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Vaca Muerta is expected to boost Argentina's energy surplus to a new record in 2026

Analysts say Argentina could surpass the record energy trade surplus of last year in 2026. This is due to infrastructure improvements that have improved the country's ability to ship oil from Vaca Muerta shale formation. Analysts said that the 2026 energy surplus could be between $8.5 billion and $10 billion. This would be largely dependent on oil production.

Argentina's government is aiming to boost energy exports while reducing its dependence on imported natural gas. It also wants to strengthen the central bank reserves, increase foreign currency inflows, and boost investor confidence. Argentina's government posted a record $7.8 billion energy surplus last year. Exports were $11.1 billion - up nearly 13% since 2024 - while imports dropped 18% to $3.3billion. The development of Vaca Muerta, part of Argentina's Neuquen Basin, has helped to reverse a deficit which peaked at $7 billion in 2013. Vaca Muerta's production peaked at 600,000 barrels per day by 2025. Fernando Bazan, a consultant with Abeceb, said that Vaca Muerta is the engine of growth, as the other basins of conventional hydrocarbons are declining.

He said that oil exports which made up 86% of 2025's energy surplus will also be a key driver in this year.

Argentina's total trade surplus by 2025 is expected to be $11.3 billion.

Agustin Monteverde, a senator and economist by training, expects a large contribution from the energy sector. He projects a surplus in exports due to easier offloading at Vaca Muerta. The greater capacity of transporting oil and gas will not only strengthen exports, but will also decrease our dependence on imported gas. We are also seeing growth in the exports to the United States which is becoming the main buyer.

VACA MUERTA IS A PLACE WHERE COMPANIES INVEST. Companies bet on the continued growth of oil production. YPF, a state-controlled energy company, is developing the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur Project, in conjunction with Pan American Energy Pluspetrol Vista and Pampa Energia. The project includes a 550,000-barrel-per-day pipeline, a plant, and storage tanks at the Punta Colourada terminal, Rio Negro. The project was financed with $2 billion. YPF's chief executive, Horacio Martin, said that the project will generate more than 15 billion dollars in exports each year.

Gas capacity has been increased on a trunk 'pipeline' from Vaca Muerta. Work is also underway to reverse Northern Gas Pipeline in order to supply the northern part of Argentina. This will replace gas that was previously imported from Bolivia, and allow for a greater number of exports to Brazil. Argentina also wants to be a global exporter of liquefied gas, but this would require a major infrastructure in order to transport gas to a port on the Atlantic for liquefaction.

Analysts expect Argentina to still require gas imports in order to meet peak winter demand.

Bazan stated that "the major promises of an increase in gas production would come after 2027". (Reporting and editing by Cassandra Garrison, Nia Williams, and Eliana Raszewski)

(source: Reuters)