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Western powers failed to secure shipping on the Red Sea. Hormuz is going to be more difficult

Western allies negotiating a way to protect energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz face a harsh reality. A similar effort that began years ago in the Red Sea cost billions of dollars, and ultimately failed to defeat Yemen's Houthis. The Red Sea experience, which cost billions of dollars and resulted in four ships being sunk and more than $1billion spent on weapons, is a stark reminder of the Strait of Hormuz. This shipping artery, used by a fifth or the world's oil and LNG supply, has been blocked by Iran - an adversary more powerful than the Houthis. Iran's threats against the strait, and its attacks on the energy infrastructure of nearby Gulf nations has sent oil prices soaring. This is the biggest disruption in oil and gas supply in history. Without the reopening of the strait, energy, food, and other products will be more expensive. Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf Sabah Al-Sabah stated in a fiery live video stream to the CERAWeek Energy Conference in Houston, Texas on Tuesday that "there is no substitute for Strait of Hormuz". It is the world's Strait, according to international law and in practical terms. On Tuesday, U.N. Security Council Members were negotiating resolutions to protect the strait. Some nations, like Bahrain, took a strong stance, which would authorize the use "all necessary measures" to defend the strait – including the use force.

The interview was conducted with 19 maritime and security experts, who discussed the many challenges that the U.S. faces in protecting the Strait. Iran has more sophisticated military forces than the Houthis. It also has an arsenal of drones, missiles and floating mines.

The Red Sea is a much more difficult place to defend convoy operations than the Strait of Hormuz, said retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery. He was part of the 1988 U.S. oil tanker escorts that crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the Iran-Iraq War.

This is a major concern for U.S. president Donald Trump, who must justify the Iran War to the inflation-weary American public now that gasoline costs nearly $4 per gallon. Analysts said that the spike in energy costs is unlikely to reverse itself until the waterway is opened. Trump has not been committed to U.S. involvement. He first said that the U.S. Navy would escort vessels when necessary, and then, more recently, he stated that other nations should lead the effort. Since the joint U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran began on February 28, Iran has blocked many ships from entering the'maritime chokepoint. A lawmaker in Iran told state media that Iran is considering the idea of charging vessels who want to enter the strait a fee.

THE HORMUZ QUAGMIRE In December 2023 the U.S. launched a mission to protect Red Sea shipping against the Houthis. European nations joined in a few months after. The Houthis sank 4 ships between 2024-2025, despite the fact that the allies destroyed hundreds of missiles and drones. The passageway that once carried 12% of the world's trade is now mostly avoided by shippers, who prefer to travel around the Horn of Africa, a journey which takes much longer.

Joshua Tallis is a naval analyst with the research firm CNA.

The danger zone surrounding the Strait of Hormuz can be up to five times larger than the Houthis attack zone surrounding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait which flows into the Red Sea. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a professional army with access to funding and its own weapon factories.

Military experts say that to provide escorts in the Strait, up to 12 large warships like destroyers would be needed, supported by drones, helicopters and jets. This is to "account" for the limited space available for maneuvering. To protect against drones and explosive-laden unmanned or manned vessels, overhead air coverage is essential.

Analysts at SSY said that while a destroyer could intercept missiles, it couldn't sweep mines simultaneously, manage GPS disruption, or counter drone-boat swarms coming from multiple directions.

Analysts think that Iran's IRGC fighters are hiding missiles and drones in caves and buildings along the steep mountainous coast. Experts said that in some areas, the shore is so close to ships, drones can swarm them within five to ten minutes.

"There are drones, ballistic missiles and floating mines. Even if you could destroy these three capabilities, there would still be suicide operations," said Adel Bakerawan, Director of the European Institute for Studies on the Middle East & North Africa.

Tom Sharpe, retired commander of the Royal Navy, says that the U.S. has not faced these threats in the Red Sea. He said that the stakes are high for dealing with these threats.

If (the Americans) lost a destroyer, that would change the equation. Sharpe said that 300 people could be killed, referring to the?potential death of U.S. sailors. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated earlier this month that there is no evidence that Iran has mined the Strait. This was after reports that Iran deployed a dozen mines along the waterway.

Bryan Clark, a Hudson Institute expert on autonomous warfare, says that a combination of mine clearance, military escorts, and air patrols will eventually allow the strait to be reopened.

Clark said that it could take months to finally erode the IRGC's threat.

(source: Reuters)