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Mideast conflict turbocharges diesel prices, squeezing Europe: Bousso

The conflict between Israel and Iran has increased global diesel prices. Gains have outstripped the increase in crude oil prices. This highlights the vulnerability of Europe's diesel-heavy consumers, even though the refiners are rewarded.

Benchmark Brent crude has risen 10% to more than $76 per barrel since the Israel-Iran War began on June 13. This reflects investor concerns over a potential disruption in supply, especially issues related to Strait of Hormuz – a narrow waterway that connects Iran and Oman and through which a fifth of crude oil and refined petroleum products pass.

The speculation that U.S. president Donald Trump would join Israel's election campaign has heightened concerns over escalation, which could lead to an energy shock around the world.

In Europe, diesel prices are on the rise. Since June 12, the benchmark European ICE low sulphur gasoil price has risen by nearly 15%. The rally of the past few days was based on the recent strengthening of diesel prices, which were a result from robust global demand as well as low inventories across Europe and America.

According to Kpler, the Middle East will be a major diesel exporter in 2024. This represents 17% of all diesel imports by sea. Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are the main exporters. They have invested in increasing their domestic refinery capacity to meet exports in recent years.

According to the International Energy Agency, diesel, which is used in Europe for both private and commercial transport as well as for industrial purposes, will account for 44% (or 13.5 million barrels per day) of the total oil demand in the region in 2024.

According to the IEA, Europe imported more than 1.2 million bpd of diesel last year. This is about a fifth the total consumption of diesel in the region. The IEA says that Europe's dependence on diesel imports leaves consumers and businesses in the region highly vulnerable to any disruptions in global diesel shipments, which could happen soon.

The price increase has also been a good thing for European oil refiners.

According to LSEG, European diesel refining profits have risen over 30% since the Israel/Iran conflict started. This is their highest level in more than fourteen months. It is noteworthy that the increase in crude oil prices coincided with this rise, since refining margins are usually inversely related to feedstock costs. The European refiners, on the other hand, are benefiting from the fact diesel prices have increased faster than crude.

RUSSIA LOOPHOLE

The market is also facing long-term volatility, as the Middle East tensions have a significant impact on the short-term outlook for diesel prices in Europe.

The European diesel market has undergone a major shift since the European Union (EU) and Britain (UK) banned Russian oil imports to the region following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022. According to Kpler, the share of Russian diesel imported into the region dropped from 40% to less than 1% in 2018.

In order to replace Russian diesel imports, purchases were made from the Middle East and Turkey. These'substitutes,' however, were often refined Russian crude oil, especially diesel from India. This was possible because Western sanctions had limited the price of Russian oil.

The European Union has now proposed a ban on imports of refined oil products from Russia. A ban of this kind would be difficult to monitor and implement, as refiners use a mixture of crude grades to produce refined products.

In the short and long term, there are both uncertainties in the European diesel market. This means that significant volatility is expected for a while to come. This column is interesting to you? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.

(source: Reuters)