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Suncor CEO: Despite government's oil-friendly stance, Suncor is not ready to accelerate output growth.
Suncor Energy's CEO said on Wednesday that the company is not ready to increase production plans, despite the large-scale reforms promised by the Alberta and federal governments to boost growth in Canada's petroleum industry. These comments highlight the uncertainty surrounding whether the federal government’s more friendly stance towards the energy sector will translate to increased company investment and a higher output for Canada, the fourth largest oil producer in the world. Suncor's outlook is unchanged since its investor day in March, Rich Kruger, CEO of Suncor, said during a conference call. He added that there's still work to be done to convert last month's Memorandum of Understanding between the oil-sands industry, and government, into legislation. Kruger stated that it is still unclear how the agreement will affect his plans. Kruger and other oil sands CEOs signed a nonbinding agreement with Alberta and Canada in July to set out the conditions for the development of the 'Pathways' carbon capture and storage project. This would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from oil sands. Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, has endorsed Alberta’s vision for a new pipeline that would export 1 million barrels per day to the Pacific Coast. However his support depends on whether the Pathways project is implemented. Carney's government has been working to mend relations with the Canadian oil industry for a number of years. The industry had fought many of Justin Trudeau's environmental policies. Carney has reversed or diluted many of these policies and promised to accelerate the permitting process for major energy projects. Many of the?proposed policy changes are not yet drafted into legislation. Enbridge, the Canadian pipeline operator, announced last week that it would 'postpone' a planned expansion of Mainline by 250,000 bpd due to oil producers unwillingness to commit significant production increases. Kruger stated that while the tone of the 'Canadian Government is more positive than in the past decade, the company wants to take its time before making any commitments to accelerate their growth plans. Suncor announced in March that it expected to increase its upstream production from 840,000 to 870,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2028. Kruger stated that Suncor has the option of ramping up more quickly if so desired. He said, "We haven't changed to this mode at all. But we do have flexibility." (Reporting from Amanda Stephenson, Calgary; editing by Nia William)
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Iran Ministry: Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on the coordinates of the route through Hormuz
Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said that Iran and Oman had'reached an agreement on the geographic coordinates of a shipping route across the Strait of Hormuz. A joint announcement is being finalised if certain third parties do not interfere. Baghaei said that such an agreement between Iran and Oman, would not guarantee the security of this strategic waterway. A senior Iranian official and two regional officials told reporters on Wednesday that the proposed deal between Oman and Iran would give Tehran control of ships entering the 'Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. This is one of the biggest concessions made to Iran yet. Sources rebutted claims by U.S. president Donald Trump, that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. They said important details had to be agreed. Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, described the negotiations between Tehran and Muscat as being "professional" in nature and "moving ahead", saying that "the two sides had reached a mutual understanding on the geographic parameters of the route discussed". Baghaei said that, "if third parties don't obstruct this process, then the joint statement between these two countries, which contains the?"main considerations" and "key points of understanding", is in the final stages. Reporting by Elwely Elwelly, Menna ala El Din and Alison Williams. Editing by Ros and Alison Williams.
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Increased Black Sea attacks put pressure on global commodity flow
The Black Sea region is the latest strategic trade chokepoint that has been hit by an escalating conflict. The Black Sea is an important route for grain, crude oil and refined products. The waters of the Black Sea are shared between Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Georgia and Romania. In recent weeks, both Russia and Ukraine have intensified their attacks on the other's agricultural export vessels and facilities in the Black Sea region. Kyiv also increased its attacks on Russian oil tankers. The latest escalation creates another pressure point on commodity markets, already dealing with disruptions in major shipping routes across the Middle East. Kayoko Gotoh, a U.N. representative, told the Security Council last week that "the consequences... are already evident in global agricultural markets." "We cannot allow this dangerous spiral to continue." The U.S./Iran conflict has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and a maritime ban imposed by Houthis in Yemen who are aligned with Iran on Saudi Arabian ports & ships has increased risks for Red Sea shipping. GRAIN EXPORTS STRAINED According to the Infrastructure Ministry, Ukraine reported 35 attacks in July on vessels in port, 22 at sea, and 67 strikes?on port infrastructure. Ukraine is estimated to have targeted dozens tankers that are involved in the Russian oil trade. Already, the escalation has affected trade flows. FESCO, a Russian shipping company, said 'this week that it has suspended new orders for shipments via the Black Sea following a drone attack on one of its ships. Russia has intensified its strikes on civilian vessels and the port infrastructure in southern Odesa, Ukraine. Through this hub, more than 90% Ukraine's agricultural products are exported. Both Russia and Ukraine claim that they only target military targets. More than four years after the end of the war, agricultural products are still Ukraine's main source of export revenues. Kyiv seeks alternative export routes. However, Agriculture Minister Taras Voysotskyi said this week that they will not reach their full capacity until August. They would also only handle about half of the volume normally shipped via Black Sea ports. Trade sources reported that since July 10, shipping activity in the Sea of Azov which leads to the Black Sea has been restricted. This has affected activity at Taman, the main Russian grain port. The export of grain from Novorossiysk and Tuapse continues, but at a lower rate than before. Oil exports have also been affected. In July, Ukrainian tanker attacks damaged several vessels. This forced the temporary suspension of loading operations in Novorossiysk as well as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal (CPC), the main outlet for Kazakh crude. In a report published this week, shipbroker BRS stated that the CPC system was a vital?export route in Kazakhstan. It handles roughly 80% percent of the country's oil exports. Any disruption could have a negative impact on regional supply. Ambrey, a British maritime security company, advised clients that vessels continuing to call at Black Sea port should carry out comprehensive voyage threat assessment and that crews should remain within designated safe muster areas during drone attacks. Stephen Cotton, General Secretary of the International Transport Workers' Federation, a leading union of seafarers, said: "The killings of innocent civilian seafarers are?unacceptable. They cannot be considered 'collateral damages' in order to achieve military goals - this is an immoral precedent and a very dangerous one." BLACK SEA WAR INSURANCE JAMMERS Shipping costs are also increasing due to rising security risks. According to market estimates, the average daily Black Sea oil tanks costs have increased from $200,000 to more than $300,000. According to insurance sources, war insurance costs for port visits to terminals in the Black Sea have increased to 2% of ship value, up from 1% just two weeks ago. Insurance sources say that even small increases can add up to hundreds of thousands in extra costs for each voyage. Niels Rasmussen is the chief shipping analyst at shipping association BIMCO. He said that if the Black Sea volumes continued to be reduced as they have been over the last two weeks, the global dirty (crude) oil tanker volume could fall by 3%. (Reporting and editing by Ros Russell; Additional reporting by George Abbott of The Insurer & Bureaus, with additional reporting from Jonathan Saul)
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Gulf oil exports stable in July but still 40% below prewar level
Shipping data showed that the Gulf countries' crude and condensate oil exports remained largely stable in July, and were about 40% lower than pre-war levels. However, signs of a decline emerged in the second half as fighting intensified in the region. The relatively stable levels of exports have eased concerns over a more severe disruption in supply and offset the drawdown in global inventories. Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and Bab el-Mandeb, two of the most important Middle Eastern waterways, remained below the levels seen before the U.S./Israeli war against Iran started on February 28. Kpler reports that crude and condensate oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran increased by just 2% in July compared to June, averaging 10.7 million barrels a day. Kpler data and Vortexa showed that exports peaked between 12 and 13 millions bpd during the first half of this month, before dipping as the fighting between the United States and?Iran resumed. Iraq's exports doubled from June. Kuwait and Iran contributed to the increase, but Saudi Arabian and UAE shipments declined. George Morris, Vortexa analyst, said that nine additional very large crude carriers loaded in July boosted Iraqi Exports. However, flows through Hormuz are slowing as the fighting intensifies. In July, the International Maritime Organization received reports from at least 14 vessels in the region. This is up from 8 in June. Exports are up, allowing some producers to increase production. Kuwait increased crude production in July to 1.971 mbpd from 1.65 mbpd, according to a source familiar with the situation. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Tuesday that the world has lost over 2.6 billion barrels since the war began. Rebuilding inventories would take 18 months, at a rate 2.1 million bpd. RED SEA EXPORTS SLOPING Last month, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis stepped up their attacks near the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This caused Saudi crude exports - from the Red Sea port at Yanbu - to slow down. According to Energy Aspects, the Yanbu loadings dropped to 3 million BPD after July 20, from 3.8 millions BPD in April-June. Richard Bronze, co-founder of Energy Aspects, said that many tankers load?at Yanbu without their Automatic Identification Systems transponders on. Others are rerouting through the Suez Canal, and using the SUMED pipe connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean in order to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb. Reporting by Enes Tunagur and Ahmad Ghaddar, London. Editing by Tomasz Janovski)
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Increased Black Sea attacks put pressure on global commodity flow
The Black Sea region is becoming the latest strategic 'trade chokepoint' to be affected by an escalating conflict. The Black Sea is an important route for the shipment of?grains,?crude oils and refined products. The waters of the Black Sea are shared between Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Georgia and Romania. In recent weeks, both Russia and Ukraine have intensified their attacks on the other's agricultural export vessels and facilities in the Black Sea region. Kyiv also increased its attacks on Russian oil tankers. The latest escalation creates another pressure point on commodity markets, already dealing with disruptions in major shipping routes across the Middle East. Kayoko Gotoh, a U.N. representative, told the Security Council last week that "the?consequences... are already evident in global agricultural markets." "We cannot allow this dangerous spiral to continue." The U.S.-Iran war has disrupted oil flows through the 'Strait Of Hormuz, and a maritime ban imposed by Houthis in Yemen who are aligned with Iran on Saudi Arabian ports as well as ships has increased risks for Red Sea shipping. GRAIN EXPORTS STRAINED According to the Infrastructure Ministry, Ukraine reported 35 attacks in July on vessels in port, 22 on sea, and 67 strikes against port facilities. In 2025, the vessels were only attacked 14 times. Ukraine is believed to have targeted dozens oil tankers that are involved in the Russian oil trade. Already, the escalation has affected trade flows. The Russian shipping group FESCO announced this 'week that it has suspended new orders for shipments via the Black Sea following a drone attack on one of its ships. In the meantime, Russia has intensified its strikes against civilian vessels and the port infrastructure in the southern Ukrainian hub of Odesa. Through this port, more than 90% Ukraine's agricultural products are exported. Both Russia and Ukraine claim that they only target military targets. Even after four years of war, Ukraine's top export source is agricultural products. Kyiv seeks alternative export routes. However, Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Kval said this week that they will not reach their full capacity until August. They would also only handle about half of the volume normally shipped through Black Sea ports. Trade sources reported that since July 10, shipping activity in the Sea of Azov which leads to the Black Sea has been restricted. This has affected activity at Taman, the main Russian grain port. The export of grain from Novorossiysk continues, but at a slower rate than before. Oil exports have also been affected. In July, Ukrainian tanker attacks damaged several vessels. This forced the temporary suspension of loading operations in Novorossiysk and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal (CPC), the main outlet for Kazakh oil. In a recent report, shipbroker BRS stated that the CPC system was a vital export route for Kazakhstan. It handles roughly 80% percent of the country's oil exports. Any disruption could be a concern for regional supply flows. BLACK SEA WAR INSURANCE JAMMERS Shipping costs are also increasing due to the rise in security risks. According to estimates, the average daily Black Sea oil-tanker cost has risen to more than $300,000 per day, up from just under $200,000 per day a week earlier. According to insurance sources, war insurance costs for port visits to Black 'Sea terminals has risen from around 1% to 2% of the value of the vessel. Even small increases can add up to hundreds of thousands in extra costs per trip. Niels Rasmussen is the chief shipping analyst at shipping association BIMCO. He said that if the Black Sea volumes continued to be reduced as they have been over the last two weeks, the global dirty (crude) oil tanker volume could fall by 3%. (Reporting and editing by Ros Russell; Additional reporting by George Abbott of The Insurer & Bureaus, with additional reporting from Jonathan Saul)
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Tewolde Gebremariam is appointed as the new CEO of Air India
Air India appointed former Ethiopian Airlines Chief Tewolde Gebremariam to its 'CEO' post on Wednesday. The Indian airline is currently struggling with persistent losses, and increased regulatory scrutiny after a fatal crash last year. Gebremariam succeeds New Zealander Campbell Wilson. Wilson was a former Singapore Airlines executive who was appointed in 2022 as the new leader of Air 'India after it had suffered years of decline under state ownership. Air India reported that Wilson had informed Chairman N Chandrasekaran of his intention to step down in this year 2024. The 'Tata Group owned airline is suffering heavy losses, not only because of a heightened regulatory scrutiny following the '2025 crash but also as a result of operational disruptions caused by a conflict in the Middle East. These have increased costs and compounded effects from Pakistan banning airspace.
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Sources say that gasoline and diesel exports to Russia from Belarus reached a new record in July.
According to industry sources, and calculations, Belarusian gasoline and diesel supplies to Russia reached a monthly record in July. Fuel shortages were caused by unplanned outages at Russian oil refineries after months of relentless 'Ukrainian drone attacks. According to industry data and calculations, the Russian gasoline production had dropped early in July, to around 65% the average seasonal consumption. Diesel production had also fallen to the same level as domestic demand. The?Russian Government, in response to rising fuel prices at retail and wholesale, banned diesel exports. However, it allowed exemptions under previous contracts and intergovernmental agreements. Export restrictions for gasoline and jet fuel had already been implemented. Source data shows that gasoline shipments by rail from Belarus to Russia increased 13% from June to 212,000 tons. Diesel deliveries also doubled, reaching 162,000 tons. The total amount of jet fuel delivered from Belarus to Russia in July was 13,100 tonnes, compared with 16,100 tons in June. Belarus provides fuel to Russia from its two refineries that process Russian oil. They have a combined capacity of 24,000,000 tons per year or 480,000 barrels a day. In the first seven months of this year, the total amount of gasoline shipped by rail from Belarus into Russia increased 25-fold compared to the same period in 2025. Diesel deliveries also increased almost sevenfold, to 418 tons. According to industry sources, Russia has also begun importing gasolines from India, Kazakhstan, and Morocco.
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CPC oil loadings fail due to safety concerns and tanker shortages
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended operations several times this week due to safety concerns and a shortage of tankers. This is because the main export route for Kazakh crude has been hit by drone attacks. Since the middle of the last month, the loadings of the pipeline have been disrupted. The pipeline carries around 1.8% of the global oil supply, from Kazakhstan to Russia’s Black Sea Coast. This adds to the supply disruptions linked to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. Sources said that the pipeline was only temporarily reopened this week and closed on Wednesday. Shipowners are reluctant to embark on CPC voyages due to the possibility of drone attacks. On Tuesday, the Russian group FESCO halted operations in the area. A CPC Blend seller said it took multiple attempts to find a ship to load a cargo during recent weeks. The Russian Foreign Ministry accused Ukraine on Monday of attacking oil tankers at the terminal for the Caspian Pipeline consortium in Novorossiysk and claimed that Kyiv is trying to destabilise oil markets worldwide. Kyiv did not claim responsibility for the incident or make any comments on why they may have expanded their campaign against Russia by targeting a pipeline which carries crude oil mainly produced by U.S. majors and European oil companies. No one of the eight people we spoke to was able to be identified because they were not authorized to speak in public. The Energy Ministry of Kazakhstan said that it was not considering a total shutdown of CPC operations and that everything was under control. On Wednesday, the ministry still had not responded to a?request for comment. CPC declined to comment. Kazakhstan is a landlocked country that relies heavily on Russian ports for exporting crude oil by sea. This means that disruptions to the pipelines and loading can cause?production reductions. When attacks on tankers increased in July, Kazakhstan's oil production?fell 14% compared to June. Sources said that Tengizchevroil intends to export 100,000 metric tonnes of oil by rail in August to Georgia's Black Sea Port of?Batumi. CPC Blend?differentials are weaker due to disruptions. CPC blend cargoes for August loading were sold at a price nearly $4 per barrel lower than dated Brent last week. This is compared to the premium that was paid a few short weeks ago. Reporting by Robert Harvey, LONDON; and MOSCOW reporters; Editing by Barbara Lewis
Bousso: Big Oil's long-term bullish outlook is despite the short-term doom.
Energy companies may be retrenching due to a poor outlook for oil and natural gas in the near future, but their investment plans indicate that they are confident the situation will change dramatically by the end decade.
The spending plans of energy companies are a good indicator of their confidence about the long-term prospects for this sector, as it can take years to develop a new oil or gas field. It also takes many years before any profits come from these investments.
In recent years, it has become increasingly difficult to accurately predict the future fortunes of the oil and gas industry.
The energy transition has raised concerns about the future demand for fossil energies. The renewed focus of governments on energy security following the war in Ukraine in 2022 has revived the investment appetite. Companies such as BP, Shell, and others have redirected their strategies from renewable energy to their core oil-and-gas businesses.
Even though prices are expected in the short term to drop, the current investment and expenditure plans of the top Western energy companies suggest that bullish arguments regarding the future of fossils fuels have gained ground.
SHORT-TERM CAUTIONS
The price forecasts for crude oil in the next two-year period are gloomy. Many agencies and investors expect a significant glut of oil due to increased production by OPEC and non OPEC countries. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brent prices will fall from $68 per barrel on average this year to $50 in 2026. A surge in liquefied gas capacity, mainly from the U.S., Qatar and other countries, in the next few years is expected to place pressure on another important growth market in the sector.
The oil and gas industry has responded to the bleak outlook by cutting jobs, costs and most importantly - buying back shares.
In recent years, the majors have increasingly used share repurchases as a way to attract investors. After the COVID-19 outbreak, the scale of share buybacks increased dramatically. This was mainly due to the rise in energy prices that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Calculations show that the top five western energy giants BP, Chevron Exxon Mobil Shell TotalEnergies repurchased a combined $61.5 billion in shares by 2024. This is more than they paid out in dividends of $51 billion. This trend is now stagnant. TotalEnergies announced last week that it would slow down the pace of its stock buyback program from $2 billion per quarterly this year to between $750 million and $1.5 billion each quarter in 2019.
Justifications for this move included "economic and geopolitical uncertainty" and the need to "retain room to maneuver".
Chevron and BP slowed down their buyback rate earlier this year.
Reduced share repurchases come with deep cost reductions. Chevron has announced a $3 billion budget-cutting initiative by 2026, which will result in it laying off up to 20% (or 9,000) of its employees. ConocoPhillips, a rival company in the United States, plans to reduce its workforce by up to 25%. BP announced plans earlier this year to cut more than 7,000 jobs. Last month, a cost review was added on top of a $4-5billion cost-cutting goal for 2023-2027. Exxon, Shell and other companies are cutting expenses aggressively.
The cuts are the most significant in recent times, even during the pandemic. This shows a greater focus on the competitiveness of the industry and an increasing pessimism about the outlook for the energy price near term.
LONG-TERM FORTUNE
Big Oil is more optimistic about the future, as evidenced by their willingness to invest in mega projects and acquire huge companies. BP announced on Monday that it would proceed with a $5 billion offshore project in the Gulf of Mexico. The Tiber-Guadalupe Project, which is expected to start oil and gas production by 2030, will feature a floating platform that can produce 80,000 barrels per day. TotalEnergies announced on Monday that it acquired assets in the U.S. producing gas onshore. Exxon is the largest western major and has maintained its capital expenditure plans for 2025 at $27-29billion as it continues to grow output in the U.S. Shale Basins and Guyana. In August, it said that the company was prepared to make acquisitions and take advantage of lower prices for oil.
This confidence is backed up by forecasts that indicate the strong growth of oil production in the next decade will reverse itself.
The International Energy Agency predicts that world oil production will grow by 4.5 millions bpd from 2024 to 2028, to 107.6million bpd. It then stagnates in 2029 before declining by 400,000bpd by 2030.
The natural decline in oilfields, along with the slower growth rate, means that companies must invest significantly to maintain their production.
Oil demand growth will also slow down in the next few years, partly due to the rise of electric cars. Even if oil supply grows slower, a faster-than-anticipated slowdown in demand could impact oil prices.
For now, however, the willingness of companies to ignore a possible downturn indicates that they believe crude oil prices will continue to rise through the end decade and into the next decade. This would allow them to recoup their large investments in new fields.
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(source: Reuters)