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Bousso: Europe is at risk of falling victim to US "energy dominance"

It might seem audacious to the world's biggest natural gas producer that it demands its largest market stop purchasing from a rival. This is exactly what happened this week in Milan at the annual meeting of the global gas industry.

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum delivered a clear message at the beginning of the Gastech Conference. Doug Burgum, the Interior Secretary of the United States, delivered a message that was clear: Europe should cease purchasing gas from Russia. The United States will gladly replace it. Burgum said that American energy dominance is a major part of Donald Trump's agenda in his second term. It aims to bring peace and prosperity around the world.

Burgum, the former governor of North Dakota's oil-and-gas-rich state, said: "We can achieve peace around the globe by selling our energy. Our friends and allies don't need to purchase from our enemies."

Washington has been increasing pressure on Europe to stop buying Russian oil and gas in order to cut down on the Kremlin war economy. It also wants to put pressure on Vladimir Putin, President of Ukraine to accept a ceasefire.

"ENERGY DOMINANCE" Europe has drastically reduced its Russian gas imports since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022. It aims to completely phase out Russian gas purchases by 2027 if not sooner.

Despite this, the region continues to import Russian gas via the Turkstream pipeline.

Importantly, Europe may have just swapped one dependence for another. Most of the Russian pipeline volumes in the region have been replaced with LNG imports, and most of these have come from the United States.

The first half of 2025 will see Europe's imports of LNG increase by 25% over the previous year to a record high of 92 billion cube metres (bcm). Over 55% of these imports were accounted for by the United States, with Russia coming in second at 14%.

In light of this new reality, Europe is forced to accept the energy agenda of the Trump administration.

Ditte Jorgensen, Director General of Energy at the European Commission, told a conference that the EU will continue to enhance its energy partnership with America.

She said that the U.S. energy dominance policy is complementary to her strategy of replacing Russian oil in our system.

These words are already being translated into action. On Monday, Italy's energy company Edison and Shell signed a deal to increase LNG purchases, among other things, as part of a commitment to strengthen their energy relations. On Wednesday, Italy's Edison energy company signed a contract with Shell for the purchase of around 0.7 millions tonnes per year in U.S. gas starting in 2028. The deal could last up to 15-years. Some EU countries, notably Hungary and Slovakia, are opposed to this U.S. pivot. Both countries rely heavily on Russian gas and oil, and so both opposed the ban on imports earlier this year.

Peter Szijjarto, Hungary's foreign minister, said that Hungary "cannot walk out of Russian gas" due to geographical and infrastructure limitations. Actions speak louder than mere words. MVM CEEnergy, a Hungarian wholesaler of natural gas, signed a 10-year contract with Shell on February 2nd. Shell will supply 200 million cubic meters (mcms) of gas per year starting in January 2026. This deal is clearly aimed at reducing the country's dependence on Russia.

Overall, Europe seems to be doing exactly what Burgum asks for.

EXTREME DEPENDENCE

The energy dependency of Europe is expected to be at its highest level ever in the near future.

By replacing Russian LNG with U.S. LNG, America's share in EU LNG imports would rise to about 70%. The share could be increased to more than 80% if the 16 bcm additional gas imported via the Turkstream pipe is also replaced. Calculations show that this would be equivalent to 23% of the total imports when you include pipeline imports from Norway and Azerbaijan, as well as North Africa.

By comparison, Russia supplied around 40% of Europe’s total gas imports by 2022.

Although relying on U.S. Energy carries a lower political risk, this extreme dependency exposes Europe nonetheless to potentially severe disruptions. For example, if hurricanes or heatwaves cause a sudden drop of exports to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Washington's chaotic policymaking since January has shown that there can be political risk among allies.

Burgum stated that the U.S. policy of energy dominance is aligned fully with Europe's desire to stop its dependence on Russia. This seems to be the case for now.

Who knows how long the energy and security objectives of these allies will be in harmony. The EU should hope that it will be a long time as its over-reliance on energy will leave little room for manoeuvre.

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(source: Reuters)