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Asian area LNG gains amidst cooler weather condition, more powerful Europe gas costs

Asian spot melted gas (LNG) rates increased today to their greatest level of the year so far, tracking gains in European gas and amidst colder temperatures in both regions.

The average LNG rate for January shipment into northeast Asia << LNG-AS > rose to $14.60 per million British thermal systems ( mmBtu), market sources estimated.

Today's more escalations in between Russia and Ukraine have returned a high danger premium to European gas and by default Asia's JKM market, regardless of actual gas products being continuous, said Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank London, of the Asian Japan-Korea-Marker benchmark.

European benchmark gas costs at the Dutch TTF hub have been trading at 1 year highs on issues over Russian gas supply and as cold temperatures reduced gas stockpiles.

Russia's Gazprom last weekend halted gas supplies to Austrian gas importer OMV in a dispute over payments, while Russia's war with Ukraine heightened.

While the danger of Europe losing more Russian gas has lifted the TTF consistently above the JKM market for the very first time considering that end-2022, the spread remains narrow and might reverse to a JKM premium in the short-term if Russian circulations continue and the circumstance stabilises, added Schmit.

However provided the accumulation of fighting today we might equally see the TTF maintain its premium over the JKM for a while as Europe scrambles to import LNG freights. In either case, markets will be higher for longer.

A minimum of 5 LNG cargoes have actually diverted from Asia to Europe on greater gas prices after Gazprom halted products to OMV. However northeast Asian delivered markets have risen in competition with Europe, with a minimum of one diverted provider appearing to have changed back to head for Asia again, said Samuel Good, head of LNG prices at product rates agency Argus.

In Japan, while lower temperatures have actually just recently resulted in greater gas usage and power prices, nuclear restarts could decrease dependence on gas-fired power generation and ease LNG need, stated Rystad Energy in a note.

It included that the Japan Meteorological Firm still projections a 50-60% likelihood of above-average temperatures till Nov. 29.

On The Other Hand, S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its day-to-day North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price standard for freights delivered in January on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $14.800/ mmBtu. on Nov. 21, a $0.25/ mmBtu discount rate to the January gas rate at. the Dutch TTF center.

Argus examined the price at $14.790/ mmBtu, while Spark. Commodities examined the December shipment cost at. $ 14.635/ mmBtu.

The U.S. arbitrage, diverting a physical cargo from one. market to another, is signalling prompt month U.S. cargoes are. incentivised for a ninth straight week to trip to Northwest. Europe, said Glow Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.

Nevertheless, it is much more minimal than recently due to. a significant week on week increase in the JKM-TTF spread, as. well as record low freight rates in the Atlantic basin, he. added.

In LNG freight, Atlantic rates fell to $15,500/ day on. Friday, erasing gains made in the last two weeks, Afghan. stated. Pacific rates decreased to $23,000/ day.

(source: Reuters)