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Boeing to salvage Turkish Airlines delayed order, sources claim
Four people with knowledge of the matter claim that Boeing is nearing the completion of a delayed order to purchase 150 737 MAX aircraft after Turkish Airlines threatened to walk away from a high-profile contract over a dispute with engine manufacturer CFM. Three people have confirmed that the deal is now on track and could be signed as soon as next week. The agreement, which was part of a package containing 225 jets, had been delayed by a disagreement regarding the airline's demand for a industrial deal on maintenance of engine. Boeing and GE Aerospace's and France Safran's joint-ownership of CFM engine maker CFM declined to comment. Turkish Airlines has not responded to a comment request. Airlines are increasingly forced to negotiate long-term deals for engines at the same time they order new jets due to a recent shortage of supply chains and increasing spares prices. This adds complexity?to high-profile aircraft deals. If the order was confirmed publicly, it would prevent a potentially embarrassing reversal last year of the White House announcement. This is one of several Boeing deals that are associated with?U.S. Two sources, who asked not to be identified, said that the president was involved. Turkish media reported that Trump and Erdogan will'meet again next week to coincide with the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York. The White House did not immediately comment on whether or not the two leaders will meet. Industry sources claim that the core of the dispute revolves around who should be liable for the costs of long-term repair. Maintenance Plant 'PREMIER Turkish Airlines has a fleet of over 400 Boeing and Airbus aircraft, making it one of the largest airlines in the world. It was only a few weeks after the announcement of the larger Boeing deal that it suddenly?threatened' to switch from the 150 MAX planes in the order to Airbus citing a price dispute with CFM. Sources in the industry later revealed that the airline wanted to establish its own maintenance facility?for the engines that power the 737 MAX, by joining directly the top tier CFM partners. This would give accelerated access to the latest repair technologies. The two sides did not appear to have reached an agreement about the "Premier Maintenance Plant" immediately. Larry Culp, GE Aerospace's CEO, commented on the unusual spat that occurred last October. He compared the airline's threat of cancelling the deal with negotiating "new contracts in public" and said GE's price strategy reflected value to the customer. A senior Turkish Airlines executive said at an industry conference on Monday that the airline continues to consider more aircraft orders to support the rapid expansion?of its Istanbul hub. Okan Bas, Senior Vice-President Finance of the airline, told the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading meeting that the airline was studying regional jets - such as the Embraer E2 and Airbus A220 - while comparing them to the larger Boeing 777X or Airbus A350-1000. He refused to comment on the Boeing MAX order.
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Enbridge opens the season for a proposed Texas natgas pipeline
Enbridge, a Canadian energy company, announced?that on Tuesday it began a non-binding public season for its proposed West Texas Express gas pipeline. The pipeline would transport gas from the Waha region of the Permian Shale in the west to markets around El Paso. The Permian, located in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, is the largest oil-producing shale region in the United States. The Permian basin, located in West Texas, eastern New Mexico and Pennsylvania, is the second largest gas-producing shale region in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that as oil and gas are produced more, pressure within the reservoir decreases. Gas is easier to produce under lower pressures. This increases the ratio of gas to oil. According to EIA, the gas-to-oil (cf/b) ratio has increased steadily over the last five years. It now averages nearly 4,200 cubic foot of gas for every barrel of oil. This is a 16 percent increase from 3,600 cf/b around 2021. To process and transport more gas, pipelines and?energy infrastructure will be needed. Enbridge, who transports 20% of gas in the U.S. said that its proposed West Texas Express project is in response to the growing demand for reliable supplies by proposed 'power generation, utilities and generators, and industrial customers like data centers in West Texas, and markets in Mexico New Mexico and Arizona. West Texas Express will include 150 miles of pipeline with a capacity to transport up to 2 billion cubic feet per day. One billion cubic feet can supply gas to five million U.S. homes for one day. Enbridge stated that it is "targeting" a date of in-service in the fourth quarter 2029, subject to securing enough commercial support and obtaining necessary approvals. The open season, which is not binding, began on September 10 and ends on September 25.
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Saudi cancels oil shipments after pipeline damage, leading buyer seeks alternatives
Trade sources report that Saudi Arabia has cut off oil shipments from Europe to the Red Sea after drone attacks damaged its main export pipeline. This prompted top customers, such as Poland, to look for alternatives when cargo prices reached $120 per barrel. Saudi Arabia blamed the attacks on Iraqi militias, forcing the kingdom to shut down its East-West Desert Oil Pipeline on Friday. This has saved it from the worst of impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure over the past six months. On Tuesday, oil trading and shipping sources reported that Saudi Arabia informed European customers of the cancellation of some September-loading cargoes and that oil loadings in Yanbu at the Red Sea Port had been suspended. Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, declined to comment. Trading sources say that the cut in Saudi oil flows through the Red Sea is likely to prompt Saudi Arabia to try to export more oil via Strait of Hormuz, using dark shipments similar those used by United Arab Emirates and Iraq. These shipments allowed Gulf oil producers export 7 to 9 million barrels of crude oil per day, or 30 to 40 percent more than before the war. Brent oil futures are trading at $108 per barrel, and cargo prices on the physical market in Europe have risen even more. Brent is the key benchmark for dated oil. LSEG data indicated that the price of a barrel was around $122. Data from Vortexa shows that Saudi Arabia loaded 22 millions?barrels? of oil onto 12 vessels in the week between September 7 and 13, compared to the 6 to 7 vessels each week during the previous three weeks. It was not possible to determine immediately how many shipments bound for Europe or how long Yanbu loading would be suspended. TRADERS: ORLEN, POLAND'S PRESIDENT, RUSHES TO FINDS ALTERNATIVES Five industry sources reported that Orlen PKN.WA, a Polish integrated oil company, was rushing to locate crude oil cargoes in the North Sea or elsewhere to replace Saudi imports. Aramco was Orlen's biggest supplier in 2022, and supplies about 40% of its oil. This helped wean Orlen off Russian oil while making it dependent on the Saudi producer. Orlen declined comment on specific commercial transactions but said that it actively manages the supply portfolio in order to ensure the continuous operation of its'refining assets. Orlen's spokesperson said that "adjusting and optimizing purchase volumes" is an ongoing, standard part of their operations. This is driven by current production requirements?and changing markets conditions. Orlen bought several crude oil cargos in spot auctions between Friday and Monday. Two sources said that it purchased grades from the North Sea, including Grane and Johan Sverdrup. Two sources said that it?also bid for grades from further afield, including U.S. WTI Midland as well as Kazakh CPC blend. One trader reported that it issued a second tender on Tuesday for the purchase of North Sea or Algerian oil for October delivery as well as Guyanese for November delivery. However, results have been slow to emerge. Orlen's subsidiaries own and operate oil refineries throughout Poland, Lithuania,?and Czech Republic. Kpler data showed that the Baltic port of Gdansk in Poland has received approximately 160,000 bpd Saudi crude so far this year, while Lithuania's Butinge has received 63,000. The tenders had not been published and the results of the bids could not be confirmed directly with the counterparties. The company spokesperson confirmed that the feedstock deliveries to Orlen's refineries continue uninterrupted.
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US FAA: billions of dollars more required to modernize air traffic management
The Federal Aviation Administration's head said that the first phase of a plan to "modernize air traffic control" will cost "billions of dollar more than Congress approved." The Congress approved $12.5 billion in funding for air traffic control, which included $9 billion to modernize air traffic and $3.5 billion to build new facilities. Bedford told a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee that phase one would cost $16 billion. He said that the FAA was funding the 'gap' out of their facilities and equipment budget. Bedford, FAA's director of project management, urged lawmakers for approval. The FAA is asking for at least $10 billion more to complete phase two. Bedford said, "The agency is working to scale up in order to get it done and done correctly." In a report released by the Government Accountability Office on Tuesday, the FAA was found to have underestimated the costs associated with operating the new system and failed to set out a schedule for reform completion. GAO estimates that the FAA has more than 11,000 projects in phase 1, which it previously estimated to be worth $10.6 billion. Bedford stated last year that it was looking for $15 billion to $16 billion in phase one. This is what caused the shortfall. Congress approved funding for the upgrade of the "aging air traffic control" system and to increase the hiring of controllers. This comes after decades of complaints about airport congestion, flight delays, and "a series of technological issues". GAO reported that the?cost of telecommunications upgrades jumped from $4.75 billion dollars to $5.91billion dollars. Bedford said that outdated copper wires for telecoms should be replaced completely by September 2027. In December, the FAA awarded a $1.5billion contract to Peraton (owned by Veritas Capital) for overseeing modernization efforts.
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US Energy chief says Saudi Arabian oil pipeline could be back in days
Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy Secretary, told CNBC that crude oil would be flowing through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in a few days after it was temporarily closed by Iran-aligned group attacks. Wright told reporters on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in Houston that "it's still detailed, but it will be measured by days." He said Saudi Arabia is taking steps to get more oil out the Strait of Hormuz, with the help of the U.S. Military. Since the U.S. War on Iran, the 1,200-km (745-miles) East-West Pipeline that runs across the Arabian Peninsula has served as the primary route for Middle?Eastern Oil supplies to the world. The strait connecting Iran and Oman is now largely closed. The pipeline was moving between 4 and 5 million barrels a day, which is 4% to 5.0% of global oil supply. This spared Saudi Arabia from the disruption that has hit other Gulf oil and?gas?exporters. Washington has so far refused to support Saudi Arabia's requests for direct military action beyond intelligence assistance, according to three sources. Monday. U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he spoke with the Saudi crown Prince over the weekend. He also said that Iran-aligned Houthis who have launched drone and missile attacks against the kingdom from Yemen had contacted Washington to urge it to remain out of the conflict.
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Sources say that uranium prices in India have risen due to supply shortages.
Three sources reported that the Russian Urals crude premiums have risen to $8 per barrel against Brent for delivery in Indian ports. This is the highest level since May as a result of a 'lower crude supply' from Gulf producers because of 'the Iran War. The oil prices rose on Tuesday, after an attack on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure knocked out the East-West Pipeline. This sparked fears that repairs to damaged energy infrastructure and transport routes may take longer. Sources claim that cargoes from Russia's Urals are trading at an $8 premium per barrel delivered to India, compared to the $1 premium for Brent in August. The price of the Russian Far East ESPO blend oil grade, which is mainly bought by China, has also risen significantly due to high demand. This was fueled by a shortage of Middle Eastern and Iranian oil. This also supported Urals prices in India as these two countries are the main buyers of Russian oil. The 'lower loadings' at the Black Sea port Novorossiysk in this month are also supporting urals prices. The port, according to traders, is still shipping oil at a lower capacity because of 'high security risks' and the lack of tankers. Due to drone attacks in August, Novorossiysk's crude exports, and transit shipments, fell by more than half from July. They dropped to less than 350.000 barrels per day, from 800,000.
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UN considers moving Ukraine's aid underground after a warehouse attack
The U.N. humanitarian coordination in Ukraine announced 'on Tuesday that his organization is considering moving aid supplies underground, to avoid Russian strikes. These 'attacks have hit 10 of its warehousing facilities this year, destroying supplies worth millions of dollars. Matthias Schmale, U.N. Humanitarian coordinator in Ukraine, said that Matthias Schmale: In Geneva. After briefing the states on the needs in 'Ukraine five years after Russia's full scale invasion, he stated: "These deliberate attacks against warehousing capacity (...) are a new trend of the last couple of months." He said that they are considering moving aid into underground bunkers, and delaying the purchase of aid supplies to the last minute in order to minimize exposure to strikes. He said: "This is increasingly feeling like the frontline is moving up into the sky." "That also means additional costs to taxpayers who, at the end, 'pay for the goods brought in by the U.N. or other humanitarians," he said. He added that such costs weren't foreseen within the $2.3 billion aid budget of the UN for 2026. He said that the U.N. was investing in equipment for staff protection, including more armored vehicles and drone detection devices, and is also considering requests from Ukraine to build'mobile drone shelters' in the street, near bus shelters and other public places, in response to a rise in civilian casualties.
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Emirates airline is working to keep ticket prices down by hedging jet fuel.
A senior executive said on Tuesday that Emirates is well-prepared to deal with higher fuel prices and is trying to avoid passing on the rising costs to its customers. This is as airlines struggle to cope with the impact the Iran War has had on the fuel market. Adnan Kazim, the airline's chief commercial officer and deputy president, said in an interview that the company's position is "half protected and half open" to the market. He?added, "We are reducing the price as much as we can today due to the high costs of operation." Travel was disrupted earlier this year by the Iran war, which caused fuel prices to rise and flight delays, cancellations, and diversions throughout the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz shipping lane has been effectively closed, and the energy infrastructure has also been attacked. This region is the largest supplier of jet?fuel in the world. Brent crude?approached $100 a barrel on Sunday. Kazim stated that "we are trying to do as much manoeuvring as we can, and you can't raise the prices because we would displace traffic." Emirates stated in May that it was 'well hedged for fuel until 2028/29, and had'secured enough supplies to support the current operations and return to pre-disruption capability.
Six months after the war began, the US-Iran conflict has descended into a trench-war on energy: Bousso
Six months after the U.S. vs. Iran war began, it has hardened into a stalemate which could last until 2027. The conflict is raging, energy markets are held hostage and inflation is high. Neither side wants to or can back down. The war that has caused thousands of deaths and extensive damage in the Middle East has taken on a new face. The war began on February 28, as a joint U.S. and Israeli effort to cripple Iran, aiming at eliminating Tehran's nuclear programs, weakening its proxy network and possibly topple the Government. It has become a more narrow?struggle centered on one issue: who controls Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is used to transport?roughly? a?fifth of the global oil and natural gas supplies.
The dueling blockades by the U.S. and Iran have severely curtailed the traffic through the Strait in the last six months. This has disrupted energy markets and increased costs for global economies. Brent crude is still around $90 per barrel, about 25% higher than its pre-war price. This is due to the fact that crude prices are not as high as expected, largely because of ample global stocks, reduced Chinese imports, and increased production outside the Gulf.
The market buffers which cushioned the first energy shock have now been largely depleted - this is a concerning sign. The Trump administration may be prompted by this risk to either double down on the crisis or to retreat completely. The impasse remains a stalemate that is difficult to resolve. The deadlock is not being broken by either side.
No Way Out
Iran is unlikely to blink before anyone else. Its economy is suffering?enormously. U.S. efforts have reduced oil exports, Tehran's primary source of income, by about 85% compared to pre-war levels. In August, they were down to 250,000 barrels/day (bpd), fueling inflation and a worsening of the economic situation. The government has proved to be far more resilient than expected. The Iranian government did not collapse after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in an Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war. Instead, it adapted and strengthened its position. Iran is unable to dominate its neighbors militarily but has shown that it can inflict pain on them economically by controlling the Strait of Hormuz through periodic attacks and threats. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has shown little interest in escalating this conflict to the point that it could endanger U.S. soldiers or the global economic system. The conflict is becoming increasingly unpopular among U.S. citizens as the midterm elections in November approach. Energy-driven inflation has exacerbated cost of living concerns. Washington has one main objective: to restore energy flows through Hormuz while lowering fuel costs at home. How?
Beyond Hormuz The conflict has revealed the real bottleneck of the global energy system. The bottleneck is not crude oil supply, but refinery capacity. Around a fifth of Middle Eastern refinery capacity is offline due to war damage or export disruptions. Chinese refinery output is well below the level of a year ago, while Russian refinery production remains restricted by drone attacks from Ukraine. According to Energy Aspects, the combined impact of these disruptions in August reduced global refinery output by approximately 4 million bpd or 5% from a previous year. Fuel shortages are a result.
This distinction is important for Trump's administration, because the voters do not buy crude oil but gasoline.
The price of gasoline in the United States has risen by about 30% during the last year. Diesel prices are up more than 50%. Even if more crude oil begins to flow through Hormuz in the future, it will take much longer to rebuild refining capacities.
The options available to the administration for reducing domestic fuel prices are becoming fewer and fewer.
OPTICAL ILLUSION Recent White House actions highlight these limitations. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent announced new sanctions against Iran on Monday and threatened secondary actions against countries that continue to do business. He called the campaign an "economic D-Day." But sanctions will not deliver breakthroughs and secondary sanctions have little impact when Bessent makes it clear that Washington wants to avoid any actions that would seriously disrupt the global economy.
This reduces the chances that the U.S. would impose severe sanctions on China, Tehran’s largest oil client - one the few economic measures which could have an impact with Iran. Washington also wants to sway markets by saying that oil flow?through Hormuz is recovering quickly despite Iranian threats. Senior White House officials argued in the last week that Gulf exports were approaching pre-war levels, as more tankers left under U.S. Naval protection with their transponders 'off. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Friday that the average seven-day oil exports from Hormuz have risen above 8 million barrels per day.
Shipping analytics companies monitoring Hormuz via satellite imagery and vessel tracking data, however, see few signs of a recovery.
Kpler reports that oil exports have been averaging just 2.2m bpd in August. Total regional crude exports including shipments through Saudi and Emirati ports bypassing Hormuz averaged 9 million bpd during August, down from 11 millions bpd last month and 17 million bpd by 2025. Washington may be working behind the scenes to reach a deal, but the disparity between its public claims and data indicates desperation.
TRENCH WARFARE
Trump will find it harder to claim that the conflict is successful the longer it continues. The Islamic government is still in power. Hormuz continues to be constrained. Fuel prices are high and the economic costs are continuing to rise. The U.S. has?overwhelming military and economic power, but little appetite for an extended war. Iran is economically weak, but has shown a willingness for it to endure extraordinary pain in pursuit of strategic goals. It is therefore a conflict of endurance, not manoeuvre. Despite what Trump & Bessent argued in this week, U.S. Economic pressure resembles grinding trench warfare which kept World War One alive far more than decisive Allied attacks that ended World War Two.
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(source: Reuters)