Latest News

Chevron is confident about its energy future and oversupply: Bousso

One would not expect a CEO of a large oil company to brag that he is more confident than ever when warnings are rife about the imminent collapse of oil prices. Mike Wirth, CEO of Chevron, announced the updated strategy on Wednesday. He dismissed concerns about an oversupply of oil in the short term, and expressed confidence in the long-term prospects for the sector. This was a far cry from the doubts that surrounded the industry a few decades ago when the momentum began to build towards the shift away from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy. The strong support for fossil fuels by Donald Trump and his "energy-dominance" agenda has provided Chevron, like its Big Oil counterparts, with a significant tailwind.

Wirth said to investors, "Never before in my career have i seen a more confident outlook." "The best of the future is yet to arrive."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that oil prices will average $55 per barrel in 2019, down from $69 last year.

NEAR-TERM RETRENCEMENT

But what a company claims is only one part of the story. What the company does is more important.

The spending plans of oil and gas companies are a good indicator of their risk appetite, both near and long term. Many energy projects like offshore oilfields and liquefied gas (LNG), for example, require billions in funding and years to build.

Chevron has therefore reduced its capital spending by $1 billion compared to previous guidance, resulting in a range between $18 billion and $21 billion annually until 2030.

U.S. oil's second largest company is also retrenching, albeit modestly, in response to the uncertainty surrounding the balance between supply and demand on the global market. International Energy Agency currently predicts a massive oversupply of 4 million barrels a day next year, approximately 4% of the global supply. If accurate, this could cause oil prices crater.

Chevron’s slight retreat suggests that its thinking is more in line with OPEC analysts who are expecting supply to roughly equal demand next year or other who believe there will be a modest oversupply.

BOOM LONG-TERM

Chevron’s actions appear to be more in line with its messaging. The company is clearly betting that oil demand will continue to grow and it's a race against time to compensate for dwindling supplies.

Chevron has plans to increase oil and gas production between 2% and 3% annually until 2030. Currently, it produces approximately 4 million barrels equivalent to oil per day.

Wirth stated that the amount of investment needed to close the oil gap is equivalent to five Saudi Arabias over the next ten years.

Chevron has stated that it will keep the production of the Permian shale in America at 1 million bpd until 2040, while reducing its investment from $4.5 billion per annum to $5 billion.

Chevron claims that it can maintain production with improved drilling methods, without drilling new wells as fast as they are currently doing. This is a bold prediction given the standard practices of shale drilling or fracking. Chevron's not the only major shale oil producer that has said it can sustain and grow shale oil production profitably for many years. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and others have also indicated that they are confident of doing the same.

EXPLORATION BET

Chevron’s increasing investment in oil and natural gas exploration is perhaps the best way to demonstrate its long-term optimism. The high-risk and high-reward nature of this business demands heavy investment. It can take a decade or longer to go from the first drilling to production. Chevron has expanded its exploration activities in recent months to include Namibia, Egypt, and South America. In the coming years, Chevron plans to double its annual budget for exploration. Kevin McLachlan was hired by the company in October as its new exploration chief.

Do we have to expect a similar situation as at the beginning of this century when massive, unrestrained investments in new gas and oil resources led us to overspend and get poor returns? Most likely not. Big Oil companies have a laser-like focus on profitability. They've instituted cost-saving measures that will allow them to make money even if the oil price drops below $50. Chevron wants to reduce its structural costs between $3 and $4 billion dollars by 2026. This includes laying off 15% of the global workforce.

Chevron, and its peers, should be able to invest with more confidence in the future despite the peaks and valleys of the market. This, in turn indicates that the market will likely remain well-supplied for the foreseeable. All of this does not take into account the energy transition. The timing of Chevron’s strategy update coincides with the IEA’s new long-term outlook, which suggests that oil demand could continue to rise into 2050. Previously, it was thought that the demand would plateau by 2030.

It may sound good to Big Oil, but the reality could be harsh for Chevron and other companies in the oil industry if energy transition gains momentum again as many predict.

Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights and links trending stories in your mailbox every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.

(source: Reuters)