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Andy Home: Gulf aluminium disruption has ripple effects on the alumina industry.

The Iran war has caused the aluminum market to focus on what's not coming through the Strait of Hormuz. There is a?equally important problem: What is not coming in.

Gulf Aluminium smelters depend heavily on alumina imports, an intermediate product between bauxite and metal, for their operations.

Six smelters are located in the region, but only two refineries produce alumina. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) Al?Taweelah, a plant of Emirates Global Aluminium, was damaged by Iranian missiles. The same reason is causing the smelter to be out of service at the site, and other smelters have reduced their capacity.

As shipments are diverted away from the Gulf, this disruption will have a first-round effect on the alumina markets that is already saturated.

Second-round effects could include further reductions in Gulf metal production, as smelters are running low on raw materials.

China is the only one who wins here, as it absorbs all of the displaced aluminum.

Under Pressure

Even before the start of the Iran war, the alumina market was already under pressure.

Since the beginning of this year, the London Metal Exchange price (LME), which is based on S&P Global Platts’ assessment of the Australian FOB price, has hovered around $300 per metric tonne.

This is a far cry compared to the wild rally in 2024 when prices soared above $800 after a series supply shocks.

Since then, the market has shifted from a shortage to a surplus due to the continued expansion of production capacity in China?and Indonesia.

Macquarie Bank estimated the global surplus to be 2.54 million tonnes last year, and forecasted a surplus of 1,26 million tons by 2026.

The bank just increased its estimate of 2026 oversupply to 2.2 million tonnes as Gulf-bound shipments were redirected onto the seaborne market.

The length of time the Strait is closed to shipping will be a determining factor.

INPUT RISKS

The more time it takes for the Strait to be reopened, the higher the risk that?further cuts will be announced to those already made by Qatar's Qatalum producer and Aluminium Bahrain.

Ma'aden in Saudi Arabia is the only fully integrated Gulf producer. It operates its own bauxite mining operation, feeding Ras Al Khair alumina refining plant.

According to Wood Mackenzie, Ma'aden has arranged emergency supplies for others and produces more alumina that its smelter can use.

Alumina isn't the only problem for Gulf operators.

According to AZ Global Consulting, the logistical problems could be even worse for coal tar pitch which is used to make the carbon anodes that are used in the smelting processes.

It said that while other carbon inputs, such as calcined coal and petroleum coke, can be "diverted or?stockpiled and rebagged and trucked," liquid pitch needs heated storage, heated trucks, and heated silos to keep it molten between the loading point and discharge point.

These facilities are rare and difficult to improvise. "Pitch could be the most difficult logistical problem in 'the carbon chain' if disruptions continue," AZ Global stated.

CHINA WINS

China is the main beneficiary of the disruption to the alumina processing chain.

According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics which gathers data from customs statistics, it imported 338.315 tonnes?of aluminum in March. This is the highest monthly total since January 2024.

AZ Global anticipates that imports will remain strong in the months to come, thanks to an open import arbitrage between local and international prices.

China's smelters have been able to enjoy strong margins as the Gulf Crisis has also sent aluminium prices up to four-year levels.

According to the International Aluminium Institute, Western production in March fell by 312,000 tons on an annualised basis due to restrictions in the Gulf while Chinese production increased by 88,000 tonnes.

China's share in global production grew to a record 60.2% in the last month. This ratio is expected to continue to rise as the Iran War takes its toll on Gulf smelters.

Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)