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Six months after the war began, the US-Iran conflict has descended into a trench-war on energy: Bousso

Six months after the U.S. vs. Iran war began, it has hardened into a stalemate which could last until 2027. Energy markets are held hostage and inflation is high, but neither side wants to or can back down. The war that has caused thousands of deaths and extensive damage in the Middle East has taken on a new face. It started on February 28, as a joint U.S. and Israeli effort to cripple Iran, aiming at eliminating Tehran's nuclear programs, weakening its proxy network, and possibly topple the Government. It has evolved into a more narrowly focused struggle centered on a single question: Who controls the Strait of Hormuz? This narrow waterway is used to transport roughly a fifth of world oil and liquefied gas.

The dueling blockades by the U.S. and Iran have severely curtailed the traffic through the Strait in the last six months. This has disrupted energy markets and increased costs for global economies. Brent crude is still around $90 a barrel, about 25% higher than its pre-war price, largely due to the fact that crude prices did not rise as expected. This was mainly because of ample global stocks, reduced Chinese imports, and increased production outside the Gulf.

The market buffers which cushioned the first energy shock have now been largely depleted - this is a concerning sign. The Trump administration may be prompted by this risk to either double down on the crisis or to retreat completely. The impasse remains a stalemate that is difficult to resolve. The deadlock is not being broken by either side.

No Way Out

Iran is unlikely to blink before the rest of the world. The economy of Iran has been severely affected. U.S. efforts have reduced oil exports, Tehran's primary source of income, by 85% compared to pre-war levels. In August, they were down to 250.000 barrels per day. This has fueled inflation and exacerbated hardship. The government has proved to be far more resilient than expected. The Iranian government did not collapse after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war. Instead, it adapted and strengthened its position. Iran is unable to dominate its neighbors militarily but has shown that it can inflict pain on them economically by controlling the Strait of Hormuz. It does this through a series of attacks and threats made against oil tankers. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has shown little interest in escalating this conflict to the point that it could endanger U.S. soldiers or the global economic system. The conflict is becoming increasingly unpopular among U.S. citizens as the November midterm elections approach. Energy-driven inflation has exacerbated cost of living concerns. Washington has one main objective: to restore energy through Hormuz while lowering fuel costs at home. How?

Beyond Hormuz The conflict has revealed the real bottleneck of the global energy system. The bottleneck is not crude supplies but refinery capacity. A fifth of Middle Eastern refining capacity has been shut down due to war damage and export disruptions. Chinese refinery activity has fallen below the level of a year ago, while Russian refinery output is still constrained by drone attacks from Ukraine. According to Energy Aspects, the combined impact of these disruptions in August reduced global refinery output by approximately 4 million bpd or 5% from a year ago. Fuel shortages are a result.

This distinction is important for Trump's administration, because the voters do not buy crude oil but gasoline.

The price of gasoline in the United States has risen by about 30% during the last year. Diesel prices are up more than 50%. Even if more crude oil begins to flow through Hormuz in the future, it will take much longer to rebuild refining capacities.

The options available to the administration for reducing domestic fuel prices are becoming fewer and fewer.

OPTICAL ILLUSION Recent White House actions highlight these limitations. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent announced new sanctions against Iran on Monday and threatened secondary actions against countries that continue to do business. He called the campaign an "economic D-Day." But sanctions will not bring about any breakthroughs. And threats of secondary sanctions have little impact when Bessent made it clear that Washington wants to avoid taking actions that would seriously disrupt the global economy.

This reduces the chances that the U.S. would impose severe sanctions on China, Tehran’s largest oil client - one the few economic measures which could have an impact with Iran. Washington also wants to sway markets by saying that oil flow through Hormuz is recovering quickly despite Iranian threats. In the last week, senior White House representatives have claimed that Gulf exports were approaching pre-war levels, as more tankers left under U.S. Naval protection with their transponders off. Chris Wright, Energy Secretary, said that the average for oil leaving Hormuz over a seven-day period had exceeded 8 million barrels per day.

Shipping analytics companies monitoring Hormuz via satellite imagery and vessel tracking data, however, see few signs of a recovery.

Kpler reports that oil exports have been averaging just 2.2m bpd in August. Total regional crude exports including shipments through Saudi and Emirati ports that bypass Hormuz averaged around 9 million bpd during August, down from 11 millions bpd last month and approximately 17 million bpd by 2025. Washington may be trying to reach a deal in secret, but the disparity between its public claims and data indicates desperation.

TRENCH WARFARE

Trump will find it harder to claim that the conflict is successful the longer it continues. The Islamic government is still in power. Hormuz is still constrained. Fuel prices are high and the economic costs continue. The U.S. has a vast?economic power and military might, but it is not interested in a larger war. Iran, despite being economically weakened, has shown a willingness and ability to endure extraordinary pain in pursuit of strategic goals. It is therefore a conflict of endurance, not manoeuvre. Despite what Trump & Bessent argued in this week, U.S. Economic pressure resembles grinding trench warfare which kept World War One alive far more than decisive Allied attacks that ended World War Two.

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(source: Reuters)