won't be forced to drastically reduce production until prices drop below $60 per barrel over a long period of time. According to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, existing wells in big shale areas can produce profit at U.S. crude oil prices of between $26 and $45 per barrel. According to the survey, companies are also planning on drilling new wells between $61-$70 per barrel. Big offshore projects can also generate profits for much lower prices, between $40 and $50 per barrel. The risk of oversupply will continue to increase if these producers maintain production. There are certainly signs that drilling activity is slowing down in the U.S. Shale. According to Baker Hughes, the number of rigs operating onshore has decreased by 10% this year. If the IEA oversupply scenario becomes reality, a larger correction will be required. Oil would need to fall to $50 per barrel for a prolonged period of time to force producers into a sharp reduction in drilling and to allow supply and demand rebalance. President Trump – and U.S. customers – might be okay with it, but U.S. manufacturers and many OPEC member states would not. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights and links trending stories in your mailbox every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
No injuries reported after fire at MOL refinery on the Danube in Hungary was contained
The fire at the main refinery of the Hungarian oil company MOL, located south of Budapest on the Danube River, has been put out. Firefighters are still on site.
MTI, the state-run news agency, reported that a fire started late Monday night at a feed unit. The fire did not affect production immediately.
"A fire broke out Monday night at the AV3 unit of the Danube refinery. The fire has been contained and firefighters are still on site. MOL stated in an email that the cause of the fire is still being investigated.
According to MOL’s official website, the Danube refinery in Szaszhalombatta has been operating since 1965. It can process 8.1 million tonnes crude oil per year.
Both the Danube refinery, and MOL’s other refinery located in Slovakia, are largely supplied with Russian crude oil via the southern spur of Druzhba's pipeline. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed, Shri Navaratnam and Anita Komuves)
(source: Reuters)