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Japan and Europe continue to have near-historical lows in coffee stocks

According to the Coffee Trading Academy, green coffee stocks in Japan, Europe, and the United States, the two largest coffee-consuming regions in the world, were near historic lows in February, despite the recent weakness of coffee prices.

Japan's stock was 2.21 million 60 kg bags. This is a little different from January, and also from last year. It is still far below the 5-year average of 2.75 millions bags for this time of the year.

CTA cited data from the European Coffee Federation to say that green coffee stocks in Europe were 6.8 million bags at the end of February. This was 7.5% less than January and 8% below the same period last year. European stocks could reach 14 million bags by mid-2022.

"High carry costs are one of the reasons that discourage stock building in an inverted market," said Ryan Delany, CTA's founder and chief analyst, referring the fact the spot prices are higher.

He said that European stocks were around 4.5 millions bags below the average of the past 10 years and around 3.5million bags below the average for the last five years.

Analysts claim that the relatively low stocks in major coffee-consuming regions make the market susceptible to price fluctuations in the event of a logistical breakdown or weather-related disruptions in important production regions like Brazil or Vietnam.

The market is closely following the Middle East situation with the Hormuz Strait, and the Suez Canal. Stocks are low, and the coffee flow heavily depends on maritime transport," Gustavo Matias said at Matias Coffee Trading. He added that transportation costs had increased.

Matias said the market was currently "split" on the price direction. One side is looking at the large Brazilian crop that will be coming up and the other side, the tight coffee flow in the short term. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson; Marcelo Teixeira)

(source: Reuters)