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Bousso: Big Oil's long-term bullish outlook is despite the short-term doom.

Energy companies may be retrenching due to a poor outlook for oil and natural gas in the near future, but their investment plans indicate that they are confident the situation will change dramatically by the end decade.

The spending plans of energy companies are a good indicator of their confidence about the long-term prospects for this sector, as it can take years to develop a new oil or gas field. It also takes many years before any profits come from these investments.

In recent years, it has become increasingly difficult to accurately predict the future fortunes of the oil and gas industry.

The energy transition has raised concerns about the future demand for fossil energies. The renewed focus of governments on energy security following the war in Ukraine in 2022 has revived the investment appetite. Companies such as BP, Shell, and others have redirected their strategies from renewable energy to their core oil-and-gas businesses.

Even though prices are expected in the short term to drop, the current investment and expenditure plans of the top Western energy companies suggest that bullish arguments regarding the future of fossils fuels have gained ground.

SHORT-TERM CAUTIONS

The price forecasts for crude oil in the next two-year period are rather gloomy. Many agencies and investors expect a significant glut of oil due to increased production by OPEC and non OPEC countries. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brent prices will fall from $68 per barrel on average this year to $50 in 2026. A surge in liquefied gas capacity, mainly from the U.S., Qatar and other countries, in the next few years is expected to place pressure on a key growth market in the sector.

The oil and gas industry has responded to the bleak outlook by cutting jobs, costs and most importantly - buying back shares.

In recent years, the majors have increasingly used share repurchases as a way to attract investors. After the COVID-19 outbreak, the scale of share buybacks increased dramatically. This was mainly due to the rise in energy prices that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Calculations show that the top five western energy giants BP, Chevron Exxon Mobil Shell TotalEnergies repurchased a combined $61.5 billion in shares by 2024. This is more than they paid out as dividends of $51 billion. This trend is now stagnant. TotalEnergies announced last week that it would slow down the pace of its stock buyback program from $2 billion per quarterly this year to between $750 million and $1.5 billion each quarter in 2019.

Justifications for this move included "economic and geopolitical uncertainty" and the need to "retain room to maneuver".

Chevron and BP slowed down their buyback rates earlier this year.

Reduced share repurchases come with deep cost reductions. Chevron has announced a $3 billion budget-cutting initiative by 2026, which will result in it laying off up to 20% (or 9,000) of its employees. ConocoPhillips, a rival company in the United States, plans to reduce its workforce by up to 25%. BP announced plans earlier this year to cut more than 7,000 jobs. Last month, a cost review was added on top of a $4-5billion cost-cutting goal for 2023-2027. Exxon, Shell and other companies are cutting expenses aggressively.

The cuts are the most significant in recent times, even during the pandemic. This shows a greater focus on the competitiveness of the industry and an increasing pessimism about the outlook for the energy price near term.

LONG-TERM FINANCE

Big Oil is more optimistic about the future, as evidenced by their willingness to invest in mega projects and acquire huge companies. BP announced on Monday that it would proceed with a $5 billion offshore project in the Gulf of Mexico. The Tiber-Guadalupe Project, which is expected to start oil and gas production by 2030, will feature a floating platform that can produce 80,000 barrels per day. TotalEnergies announced on Monday that it acquired assets in the U.S. producing gas onshore. Exxon is the largest western major and has maintained its capital expenditure plans for 2025 at $27-29billion as it continues to grow output in the U.S. Shale Basins and Guyana. In August, it said that the company was prepared to make acquisitions and take advantage of lower prices for oil.

This confidence is backed up by forecasts that indicate the strong growth of oil production in the next decade will reverse itself.

The International Energy Agency predicts that world oil production will grow by 4.5 millions bpd from 2024 to 2028, to 107.6million bpd. It then stagnates in 2029 before declining by 400,000bpd by 2030.

The natural decline in oilfields, along with the slower growth rate, means that companies must invest significantly to maintain their production.

Oil demand growth will also slow down in the next few years, largely due to the rise of electric cars. Even if oil supply grows slower, a faster-than-anticipated slowdown in demand could impact oil prices.

For now, however, the willingness of companies to ignore a possible downturn indicates that they believe crude oil prices will continue to rise through the decade.

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(source: Reuters)