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Asia spot prices increase as cold weather forecasts boost demand

The price of Asia spot liquefied gas increased this week due to a forecast for colder weather, which boosted demand. Prices reached their highest level in six weeks.

The average LNG price in March for delivery to Northeast Asia The price of a million British thermal unit (mmBtu) was estimated at $10.10, up 6% on the $9.50/mmBtu in the previous week. This is its highest level since December 5.

Kesher Sumeet is a senior LNG analyst with Energy Aspects. He said that the weather forecast across Northeast Asia has become colder each week, tightening up market fundamentals, and driving a rise in spot LNG price.

He said that Asian spot tenders have increased this week. Japan's Kansai Electric and Tohoku Electric are each seeking to deliver one cargo for the months of February and March, ahead of an expected cold snap in Northeast Asia at the end this month.

He said that the weather forecast showed Northeast Asia's?heating degrees days (HDDs), which peaked at 26.8% over normal on January 23rd, were exceeding the 10-year-average from January 21.

This cold snap in early January could push the average HDDs for January in Northeast Asia above the benchmark of 10 years, as opposed to November and December when HDDs fell below average.

HDDs estimate the demand for heating homes and businesses based on how many degrees below 65 degrees Fahrenheit or 18 degrees Celsius a day’s average temperature is.

S&P Global Energy's daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in February, on an ex ship (DES) basis, was $10.73/mmBtu as of January 15. This is a $0.585/mmBtu reduction from the price at TTF, due to colder weather returning across Europe and a faster pace of storage withdrawals pushing prices higher over the past week.

Spark Commodities estimated it at $10.694/mmBtu while Argus calculated the price for March at $10.745/mmBtu.

Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG price analysis, said: "European delivered -prices rose sharply in the first week of this quarter due to forecasts of colder weather towards the end of the European month."

The market is focusing on the near-full depletion in underground stocks of some countries in northwest Europe due to?the colder climate, which has driven prices higher relative Asia."

Seb Kennedy, an independent gas analyst, noted that hedge funds increased their long positions in TTF futures as a result of rapid withdrawals from storage and plummeting temperatures. Meanwhile, commercial operators shifted 'into new short position" after suppliers and storage operators adjusted hedges to a tightening gas market.

Qasim Afghanistan, an analyst at Spark Commodities, stated that in LNG freight, Atlantic rates dropped for the?seventh consecutive week to $26,250/day while Pacific rates dropped to $41,250/day.

Afghan said that the U.S. front month arbitrage to Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope has closed further this week. This was driven by the recent fall in JKM-TTF, as the JKM does not match the recent TTF rally.

(source: Reuters)