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China claims that the Trump visit is a 'preliminary deal'
China's 'commerce ministry' described the tariff, aircraft and agricultural deals as "preliminary". This was in response to Donald Trump's visit this week. Trump left Beijing Friday, after two days of talks between President Xi Jinping and Trump that were filled with pageantry and warm words but with limited details on tangible outcomes in trade and investment. The ministry announced on its website that the two parties had agreed to create an investment board and?a trade panel to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on specific products, as well as larger cuts on unspecified goods, including agricultural products. Beijing also said that both sides will work together to resolve issues of non-tariff tariff barriers and market access. "FINALISED?AS SOON as possible" The ministry stated that the U.S. will "actively promote" the resolution of China's longstanding concerns about?the automatic removal of aquatic products from China, the export of bonsai plants in growing media to America, and the recognition of Shandong Province as a region free of avian flu. The Chinese side also pledged to actively resolve U.S. concerns about the registration of beef plants and poultry meat exports from certain U.S. States to China. The ministry didn't identify any companies, or give details about volumes, values or timelines. China released its first public statement on Saturday, describing the results of trade talks held this week in Beijing & Seoul. This comes amid concerns about what Trump's 'first state visit' to China has achieved. Trump said that China had?agreed' to buy 200 Boeing planes, but analysts questioned this lack of timeline. The Commerce Ministry confirmed "arrangements" on "Chinese aircraft purchases from the United States" and U.S. assurances regarding the'supply of aircraft parts and engines to China", but did not elaborate. The statement said that discussions were ongoing and the agreement would "finalised as quickly as possible". Reporting by Eduardo Baptista. Mark Potter (Editing by Mark Potter).
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In Thailand, a freight train collision with a bus has resulted in at least eight deaths and 32 injuries
Rescue officials and the deputy transport minister reported that at least eight people died and 32 others were injured after a train struck a bus in Bangkok and ignited a fire. Officials said that firefighters and rescue crews responded to the incident as fires consumed the bus and vehicles nearby near the Airport Rail Link station in Makkasan. They added that the crash involved motorcycles and cars. According to preliminary reports, the bus was stopped "on the tracks" at a red signal, which prevented the crossing barriers from closing. Deputy Transport Minister,?Siripong, Angkasakulkiat, told reporters that the preliminary reports indicated the bus had been parked?on the track?, and therefore, prevented the crossing barriers from being closed. He added that the train, which was carrying containers, could not stop in time to prevent colliding with?the bus. Eight people died and 32 were injured. The wounded are being treated at various hospitals. "All eight of the dead were on that bus," he stated. Social media videos showed the train dragging several vehicles and the bus along the tracks. The bus was stuck in a red-light situation, and so couldn't move. Wanthong Kokpho said that cars were also "blocked" and could not move forward. The fire broke out immediately. The damage would have been worse if this was a normal workday. Officials said that rescue teams pulled injured victims out of the wreckage while fire crews battled with water hoses. They said that the fire had been brought under control and that crews were cooling down the area and venting gas while continuing to search for survivors. Authorities are investigating what caused the incident. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Thailand's roads are among the deadliest in the world due to a lack of enforcement of safety standards. Reporting by Orathai Shriring, Panarat Thepgumpanat, and Tananchai K. Keawsowattana. Editing by Louise Heavens & Joe Bavier
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One dead in Comoros as clashes erupt over rising fuel prices
By Abdou Moustoifa MORONI, 16 May - Five people were injured and one person killed in clashes between protesters on the comorian island of Anjouan and security forces, as unrest over fuel price increases spreads throughout the archipelago. The prosecutor stated in a Saturday statement that the Public Prosecutor's Office of Mutsamudu informed the public about a tragic incident which occurred in Anjouan in the Mpage region, and resulted in the death of a person, as well as five other injuries. After a meeting with the mayor of Mirontsy, and the 'fishermen association' which had been on strike since Wednesday in protest at rising fuel prices, there were clashes. In Mutsamudu (the capital of Anjouan), roads were blocked by stones. A judicial investigation was opened to determine what caused the death. The unrest is a result of a wider strike that began on Monday, after the government increased gasoline and diesel prices by 46% each. Citing the "Middle East" conflict as the reason for the increase. The strike by transport workers and shopkeepers has paralysed the public transportation system in Moroni. According to the National Human?Rights?Commission,?39 people were detained since the beginning of the strike. In an effort to reduce tensions, the government announced "cuts" to official travel and a reduction of 40% in customs fees. (Reporting and editing by Abdou Moostifa)
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The rising cost of diesel fuel from the Iran war is straining US school budgets
The rising cost of diesel since the onset of 'the Iran war' is draining budgets already stretched by U.S. schools districts. It makes it expensive to transport students and run generators. Schools from Yakima Washington to Waco Texas are using emergency funds reserves to keep buses running. Interviews reveal that officials in remote Alaska are scrambling to secure enough fuel to run the lights. Trevor Greene, Superintendent of Yakima said: "It is more than a straw on a camel's...back. It's like a big haystack." The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has had many knock-on effects, including the disruption of around one-fifth of world oil supplies. Fuel prices have risen at the fastest rate ever since the beginning of the war in late February. This spike has impacted economies all over the world. The spike has been so painful in the U.S. that it is a liability for Donald Trump in November's midterm elections, when the Republican Party is trying to hold onto a slim majority in the U.S. Congress. According to the American School Bus Council, U.S. bus operators consume more than 800 millions gallons of diesel per year. According to a new analysis by Samsara, a fleet management software provider, the cost to operate school buses in the United States has increased 67% since December. This is equivalent to an annual increase of $1.8 billion. James Rowan is the executive director of Association of School Business Officials International. He said that while districts can budget for higher costs in advance, the rapid swings in price make it difficult to do so accurately. "Even districts who have been able absorb costs through temporary measures or reserves this year may not have the same flexibility in the future." A survey of 188 U.S. School Districts, commissioned by AASA, and conducted in the week of May 4, revealed that close to a third are taking money from other funds to pay for their higher fuel costs. According to the survey results, school officials are looking for ways to cut costs. They consolidate bus routes, enforce anti-idling, change fuel buying practices, delay maintenance, and reduce administrative expenditure and staffing. "TREMENDOUSLY UNDERFUNDED" Yakima School district executives in Washington State said that the price of diesel they pay has recently increased by 64% on an annual basis to $6.30 per gallon. Greene said that at this price, the district's 60 buses would require an additional $213,000 in fuel costs per year. This is roughly equivalent to the salaries of two teachers. That is a big burden in an agriculture-dominated school district that has a poverty rate of 86%, and which is already "tremendously underfunded," he said. Jacob Kuper, district CFO, said that the district will instead buy its 30,000 gallon diesel tank in small quantities on days of low prices, rather than filling it. This is because it's "limping through the end" of the year. Christopher Mills of Thief River Falls Public Schools, in northwestern Minnesota said that diesel costs associated with transporting up to 800 students have increased around 30% since Iran's war began. Mills stated that the district was working to minimize direct impact on classrooms. "But if prices continue to rise, we may be forced to reduce support services for students." Even oil-rich Texas schools have not been spared. Waco Independent Schools District, which has over 80 buses, and average round-trip routes of 60 miles per day on average, reported an increase in diesel prices by 84% in early April. PRESSURE-PACKED Yupiit school district in Southwestern Alaska uses diesel generators to power the community and classrooms, not buses. Scott Ballard, Superintendent of the Yupiit District School Board in Akiachak, said during a phone interview that if they couldn't produce electricity then we wouldn't be able to run our school. The district, which has 550 students in it, is icebound most of the time, leaving a small window for fuel purchases. Ballard explained that leaders are now faced with a tough choice: Do they lock-in a price nearly 66% higher than the previous year, or do they gamble on prices falling? We're under a lot of pressure. Some of the biggest school districts in the United States are partially protected from fuel price fluctuations. Paul Quinn Mori is the president of the New York School Bus Contractors Association. He said that the district in New York City, which has the largest population in the country, outsources approximately 60%?of pupil transport. This arrangement often transfers fuel price changes from the district to the contractors. Los Angeles Unified, the second largest school district in the country, has been moving towards diesel-powered vehicles for many years. A district spokesperson revealed that 70% of its 1,300 bus fleet runs on batteries or alternative fuels. A spokesperson stated that "rising diesel prices continue impacting Los Angeles Unified’s transportation budget. However, the district has taken active steps to reduce dependence on fossil fuels by investing in clean transportation." (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Lisa Baertlein)
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In April, Iraq exported 10,000,000 barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Basim Mohammed, Iraq's new Oil Minister, told a?press?conference on Saturday that the country exported 10 million barrels?of?oil via the Strait?of Hormuz?in?April. This is down?from 93 million barrels per month before the Iran War. Oil prices have risen sharply since the Iran war closed the 'Strait of Hormuz. Iraqi crude oil exports via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline resumed in march, after Baghdad agreed to restart the flow. Mohammed said: "We currently export 200,000 barrels via Ceyhan, but we plan to increase that to 500,000 barrels". Iraq 'plans to engage OPEC in order to boost its production - and export capacity. 'The minister stated that Baghdad aims at a?production capacity of 5 million _barrels a day.
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New York's Long Island rail strikes halt the busiest commuter route in US
A union statement said that about 3,500 workers from the New York Long Island Rail Road (LIRR), who failed to reach an agreement on wages, went on strike Saturday. This halted the busiest commuter train system in the United States. The Long Island Rail Road is operated and owned by the state’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA). It serves nearly 300,000 passengers per day. In a press release, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union stated that a group of five unions had launched a strike. This was 'the first strike in 32 years. The union said that the workers went three years without receiving raises in the course of the bargaining. Mark Wallace, President of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers & Trainmen, said: "This strike wouldn't have happened if MTA and LIRR had offered our members the terms that the government repeatedly recommended." We hope LIRR takes action soon to prevent further?disruptions of hundreds of thousands New Yorkers. When they are ready, they know where to find us: on the street. After the unions requested that he intervene, President Donald Trump signed an executive order in January to appoint another emergency?board for mediation to avoid a stoppage of work at the Long Island Rail Road. Trump had initially named a board to end the labor dispute in September of last year. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue in Bengaluru, Mihika Sharma, Shubham Kalya)
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Berkshire purchases Delta and Alphabet, while shedding Amazon, UnitedHealth Visa, Mastercard, and Visa
Berkshire Hathaway announced a $2.65 billion investment into Delta Air Lines on Friday, as well as a small stake in Macy's. It also said that it had sold many of its smaller stock holdings such Amazon.com and UnitedHealth Group. These changes were made as part of the portfolio reshuffle that took place in the first quarter following the promotion of Greg Abel, who succeeded Warren Buffett at Berkshire. Berkshire announced in a regulatory filing that they also tripled their stake in Alphabet (parent company of Google), which is now one of the largest investments in common stocks. Berkshire has also increased its stake in New York Times to 9%. The filing included a list of?Omaha-based Berkshire’s U.S. listed stock holdings at March 31. This represented?most? of the $288 billion equity portfolio. Berkshire purchased $15.94 billion in stocks and sold $24.09 Billion of them between January and March. Abel is likely to have been the one who directed the majority of stock sales. According to previous disclosures, Abel inherited the equity portfolio of Berkshire, including that of Todd Combs. Combs was a Buffett protégé who joined JPMorgan Chase in December. Abel stated in February that he managed 94% of Berkshire stock holdings while Ted Weschler, the investment manager, handled 6%. Berkshire held an 11% stake in Delta Airlines, but sold it along with similar percentage stakes in American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines early in the pandemic, in April 2020. Buffett stated at the time that the aviation industry had undergone a "world-wide change". Delta is considered to be one of the best-run U.S. large airlines. After-hours, its shares rose by 3.2%, likely reflecting the 'approval stamp' that investors perceive from Berkshire. The Atlanta-based carrier did not immediately respond to a comment request. Macy's stock also gained a boost after-hours, with a 5.9% increase following Berkshire's announcement of a stake in 3 million shares worth $55 millions.
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Carney announces Alberta Carbon Pricing Deal that could pave the way for new oil pipeline
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta's premier on ?Friday signed a deal on industrial carbon pricing, ?part of a broader agreement meant to pave the way ?for ?construction of a 1-million-barrel-per-day crude oil pipeline to British Columbia's northwest coast to start by September 2027. Calgary's deal will raise the cost of carbon credits in Alberta's industrial market from C$95 to C$130 (94.59 USD) per metric ton in 2040. This is a measure to give oil companies a financial incentive for reducing pollution. It is unlikely that it will satisfy oil executives, who are concerned about the impact of any industrial carbon pricing on the industry, especially since the United States does not have a carbon price. Carney was in the city of oil and gas for the first time since November when he met with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to discuss a plan to increase investment, including funding a new pipeline. Carney said that Canada's carbon markets and incentives to boost?low-carbon oil output will attract the private sector. He said, "I believe there will be a great deal of interest." U.S. COMPETITION WORRIES Alberta frozen its headline industrial carbon prices in May 2025. It cited the need to "keep its companies competitive" in light of the threat that President Donald Trump's Tariffs pose. Alberta's carbon credits trade between?C$20 to C$40 per metric ton. Environmental?experts claim that this is too low a price to encourage polluters into investing in technology to reduce emissions. The plan announced on Friday includes an escalating carbon floor price to ensure that Canada's major emitters are continually encouraged to reduce their emissions. Alberta's carbon price will increase from C$100 to C$130 per ton in 2020, then by 1.5% each year beginning in 2036. Environmentalists had called for a faster timeframe. Tim Weis is the director of industrial decarbonization for Pembina Institute. The 'deal' ensures that Alberta will raise its carbon price in time, as other provinces must do. This is a condition Carney had set before he would allow his government to fast-track a new crude oil export pipeline. For the first time, the agreement provides a start date for a new crude export pipeline if governments meet their legal obligation to consult Indigenous People. Alberta plans to submit a proposal to build a second West Coast oil pipeline by July 1, according to the province. HURDS REMAIN Carney and Alberta agreed that a new pipeline would be contingent upon the oil industry building an carbon capture and storage project. However, under the agreement, the project could be phased-in over time, and the resultant?emission reductions would be less than what the companies who originally proposed the proposal pledged to achieve in 2022. The Oil Sands Alliance, which is made up of Canada's largest oil sands companies, has refused to pay for the carbon capture project. The group said on Friday that it did not support changes to Alberta's carbon tax system. British Columbia, as well as any First Nations that might be affected by this route, would have to approve of the pipeline. B.C. Premier David Eby has said that his government will not allow the oil tanker ban to be lifted off the northwest coast of B.C.
Bousso: Big Oil's long-term bullish outlook is despite the short-term doom.
Energy companies may be retrenching due to a poor outlook for oil and natural gas in the near future, but their investment plans indicate that they are confident the situation will change dramatically by the end decade.
The spending plans of energy companies are a good indicator of their confidence about the long-term prospects for this sector, as it can take years to develop a new oil or gas field. It also takes many years before any profits come from these investments.
In recent years, it has become increasingly difficult to accurately predict the future fortunes of the oil and gas industry.
The energy transition has raised concerns about the future demand for fossil energies. The renewed focus of governments on energy security following the war in Ukraine in 2022 has revived the investment appetite. Companies such as BP, Shell, and others have redirected their strategies from renewable energy to their core oil-and-gas businesses.
Even though prices are expected in the short term to drop, the current investment and expenditure plans of the top Western energy companies suggest that bullish arguments regarding the future of fossils fuels have gained ground.
SHORT-TERM CAUTIONS
The price forecasts for crude oil in the next two-year period are gloomy. Many agencies and investors expect a significant glut of oil due to increased production by OPEC and non OPEC countries. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brent prices will fall from $68 per barrel on average this year to $50 in 2026. A surge in liquefied gas capacity, mainly from the U.S., Qatar and other countries, in the next few years is expected to place pressure on another important growth market in the sector.
The oil and gas industry has responded to the bleak outlook by cutting jobs, costs and most importantly - buying back shares.
In recent years, the majors have increasingly used share repurchases as a way to attract investors. After the COVID-19 outbreak, the scale of share buybacks increased dramatically. This was mainly due to the rise in energy prices that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Calculations show that the top five western energy giants BP, Chevron Exxon Mobil Shell TotalEnergies repurchased a combined $61.5 billion in shares by 2024. This is more than they paid out in dividends of $51 billion. This trend is now stagnant. TotalEnergies announced last week that it would slow down the pace of its stock buyback program from $2 billion per quarterly this year to between $750 million and $1.5 billion each quarter in 2019.
Justifications for this move included "economic and geopolitical uncertainty" and the need to "retain room to maneuver".
Chevron and BP slowed down their buyback rate earlier this year.
Reduced share repurchases come with deep cost reductions. Chevron has announced a $3 billion budget-cutting initiative by 2026, which will result in it laying off up to 20% (or 9,000) of its employees. ConocoPhillips, a rival company in the United States, plans to reduce its workforce by up to 25%. BP announced plans earlier this year to cut more than 7,000 jobs. Last month, a cost review was added on top of a $4-5billion cost-cutting goal for 2023-2027. Exxon, Shell and other companies are cutting expenses aggressively.
The cuts are the most significant in recent times, even during the pandemic. This shows a greater focus on the competitiveness of the industry and an increasing pessimism about the outlook for the energy price near term.
LONG-TERM FORTUNE
Big Oil is more optimistic about the future, as evidenced by their willingness to invest in mega projects and acquire huge companies. BP announced on Monday that it would proceed with a $5 billion offshore project in the Gulf of Mexico. The Tiber-Guadalupe Project, which is expected to start oil and gas production by 2030, will feature a floating platform that can produce 80,000 barrels per day. TotalEnergies announced on Monday that it acquired assets in the U.S. producing gas onshore. Exxon is the largest western major and has maintained its capital expenditure plans for 2025 at $27-29billion as it continues to grow output in the U.S. Shale Basins and Guyana. In August, it said that the company was prepared to make acquisitions and take advantage of lower prices for oil.
This confidence is backed up by forecasts that indicate the strong growth of oil production in the next decade will reverse itself.
The International Energy Agency predicts that world oil production will grow by 4.5 millions bpd from 2024 to 2028, to 107.6million bpd. It then stagnates in 2029 before declining by 400,000bpd by 2030.
The natural decline in oilfields, along with the slower growth rate, means that companies must invest significantly to maintain their production.
Oil demand growth will also slow down in the next few years, partly due to the rise of electric cars. Even if oil supply grows slower, a faster-than-anticipated slowdown in demand could impact oil prices.
For now, however, the willingness of companies to ignore a possible downturn indicates that they believe crude oil prices will continue to rise through the end decade and into the next decade. This would allow them to recoup their large investments in new fields.
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(source: Reuters)