Latest News

China's LNG imports will recover to previous levels in 2026, but not 2024.

Analysts say that China's imports of liquefied gas will increase in 2026, as global supply increases and prices fall, while the use for power generation and transportation rises. However, any rise in imports is likely to be modest, due to persistent weakness in China's economy.

Analysts at five companies estimate that the world's biggest LNG?importer?will buy between 3% and 10% more super-chilled fuel in 2018 than last year, or approximately 70.5 to 75.5 millions metric tons.

Even the most optimistic projections are below levels in 2024 following a 10% drop in imports due to a milder winter and weak industrial demand. This was the only instance in the last decade where imports declined outside of the pandemic.

Analysts at Sublime China Information expect that the increasing use of LNG trucks will boost gas demand by 3.6 millions tons this year.

LNG is usually cheaper than gas imported from Russia or produced in the United States. The increase in demand will not be met by either source.

Rystad Energy, a consultancy, estimated that domestic?gas output will increase by 12 billion cubic metres (bcm), compared to a 25-bcm rise in demand.

Gas pipelines in Russia are nearing capacity.

S&P Global Energy (Kpler) and Rystad Energy (Rystad Energy) have forecast that at least 35 millions tons of LNG will be added to the global market this year.

S&P Global Energy predicts that Asian spot LNG prices will average $9.50 to $9.50 for every million British thermal unit, while ICIS expects the price to fall below $9/MMBtu by the second half 2026. Prices were above $12/MMBtu on average last year.

A WEAK ECONOMIC SYSTEM

Although a drop in prices is positive for the demand, it remains to be seen if they will fall enough to encourage 'big purchases' when faced with cheaper alternatives.

"Even if the price drops in 2026, LNG can't compete against domestic or imported pipeline gases, which have a cost advantage. So it remains a supplemental energy source," said Rystad analyst Xiong Wei.

Analysts said that the gas demand of the industrial sector - a major consumer - is also missing, because the property market has been in a state of crisis for five years and there's no sign of an end.

Analyst Yuanda Wang of consultancy ICIS said: "With industrial demand still relatively weak, it is debatable how much more demand a price reduction can stimulate."

(source: Reuters)