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Officials alter Danube entry procedure to address Ukrainian shipping queue
Shippers announced on Wednesday that authorities will clear?vessels bound to Danube ports through the Sulina Canal, while they are still in Black Sea, instead of processing them inside the canal. This is a?effort?to eliminate a two week queue. After Russian attacks, Ukraine's Black Sea port, which handled 90% of its exports, was effectively blocked. Benefits: More vessels can enter Sulina Canal during the day. Vessels are no longer dependent on berths at Sulina. There is less waiting time and less unnecessary maneuvering," said Katerina Kononenko. Due to bureaucratic procedures and the high volume of traffic, there are dozens of vessels waiting in line for the Sulina Canal. The wait times have exceeded two weeks. Ukraine is the largest grain exporter in the world. This month, shippers reported that the long waits and congestion to enter the Danube or return to the Black Sea extended the grain delivery time from Ukraine to Egypt, a major buyer, from 12 days to over a month, which threatened profitability. Consultancy ASAP Agri stated this week that coaster freight rates on grain shipments to Egypt from Ukraine's Danube ports had stabilized at about $100 per ton. On September 11, shipping costs were $105 per ton, compared to $30 on July 11 when Ukraine's Black Sea port was still operational. Ukrainian authorities said that the Danube port could export at least 500,000 tons per month. Official data shows that Ukraine exported?930,000 tonnes of grain in September, compared to 1.78 million tonnes in September 2025.
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Ethiopian Airlines suspends flight to Tigray after taking over Mekelle Airport
Local sources claim that Ethiopian Airlines halted flights to the northern Tigray region of Ethiopia on Wednesday, after Tigrayan troops seized the airport at Mekelle's regional capital from the federal police. State-owned carrier announced on social media the suspension of flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum "due to current conditions in the Tigray Region," without providing any further information. Two local sources reported that Tigrayan fighters, who fought against the federal government during a civil war in 2020-2022 that resulted hundreds of thousands deaths, had seized control of the Mekelle Airport from federal police over night. Requests for comment from the Prime Minister?Abiy Ahmad, the federal government 'and the Tigray People's Liberation Front' (TPLF), a political party in Tigray that governs the country, were not immediately answered. The TPLF announced Sunday that it formed an alliance across?Ethiopia with six other armed group aiming to overthrow Abiy's Government. This move came after months of deteriorating relationships between the TPLF government and the federal government. Both sides signed a peace agreement in November 2022, to end the war. However, each side has accused the other of breaking the agreement. In May, the TPLF seized the control of the'region's government by the interim administration set up under the peace agreement. According to data from the Armed conflict?Location and Event Data project, the?Ethiopian army has conducted several drone attacks against Tigrayan troops in recent months. The federal government has not yet commented on the reported attacks, but last week the military announced that almost 300 Tigrayan combatants had surrendered.
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Denmark's central banks expects a 4% growth in GDP by 2026, driven by the pharmaceutical industry
The central bank of Denmark has raised its GDP forecasts for both this year and 2027 from 1.8% to 2.3%. Nationalbanken stated in a press release that "Growth was driven by an unprecedented increase in the pharmaceutical industries' output abroad during the first half of the year." Novo Nordisk has been an engine of the Danish economy since its peak in 2024. However, shares have dropped sharply ever since. The Danish government attributed the higher than expected growth in the Danish economy in August to the launch of Novo’s weight-loss Wegovy pills in the United States earlier this year. In a statement, Governor Christian Kettel Thomsen stated that the Danish economy has been able to withstand global turmoil so far. "We expect strong growth in GDP this year. But there are no signs that wage or price pressure will increase. This is because a significant part of the growth comes from overseas production, which only uses Danish labour and capital in a limited way. Denmark is home to global companies like Maersk Shipping, Carlsberg Brewery, Lego, and Vestas, among others.
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Wall Street Journal, September 23,
These are the most popular stories from?the Wall Street Journal. These stories have not been verified and?has no way of vouching for?their accuracy. - JPMorgan Chase has recently looked at a plan to help ease an old point of contention between credit-card partners like airlines and retailers. This plan would allow private?credits to obtain a new consumer debt. Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said that he asked President Trump for a 'winter package' of new military equipment and believes that the US will pursue an agreement to stop attacks on energy infrastructure. Qantas Airways will launch a service that is nonstop between Sydney and New York by 2028. This will reduce the journey time from more than three hours. The activist hedge fund Jana Partners is urging Six Flags Entertainment, a theme park operator, to consider a possible sale. Since August, traders?on the Kalshi prediction market have traded almost one million times in the same?market. This unusual activity has attracted the attention of both federal regulators as well as traders.
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New York Times Business News - September 23,
These are the top stories from the business pages of the New York Times. ? The?reports have not been?verified and the?reports are not guaranteed to be accurate. Anthropic has launched Claude Opus 5.5. It is a new AI that it claims to be its'safest ever.' This means it will be less likely to take actions which cannot undo or act outside of the limits given. As part of Project Sunrise, Qantas Airways plans to launch the first nonstop commercial flight from New York to Sydney by mid-2028. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has halted the state's permits for data centres until an audit can be performed to assess the impact of the projects on the water and power grid. The federal judge dismissed Michigan's antitrust lawsuit against four major oil firms, rejecting the claims that they?increased costs for residents by suppressing...the development of renewable energies and information regarding global warming risks.
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After the Iran conflict, crude oil imports to Asia hit a high in September but remain weak
Even with the increase, imports of crude oils in Asia were still 13% lower than pre-conflict. According to data compiled and analyzed by commodity analysts,?Kpler, the world's largest oil-consuming region, is on course to import 23,96 million barrels of crude oil per day in September. This represents an increase from August's 23.38 millions bpd, which was also the highest since February. Kpler has recorded a trend of increasing crude imports in Asia since April, when they were at their lowest level in over 10 years. The average oil imports for the three-month period ended in February was 27,55 million barrels per day. On February 28, the United States and Israel began an aerial bombardment and missile campaign against Iran, resulting in Tehran's threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway carried around 20% of the global crude and refined product prior to the beginning of the war. The strait is still contested, with Iran striking vessels from time to time and the US Navy trying to ensure the safe passage of tankers coming from Gulf exporters like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates?and Iraq. There has been some disagreement over the exact volume of oil that leaves the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia's Yanbu Port on the Red Sea. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed on several occasions that up to 15 million barrels per day (bpd) were leaving the Middle East. However, tanker tracking services reported lower levels. The crude oil imports from the Middle East are primarily destined for?Asia, with smaller amounts going to Africa, Europe, and North America. If Wright's claims are true, and 15 million barrels per day have left the Middle East, as he claimed in early August, this oil should have reached ports throughout Asia by the end of September. According to Kpler's data, Asia's Middle East imports were 12,56 million bpd during September. This is up from 11,66 million in August, and over 5 million bpd higher than the low post-conflict of 7,12 million in April. The September estimate, however, is still 3.53 million bpd less than the average of 16.09 million for the three months preceding the conflict. While there are some facts that support Wright's claim, it is important to note that Asia still receives significantly less crude oil from the Middle East than before US President Donald Trump launched his war against Iran. Wright claimed that 15 million barrels per day of oil were exported. However, even with this estimate, the exports are still 3 million barrels a day below pre-war levels. The situation, in other words, is worse now than before the beginning of the conflict, despite all the efforts of US Navy to keep the Strait of Hormuz opened and the risks taken by oil companies and shippers, traders and crews to cross the Strait. Saudi Arabia's East-West Oil Pipeline was closed recently after an alleged strike from Iraq. This will result in lower Middle East imports for October. However, they could recover by November once the pipeline is repaired and operating again. The crude oil?flows to Asia, which are still restricted, continue to be reflected in the flows of refined products. Like crude oil, Asia's imports for light and middle distillates also showed a slight recovery in September, but are still well below their pre-conflict level. Kpler data shows that a total of 5.84 millions bpd light and middle distillates is expected to arrive in Asian ports by September. This is up from 5.25million bpd last month, but it's still over 1 million below the 7.06million bpd produced in the three-month period leading up to conflict. Due to the weakness of refined fuel imports, diesel, jet fuel and gasoil prices remain near record highs compared with global crude benchmarks like Brent futures. On 'Wednesday', the front-month contract traded around $99 per barrel in Asia, while Singapore gasoil – a building block of diesel – was $173.84 per barrel, and gasoline was $139.60. Prior to the Iran War, the price premium of these fuels was typically between $10 and 20 per barrel. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Ninepoint ignores political rhetoric and launches ETF focused on the energy interdependence between US and Canada
Ninepoint Capital, a Canadian asset manager, is challenging the economic nationalism of both the United States and Canada as well as the trade war that has been escalating between them by launching an exchange-traded funds on Tuesday. The fund will highlight the interdependence in energy between the two countries. Ninepoint North American Energy Independence ETF, the Toronto-based firm's first ETF to be listed in America, is designed to provide cross-border exposure for an investment theme Ninepoint coCEO John Wilson stated pre-dated any individual politician and will outlast them. Wilson said it would be "naive" to believe that headlines will disappear in the next couple of years. He added that it would be shortsighted to ignore the degree to which energy industries are already intertwined in both countries, especially at a moment when AI is driving demand for more and reliable sources of electricity. This translates to a heightened demand for natural gas, uranium and strategic minerals such as nickel that are used in the battery industry. According to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), more than 90% Canadian crude oil exports are bound for US markets. Many US refineries are heavily dependent on Canadian heavy crude. CER reported that approximately 85% of Canadian energy production is exported. Canada is also working to diversify energy exports, both through a growing LNG sector that targets Asian customers and through the Trans Mountain pipeline which transports Canadian heavy oil from the west coast of British Columbia for export overseas. Wilson points out that this will not have a dramatic impact on the level of integration in the near future. Conflict with Iran has highlighted the need for "friendly" crude oil sources. The resultant near-total closure of Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes is a major factor. Data centers, which are required by AI hyperscalers, will require more electricity, most of it generated from natural gas. Wilson continued, "A lot of these technologies would not exist to invest in without the?supply of Canadian raw materials." The ETF's investment will be in 50 or more stocks in the US, Canada, and Mexico. The exact balance is determined by the opportunities. Wilson calculates that two-thirds (or about 67%) of the oil and natural gas producers it will invest in are based in the US. Canadian pipeline companies, mining enterprises, and companies producing uranium and copper, which are needed to electrify North America's economy, will also make up the majority of these?assets. Ninepoint offers several other Canadian ETFs that offer simple?equity-based portfolios as well as options-based products. Ninepoint's other funds, including private credit offerings, have been struggling with funding shortages in recent years. This forced Ninepoint to suspend redemptions. Wilson stated that Ninepoint has replaced cash distributions by additional units in order to provide liquidity and value to investors. To date, these funds have paid about $225,000,000 in redemptions.
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Sources say that Iraq has suspended Iranian flights from Baghdad due to US sanctions threats
Two sources said that Iraq had ordered its civil aviation authority to suspend Iranian flights to Baghdad Airport starting on Wednesday. This was after the United States threatened to sanction any airport which services Iranian carriers. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Monday that secondary sanctions against air?services companies would shut down all Iranian airlines on September 23, seven months after the start of the war between Iran and the United States. Two sources with knowledge of the situation said that the Iraqi government was considering diverting Iranian Airways flights from Baghdad airport to Najaf. Two sources familiar with the matter said they spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue. The suspension of flights will start at midnight on Wednesday. Iranian news agency Tasnim reported earlier, citing Iranian Civil Aviation Organization that flights between Tehran and Baghdad, Muscat, and other international destinations will be canceled beginning Wednesday. All?remaining flights, including Istanbul, will continue to operate as scheduled. A spokesperson for Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization said that Iranian travelers were not being admitted at the Oman airport. Consultations are ongoing regarding this matter. Bessent said to CNBC that if Iranian?airlines land in an airport "you can't provide them with fuel or landing services. You also can't sell them tickets. Or you will be kicked out of the Dollar system."
Bousso: Iran's fragile deal with oil offers relief, but there are still risks associated with the Hormuz pipeline.
Energy exporters and buyers will breathe a collective sigh of relief when the U.S. and Iran deal ends months of fighting. The fragile calm could not prevent future flare ups and cast doubt on how quickly or fully the tanker traffic in the crucial waterway will return to normal. Iran and the U.S. announced an agreement late Sunday night to lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. This is where?a fifth of the world's oil and LNG passed before the?war broke out on 28 February. After both sides sign the agreement on Friday, it is expected that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
This is good news for the energy markets that are in a crunch, but it leaves open the major disputes which sparked the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign on Iran, such as the future of Tehran’s nuclear program. This ambiguity leaves room for confusion, disagreements and new confrontations. In fact, tensions are already rising again. Iran's refusal to link any deal with Israel's campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah has threatened to derail talks. The Iranian-backed militia have exchanged fire repeatedly with Israel including at the weekend. The status of Hormuz is not clear. The deal gives Tehran a powerful tool, even though both the U.S.A. and Iran are committed to lifting the blockade. Iran's willingness to and ability to block the Strait for months has broken a decades-old Taboo. It raises the possibility that Iran could do it again, or just threaten to, whenever it wants to gain leverage over its Gulf neighbors or adversaries. This shift could have long-lasting consequences. Long after the flow of energy resumes, it is likely that shippers and buyers will be more cautious. Already, some significant adaptations have been made. Saudi Arabia has increased its shipments out of Yanbu, a Red Sea port, by a factor of three since March. The loadings have tripled to around 4.5 millions barrels per day. This is roughly 60% more than pre-war. United Arab Emirates have also increased exports out of Fujairah outside the Strait.
Even after the reopening of Hormuz, it is unlikely that Riyadh or Abu Dhabi will reverse their shifts in full.
The shipping behaviour may also change. Charterers and tanker owners will likely reduce their time in the Gulf to avoid being stuck if tensions erupt again. This caution will be reinforced by high insurance costs and concerns about security. These factors indicate that transit through Hormuz is unlikely to return to the pre-war level of 20 million barrels per day any time soon. In the months and years to come, a flow of 16 million bpd or more is more likely. This residual risk should help to support prices. Brent crude is now trading below $85 a barrel, down from $118 in March. However, a higher risk premium due to geopolitics and a more complex logistical system will likely prevent the price from fully reverting to its pre-war level of $60s.
The Flood of Relief
Reopening the Hormuz will lead to a multi-phased adjustment of global energy flows. First, the Gulf will be the source of this wave. The first wave of tankers will be those stranded in the Gulf during the blockade. They will start to leave almost immediately, supplying energy-starved countries and markets. Kpler estimates that around 60 million barrels worth of crude oil and refined products remain in floating storage inside the Gulf because they are unable to leave through Hormuz. Then, an influx will follow of vessels headed toward the Gulf in order to reduce the swollen Middle Eastern domestic inventories and resume export programs.
Normalisation of logistics will take some time. Supply chains may take up to 60-90 days to fully rebalance due to port congestion, sailing distances and scheduling bottlenecks. It takes about three weeks to sail from the Middle East into Asia. This means that the return of shipments won't bring immediate relief to the most vulnerable markets.
The impact of the conflict on global oil supplies will still be significant, even if it is not immediate. The regional producers can bring back 11 million bpd in oil production that was shut down during the conflict. They will also be able to reactivate refining capacity and LNG export capability. Some volumes may return in a few weeks, but the full recovery will take longer. It is difficult to restart fields, refineries, and export terminals following prolonged outages. Infrastructure damage caused by the war may take months, or even years, to repair.
A?RESILIENT MARKET BUT STRESSED MARKET
Reopening comes at a time when the balance between supply and demand is strained. The summer in the Northern Hemisphere is usually the time when global fuel consumption peaks, due to increased travel and air conditioning.
The return of Middle East oil will, therefore, initially only slow down the rapid decline in global inventories. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil stocks dropped at an average rate of 5.3 millions bpd from March to May.
Remember that the market has been surprisingly resilient during this conflict. The combination of commercial and strategically oriented?stock releases and the surge in U.S. imports, the weaker Chinese demand and the partial relaxation of sanctions against Russian and Iranian crude oil helped to cushion the shock. These measures did not eliminate the economic damage but they kept it manageable, effectively buying time for global economies.
This time was running out fast, as inventories were dangerously low. The U.S. and Iran agreement 'comes at the right time.
The agreement is not a good way to prevent a new confrontation between the U.S. and Iran because it does nothing but cover up the core issues at the core of the conflict.
The message for oil markets is clear: although the acute risks from the supply shock are over, the structural vulnerabilities revealed during the war will remain.
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(source: Reuters)