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Maguire: Global coal markets are jolted by stronger East Asian imports

In August, global shipments of thermal coke - used to generate electricity - reached their highest level since the end of 2024 on the backs of strong import orders from China, Japan and South Korea.

After nine consecutive months of declining monthly coal exports year-over-year, there were expectations that 2025 could be the first year in which global coal trade will contract.

The increased regional interest in coal imports is due to a combination of lower domestic coal production in China, the world's largest coal consumer, and higher factory activity in East Asia over the past few months.

Continued restrictions on coal mining by China, combined with a higher demand for electricity as we head into winter, could lead to a steady increase in the overall imports of coal for the remainder of 2025. This would scupper hopes that coal flows will continue to fall.

A new downturn in the manufacturing sector, combined with milder temperatures in Asia in 2026, could reduce overall coal consumption and imports. This would keep coal export volumes for 2025 on track to fall.

Here are some key data points that coal traders should be tracking to determine if the recent increase in imports is a sign of reversing the trend that has been weakening for months or if it's just a temporary blip on the global decline in coal export volumes.

Key Markets

According to Kpler data, total thermal coal exports were 85.34 millions metric tons in August, the first time since December last year that this number was above 81.

The total for August was 6.4 million tons higher than the previous month. This means that thermal coal shipments have increased two months in a row after a series of monthly reductions starting late in 2024. The August reading also marked the first monthly increase compared to the previous month since October 2024. This could have an impact on the market sentiment, if further gains in import volume are recorded moving forward.

China, South Korea, and Japan led the increase in global coal imports from the previous month to August.

Kpler data show that China (up by 5.3 millions tons), Japan (+0.6 million tonnes) and South Korea (+1.8 million tons), collectively increased their purchases from 47.9 to 47.9 Mt in August.

China, South Korea, and Japan's combined monthly imports increased by 19% from the previous month, and caused regional coal markets to tighten.

LSEG data shows that the average coal export price from Newcastle in Australia reached a five-month high of $111 per ton, compared with around $106 between June and July.

Key Indicators

To track the future import potential of coal, traders will need to closely monitor coal mine production in China. A constant pushback against excessive capacity has resulted in a reduction in coal mine output.

China's latest monthly production estimate put the country's coal output at 390.5 millions tons. This marked a decline year-over-year but followed a roughly 3-percent increase in total coal output in 2025.

Trackers of the coal market will need to keep tabs on China's massive industrial economy in order to gauge its overall energy and coke needs.

China's factory output in August grew at its fastest pace in five month on the back of a surge in new orders.

The continued expansion of the industrial sector will lead to a greater demand for coal and other energy sources, as well as a higher production of key ingredients.

The increased industrial activity in China will likely also spillover into Japan and South Korea's economies, as they have closely linked supply chains for parts and goods.

Finaly, the weather conditions in East Asia during the last months of 2025 are also likely to play a significant role in regional coal appetite.

Forecasts for the period of early 2026 indicate that temperatures will be slightly higher than long-term averages in Japan, South Korea, and China, resulting in a lower-than-normal demand for heat.

These forecasts will change as the coldest months of year approach. If extended cold snaps occur, coal demand is likely to increase.

In East Asia, the coal-fired electricity generation reaches its annual peak around November and Decemeber when cold weather increases demand for heating.

In China, the mine production caps may make it difficult for utilities to increase their inventory levels this year.

Power firms may boost their coal imports to meet their inventory requirements if the curbs on new mine production persist this winter. This could help maintain recent upward momentum in global coal order.

The increased competition between China and Japan for coal may encourage buyers from Japan, South Korea, and other countries to increase their coal import orders. This could lead to an even greater increase in coal orders.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)