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Vietnam's plan to avoid US tariffs

According to UN data, U.S. president Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on virtually all Vietnam's exports to the top market. These goods, which accounted for more than $142 billion in sales last year, amounted to about 30% of Vietnam’s GDP.

Vietnam has benefited from Trump's trade war against China during his first term. However, Vietnamese officials and foreign businesses are uncertain of the outcome. Vietnam is one of the biggest surpluses in the U.S., and it meets many criteria for reciprocal tariffs.

Here are some measures that Vietnamese officials are either considering, or have already flagged as possible ways to avoid U.S. tariffs.

DUTIES AND NON-TRADE BARRIERS

Vietnam's average duties are higher than U.S. duty rates, and it also charges a value-added tax. Some economists have calculated, however, that the effective bilateral tariff rate in Vietnam is lower.

The Trump administration has not yet revealed the rates it is considering for determining possible reciprocal duties, but U.S. officials have used average duties as a benchmark.

Vietnam has shown an openness for compromises. However, lowering the duties on U.S. products could force it to lower them on other trading partners as well.

In its 2024 report, the Office of the United States Trade Representative listed a number of non-trade barriers that Vietnam has imposed, such as import bans, complicated registration requirements and technical and sanitary obstacles.

Imports of Energy

Officials have stated that Vietnamese officials have discussed several times with their counterparts in the United States possible purchases of U.S. LNG for Vietnam's fledgling industry. However, no concrete steps have yet been taken.

The country also plans to relaunch their nuclear power program and is searching for suppliers of nuclear technology.

Agriculture Goods

Vietnam's Trade Minister has stated that it is willing to import more U.S. agricultural products. The increase in agricultural imports will not significantly reduce trade imbalances, as Vietnam imported farm products worth $3.4 billion from the U.S.

TRANSHIPMENT OF STEEL

Vietnam has been suspected for a long time of being a hub of transhipment of Chinese goods into the U.S. due to the large volumes of intermediate products it imports. It has been sanctioned for some products, such as solar panels.

Vietnam decided last week to impose temporary antidumping duties on Chinese products. It faces the risk of 25 percent tariffs on steel exports to America, on top of the antidumping duties Washington already levies on Vietnamese steel.

DEFENCE, StarLINK

Officials with knowledge of the situation say that Hanoi is in advanced talks with U.S. defense firms about the purchase of military transport aircraft Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules.

The Vietnamese Parliament approved in February the legal framework of a pilot program that would allow Elon Musk to use Starlink's satellite internet services and security services within Vietnam. Pham Minh Chinh, Prime Minister of Vietnam, said that the government is working hard to issue a license to Starlink as soon as possible.

PLANES

VietJet, the Vietnamese budget airline, has agreed to purchase 200 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft in a multibillion dollar deal that was first signed in 2016, and then revised later.

The company has not received any planes, despite stating that it was expecting to receive its first jets in the last year. The company has expressed an interest in expanding this deal, but without revealing how.

Vietnam Airlines, the flag carrier, has also signed an agreement to purchase 50 Boeing 737 Max jets.

DEPORTATIONS

A U.S. lawyer confirmed that Vietnam issues travel documents to Vietnamese nationals who are detained in the U.S.

MONETARY POLICY

Trump's first term as President ended with the Treasury Department declaring Vietnam a currency manipulator.

Now, the country is on the U.S. watchlist as a possible manipulator. The central bank of Vietnam has allowed the Vietnamese currency to fall against the dollar in recent months.

The central bank said that it would continue to monitor Trump's policies and make adjustments.

GOLF DIPLOMATICS

In October, the local partner of The Trump Organization announced that it had agreed to build a golf course worth $1.5 billion in Vietnam.

(source: Reuters)