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Ukraine's gas exports are falling, and further imports are expected to be low
Analysts said that Ukraine's natural gas imports would remain low at least until April. Purchases could increase if prices on the European market decline. Global gas and oil prices have soared due to the war in Iran. According to data from the operator of the gas transmission systems, Ukraine had planned to import exclusively 0.8 million cubic metres (mcm), as opposed 23 mcm, on Tuesday. Ukraine received gas in the period January to March from Poland, Hungary Slovakia and Romania. After Russia intensified its attacks on Ukrainian gas production in late 2013, Ukraine, which had previously only imported small volumes of gas, increased daily imports to approximately 24 mcm. The transmission system operator?did not respond to a comment request. "The decline in imports was driven by the high prices of natural gas in Europe. These prices remained higher in Ukraine throughout the month of March. In March, the average price of gas in Europe was 9 euros higher per MWh than in Ukraine. This is according to a report by ExPro consultants. It added that "Gas export volumes are expected to remain low through April." ExPro stated that Ukraine can afford to not import gas in April given the higher storage levels than one year ago. The consultancy stated that Ukraine finished the 2025/26 "heating season" on March 10, and the gas reserves in storage were 9.5 billion cubic metres (bcm), which is 1.6 times more than a year ago. Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine's Energy Minister, said that Ukraine plans to begin the heating season in 2026/27 with at least 13 bcm of underground gas storage - roughly the same volume as the previous season. Analysts believe that Ukraine can obtain the gas it needs for the next heating seasons from its own production without having to import expensive imported gas. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier; Pavel Polityuk)
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Source: Tengiz oil field recovered in March, resulting in a 2% increase in Kazakhstan oil production.
An industry source said on Wednesday that oil production in Kazakhstan increased by?2% from February as output ramped-up at the giant 'Tengiz' field. Oilfields in the Caspian Sea's northeastern corner have been pumping at lower levels since January 18th, when fires broke out at power stations. This has increased uncertainty on global markets that are battling a lack of oil due to the?U.S. and Israel war against Iran. The source stated that the field produced an average of 700,000 barrels per day in March. This is a 19% increase from February. According to a source it peaked at 978,000 barrels per day on March 31 exceeding the plan of 930,000 barrels per day. Chevron, which owns the field and operates it in Kazakhstan through?Tengizchevroil, did not respond to comments made by the Kazakhstan energy ministry. Tengiz's output recovery is limited by the weather and the threat of drones attacking the main export route. The attacks on Russian ports in the Baltic Sea also hinder oil exports to Kazakhstan. According to a?source?, the crude oil production in Kazakhstan (excluding gas condensate) rose to 1.64m bpd from 1.58m bpd during March. Reporting by Louise Heavens, Editing by Louise Heavens
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The outlook for US natural gas in the US is largely dependent on three key shale formations: Maguire
Natural gas is used to fuel power plants, homes and factories in the U.S., as well as the booming LNG export industry. The supply of natural gas needed to fuel all these uses comes from a small, ever-narrower portion of America's shales patch. The mismatch between an?increasing number of consumers and a shrinking base of supplies could lead to a structural crunch in the U.S. gas market, which would trigger periods of price volatility and supply stress. Gas prices that are too high would hurt the U.S. economy, and could derail the efforts to make the U.S. a leader in AI and data-driven applications. Gas producers in the United States are therefore under intense pressure to ensure that supply matches demand. SCRUTINY SHALE According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, shale deposits are responsible for 75% of U.S. natural gas supplies. The growth of the biggest shale deposits slowed dramatically in the last few years, as the basins matured. This was due to reduced pressure on the deposit and increased interference with wells from congested drilling spacing. Gas prices that continue to rise would encourage producers to increase their efforts. After more than a decade, the best gas wells are likely to have been tapped. This means that the majority of production efforts are likely to remain concentrated on the basins which have provided the lion's portion of new U.S. gas supplies in the last decade, even if the extraction rates continue their decline. THE BIG 3. In terms of production, the top three shale formations are the Marcellus in Pennsylvania and Appalachia, the Haynesville in Louisiana and Texas and the Permian, in west Texas. According to the EIA these plays will account for 74% or 22.2 trillion cubic foot of shale-gas production in the United States by 2025. In 2016, the combined production of these same deposits amounted to around 8.5 trillion cubic foot, which means that output has increased 161% in that decade. This?growth rate is compared to a 17% increase in other notable shale deposits and a 48.8% increase in the total U.S. Gas Supplies over that time period. It clearly shows the enormous influence these seminal deposits had on the U.S. Gas Sector. As the old saying goes, "what goes up, must come down", and the combined growth of the 'Big 3' has dropped rapidly from its previous peaks. Since 2022, the average annual increase in gas production has slowed down to 6%. The annual growth rate for?total gas production in the U.S. has been around 3% since then. Different Strokes The Big 3 are often lumped into one group when discussing shale. However, there are important differences between them in terms of their deposit characteristics and growth limitations. Marcellus Shale, a massive deposit in Pennsylvania, produced nearly one-third of the shale gas supplied to the United States last year. It has also consistently provided the lowest cost gas for the past decade. Marcellus's relatively shallow shale depths and thick, consistent formations are ideal for modern gas extraction, while its proximity with large East Coast populations centers makes it profitable to distribute its gas. Even after a decade-long continuous depletion of reserves, exploration firm Kingdom Exploration estimates that between 50 and 70% of technically recoverable natural gas is still left. The Marcellus region is still facing major challenges to its growth. These include a lack of pipeline connections with new markets, the difficult permitting process to build new pipelines and long distances from major LNG export hubs. Haynesville, the deposit that produced 16% of U.S. Shale Gas last year, has much closer ties to LNG exporters who are Haynesville's main customers. Haynesville producers, however, are sensitive to market price fluctuations and reduce their activity when prices fall for long periods. Haynesville's reserves are also estimated to be huge, but they will cost more to extract, as the easy pockets are tapped. Permian Basin is different from Haynesville and Marcellus in that it's predominantly an oil?reserve with natural gas on the side. Permian oil is the most important product. In 2025, the basin will produce around 6.5 millions barrels of crude oil per day. This represents around half the total U.S. crude production. Gas is a by-product of the oil industry, so it is priced accordingly by producers in order to get buyers to buy their gas. Permian Gas is among the most affordable available. However, limited pipeline connectivity can cause supplies to accumulate in the basin. This will further lower prices. The tightening of rules on flaring, the burning off of excess gas, means that Permian Gas producers will need to be more disciplined with their future storage and offtake flows. The high crude oil price also means that more oil and gas production will be expected in the Permian basin by 2026. This could have a greater and more consistent impact on the national gas markets. Gas market watchers will be able to tell how the Big 3 basins interact with each other by the way the market develops in the future. Increasing production in the U.S. will increase power and LNG supplies. The idea of U.S. dominance in energy may have to be rethought if gas production from the Big 3 continues to fall. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Maguire: Record wind output shields UK from worst effects of Iran war.
Wind farms have helped to boost clean energy supplies in the United Kingdom, allowing them to reach new highs by 2026. They also allowed power companies to reduce their use of fossil fuels. The increase in wind power has shielded the UK's power system from the worst of the effects of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran that has caused fossil fuel supplies to be disrupted and pushed oil and gas prices sky high. Data from LSEG show that power supplies?from UK Wind Farms during the first three months of 2026 increased?31% compared to?the same month in 2025. This helped lift overall clean energy output by 16% and total power production by 4%. The increased clean power production has allowed utilities to reduce their use of fossil fuels. This was especially true in the last month, when gas prices in the region spiked after the Iran conflict. The UK's wind-heavy energy system could serve as a model for other countries looking to reduce their fossil fuel use. WIND MOMENTUM LSEG data shows that the UK's output from metered turbine farms - which feed directly into grids - increased by 33% between January and March 2025 compared to those same months. This is equivalent to 33,000 megawatts per 30 minutes. The output of smaller embedded wind farms, which are connected to local distribution networks, is expected to increase by around 27% between 2025 and around 7,800 MW per thirty minutes. The output of both categories of wind farms during the window from January to March was the highest for at least 2023 and has helped wind power become the UK's largest source of power. In 2025, wind farms will account for 33% of the total UK electricity supply during January-March. FOSSIL FUEL CURB LSEG data indicates that biomass plants in the UK, which burn wood pellets, municipal waste, and other organic materials, have also contributed to the UK's clean energy total so far this year and have helped offset declines at nuclear, solar, and hydroelectric plants. The UK's power companies were able to reduce the use of gas power plants by rationing their output from January to March, a drop of?16% compared to last year. In March, the drop in total gas-fired output was 26% lower than March 2025. This cut in UK gas usage by power companies could help UK utilities avoid major price increases. March was the month when the global gas market reacted the most to the U.S.-Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. UK benchmark gas prices have risen by 74% since the end of February, just before the Iran attack began. This is more than the 67% increase that mainland Europe has seen in gas prices during this period. Some industrial gas users in the UK have been forced to pay more for gas over the past few weeks. This has kept gas supplies in the UK tight. But because of the sharply increased wind generation in 2026, power producers were able to limit exposure to gas, which could limit further increases in UK power bills. PRICE WATCH The wholesale power price will reflect how well UK energy firms have managed the Iran crisis thus far. According to LSEG, the average spot wholesale power price in the UK for the first three quarters of 2026 was around 89 Euros per Megawatt Hour. This compares with an average of around?101 euros in Germany, around 137 euros in Italy and around 70 euros for France. The UK's power discount to Germany, Europe's biggest economy and manufacturer, is a relatively recent phenomenon. UK power costs were consistently higher than Germany's before the Russian invasion of Ukraine 2022, which sent regional gas prices skyrocketing. Since then, the UK's energy firms have aggressively increased renewables capacity to reduce the country’s dependence on imported fossil fuels. According to Ember, the UK has routinely secured more electricity through clean energy sources than Germany. The UK power system may still feel the impact of the Iran war after the wind production slows over the summer. The UK's wind farms have, for the moment, shown that they can generate a lot of power at home. This may encourage other regions to expand their wind power footprints. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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The Iran war has increased the cost of beauty products, from plastic jars to transportation.
The Iran War is affecting the supply chain of cosmetics, driving up the cost of plastic jars, lipstick tubes, and transport. It also reminds the beauty industry of the fragility of global trade routes, which are even needed to make a tub of face lotion. The cost pressure was a common theme at the largest trade show in the industry, held in Bologna (northern Italy), as the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane entered its fifth week. The Cosmoprof trade fair attracted 3,100 exhibitors and 255,000 attendees from 150 countries, including companies looking for packaging solutions as well as retailers scouting out new products. Five industry executives said that the cosmetics companies were most concerned about rising raw material costs and transportation costs as a result of higher oil prices. Simone Dominici is the CEO of the Italian cosmetics group Kiko. She estimates that additional logistical costs will be around 1.5 million euros ($1.7million) over the course of the year. Kiko operates over 1,000 stores in the world, selling lipsticks as low as?5 euros or mascaras at 7.5 euros. Dominici added that the Middle East is experiencing a shortage of containers and goods, and the prices of some chemical components, packaging, and other products, many of which are sourced in the Far East, would add to the pressure. Yonwoo, which makes containers for L'Oreal, K-beauty and other companies, has said that the Iran crisis is disrupting supply chains and it's scrambling to get plastic resin in order to make pots for cosmetics and skincare. ALTERNATIVE ROUTES Dominici stated that the industry may also be affected by a softer demand among consumers, whose purchasing power has been eroded due to inflation. He warned, "It is the perfect storm." Intercos, listed on the Milan Stock Exchange, and Ancorotti Group (privately owned), two of Italy's biggest contract manufacturers, both said that they have not faced any major shortages, but pointed to higher logistic costs, longer delivery times, and rising raw materials prices as obstacles. "Lead time has increased as ports and routes have grown longer." Ancorotti's Chief Executive, Roberto Bottino, said that what used to take eight weeks can now take 12-14 weeks. Bottino said that some clients are using rail to travel to Asia. Ancorotti Group generates around 220 millions euros in revenue per year by selling products to beauty brands throughout the world. Bottino stated that it is difficult to imagine the cost increases in the supply chain not being ultimately passed on downstream. "Middle East consumers value quality, and they are willing to pay more for added value. So, being unable to reach these markets could have a negative effect", said Fabio Francochina, Chairman of haircare products manufacturer Framesi. Franchina stated that the distributor of the company in the region is exploring alternative delivery routes. He said that they were looking into options such as shipping goods to Jeddah, and then transporting them by road instead of through Persian Gulf ports. He added that some goods are now being shipped via air rather than sea, which further increases costs. According to Cosmetica Italia (the industry association), Italy will produce 18 billion euros worth of cosmetics by 2025. This includes 8.4 billion euro in exports. It is the fifth largest exporter of beauty goods in the world and one of its leading producers for hair dyes and eye make-up.
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Starmer: UK needs closer EU partnerships due to volatile world
Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of Britain, said that the global instability brought about by the 'war in Iran' means Britain should align itself more closely with the European Union for security and economic reasons. This is after Donald Trump had criticised the United States. Starmer, at a press event aimed to ease public concerns over rising energy costs, said that the impact of war could "define us for a lifetime" and be similar to the rise in energy prices during the 1970s. Starmer, who spoke to reporters, said that the EU and Canada should be "more?ambitious" in their economic, security, and partnership efforts. Trump criticised Europe on Tuesday for refusing to join him in his war against Iran. He specifically mentioned Britain and France as the transatlantic relationship deteriorated due to the conflict which has driven up energy prices. The President warned Britain and other countries to "learn how to fight yourself" as the U.S. would "no longer be there to help you". Starmer stated that it was "clear" that the Brexit deal agreed by the previous Conservative administration in 2020 caused "deep harm to our economy". (Reporting and writing by Sarah Young; editing by Catarina demony).
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Bahrain releases revised UN Hormuz draft but does not enforce it
Bahrain circulated a revised draft U.N. Security Council resolution on protecting commercial ships?in and around Strait of Hormuz. The language was retained, authorising "all necessary measures" but removing a reference to 'binding enforcement. The shipping through this waterway has already been slowed down to a near halt, after Iran attacked vessels during its conflict with Israel and the United States. Bahrain's first draft was seen and supported by other Gulf Arab countries and Washington. It explicitly invoked Chapter VII (of the U.N. Charter) which allows the Security Council authorise measures from sanctions to military power. Diplomats stated that adoption of such a resolution was unlikely as Iran's partners Russia, and China were expected to veto the measure if needed. A Security Council Resolution requires at least 9 votes in favor and no vetoes by its five permanent members, the United States of America, Russia, China and Britain. The revised text, which diplomats say is still being negotiated, does not mention Chapter VII but keeps the language that goes with it. The bill would allow states to use "all necessary means" (either individually or in voluntary coalitions) in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, as well as the Gulf of Oman, for the purpose of ensuring passage and preventing interference with international navigation. This includes within or near the territorial waters. The draft encourages all states who rely on commercial maritime routes that pass through the Strait of Gibraltar to coordinate their defensive efforts. This includes escorting merchant vessels. Diplomats have said that they hope to vote on the text by Thursday. (Reporting and editing by John Irish)
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If the Middle East continues to be at war, Ryanair will see a disruption in jet fuel supply as early as May.
Sky News reported on Wednesday that the Middle East conflict could disrupt jet fuel supplies to Europe if it continues. This could put up to 25% of Ryanair's supply at risk in May and June. IATA, the International Air Transport Association, estimates that between 25% and 30% of Europe's demand for jet fuel comes from the Persian Gulf. It warns this makes it one of the most vulnerable regions to any impact the U.S.-Israeli conflict may have on the supply. O'Leary stated that if the Straits of Hormuz are reopened by the middle or end of April and the war is over, there will be no supply risk. "If the 'war' continues and the disruption of supply continues, there is a reasonable risk that a low level, perhaps 10%, 20% or 25% of our supplies could be at risk throughout May and June." O'Leary stated that O'Leary, the Irish airline and Europe's largest airline by passenger numbers has not cut flights because it's?fuel supplies are currently secure, but that there is still a risk of "significantly increased" ticket prices through May, April, or?June. He said in Sunday's Business Post that he expects?summer airfares will rise by more than 3 percent year-on-year because of a combination?of capacity constraints and higher oil costs for less?well?hedged competitors. Budget carrier announced in January that it had met 80% of its jet-fuel requirements for the fiscal year to the end of march 2027, based on crude oil prices of $67 a barrel. (Written by Padraic HALpin in Dublin, edited by Sarah Young.)
The Finnish Border Guard reports that Russian oil ports in the Baltic region have been halted a week after drone attacks by Ukraine.
The Finnish Border Guard, who monitors maritime traffic in the region, reported that oil and LNG shipments were stopped on Wednesday. This was more than a fortnight after Ukrainian drones began attacking these Russian export hubs. Finland was able to see smoke after Ukrainian drones caused fires in Russia's Baltic port, leading to a suspension of fuel loadings last Wednesday. The attacks continue and Ust-Luga has been?hit on Tuesday for the fifth consecutive day in 10 days.
"At this time, only a few oil tankers leave the oil ports of Primorsk or Ust-Luga." Mikko Hirvi, Head of Maritime Safety and Security at the Finnish Border Guard, said that we are referring to individual vessels.
Over the past few years, 40-50 tankers carrying Russian oil or liquefied gas have passed through the Baltic Sea every week.
The most severe dislocation in modern history
The shutdown is the worst oil supply disruption in modern Russian history, as the second largest oil exporter in the world. According to calculations, the Russian oil export capacity ceased on Wednesday last week. This included the Baltic ports and the Druzhba Pipeline, which had been damaged by Russian strikes towards the end of January. Moscow's impact is to limit the increase in crude revenue it would have received from the Iran War that caused unprecedented disruption in oil shipments.
Laura Solanko is a senior?Adviser at Bank of Finland and a specialist on?Russian Energy Markets. She said that the price of oil at Primorsk was $25 less than the Brent benchmark at the beginning of the year.
If the discount remained the same, the export price of crude could be as high as $70-75 per barrel, she said. This means that Russia would lose more than 70-75 million dollars every day if it halted its Baltic Sea crude oil imports. This excluded oil products that sell at higher prices.
She stated that, before the Ukraine drone attack, Russia exported over two million barrels of oil and oil-based products per day via the Baltic. (Reporting from Anne Kauranen, Helsinki; Editing by Barbara Lewis.)
(source: Reuters)