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Minister says Ukraine's grain harvest in 2025 could fall by 10%

According to the most pessimistic estimations, Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval stated on Tuesday that Ukraine's grain harvest in 2025 may decline by 10%, to 51 million metric tonnes, compared to 56,7 million tons in 2024.

Ukraine is the world's largest producer of grains, oilseeds and cereals. However, the harvest depends heavily on the weather during the spring and autumn months.

Farmers are also afraid to plant or harvest crops due to the military risks that are associated with Russia's ongoing invasion. A number of areas have been mined or seized.

"We are in for a difficult season." A warm and unusually dry winter was followed by prolonged rains in some areas. Koval said that we should expect a lower harvest.

The most negative forecast is 10%. According to predictions, the grain harvest is expected to be minus 10% and oilseeds will be minus 5%. "It's not a disaster, but God willing, we will harvest all," he said.

Koval gave the first detailed projection for 2025. He said that Ukraine could harvest approximately 26 million tonnes of corn, 4.5 millions tons barley, 1,5 million tons minor grains, 11,5 million tons sunflower seeds and 11,000,000 tons sugar beet.

He estimated that the wheat harvest could be between 20 to 22 million tons, and that the final number would depend on the weather and war-related variables.

Koval stated that the total oilseed production in 2025 could drop to 20.16 millions tons, from 21.18 million tons in 2024. This is partly due to the 600,000-ton decrease in rapeseed.

Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of sunflower oil in the world.

Analysts predict that Ukraine will export 40.9 million tonnes of grain in 2025/26, which includes 15 to 15.5 millions tons of wheat.

According to the analyst ASAP Agri, last week Ukraine's exports of wheat were expected to decline in 2025/26 due to changes in EU import policies, uncertain harvest prospects and better crop outlooks in EU importing nations. (Reporting and editing by David Evans; reporting by Pavel Polityuk)

(source: Reuters)