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Asian spot prices increase on geopolitical tensions but slow demand cap gains

The price of Asian LNG spot rose this week due to geopolitical developments surrounding Russian sanctions and tensions around the Middle East. However, muted demand in the region and high inventories capped the gains.

Average LNG price for delivery in October to Northeast Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) is now $11,50, up from $11,30/mmBtu in the previous week.

Estimated price for November delivery is $11.60/mmBtu.

Go Katayama of Kpler said that Asian LNG prices largely tracked the geopolitical premium in European gas prices, rather than Asian fundamentals. He added that the European Union's and United States' negotiations over new sanctions against Russia and Israel’s escalation in targeting Hamas leaders within Qatar have pushed up risk premiums. "Northeast Asian Demand remains muted. The November temperatures are mild and stocks are high in Japan and Korea. "Pacific LNG supply is robust," Katayama said.

He said that high inventories, low heating demand, and a steady Pacific supply would likely limit the upside potential.

Shiptracking data shows that a fourth LNG tanker from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 Project in Russia is berthed in Guangxi in southern China at the Beihai LNG Terminal. China has so far received three cargoes via the same import facility from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project.

S&P Global Commodity Insights, a subsidiary of S&P Global, assessed the daily North West Europe Gas Marker benchmark price for October cargoes on an ex-ships basis at $10.556/mmBtu. This was a $0.59/mmBtu reduction from the October futures prices at the Dutch TTF Hub.

Spark Commodities set the price at $10.545/mmBtu while Argus put it at $10.49/mmBtu.

"Northwest European Delivered Prices rose slightly this Week, tracking small increases in the TTF Prices," said Xiaoyi Deng Argus' deputy head of LNG Pricing. He added that traders held prices at current levels due to geopolitical risk.

The market is cautious due to small revisions, maintenance and maintenance additions at the Norwegian Upstream System. However, the changes are minimal and the flows from Norway into continental Europe remain low as a result of the ongoing maintenance.

According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan, the U.S. front-month arbitrage to Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope still only marginally encourages U.S. cargoes destined for Europe while the arbitrage via Panama is closed.

He said that the rates for LNG were unchanged at $29,000/day in the Atlantic on Friday while rates in Pacific fell to $31,500/day.

(source: Reuters)