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What challenges lie ahead for Nigeria's Dangote Oil Refinery?

Nigeria's state oil company NNPC Ltd. announced last weekend that it would not be the exclusive purchaser. of fuel produced by the $20 billion Dangote Oil Refinery,. contradicting a declaration made by the refinery recently.

This shift in strategies might complicate the 650,000 barrels per. day (bpd) capability refinery's method to supply gas in. Nigeria.

Here are other obstacles the refinery faces.

UNREFINED SUPPLY

Nigeria's unrefined output has decreased from a peak of 2 million. bpd a decade ago to around 1.3 million bpd due to oil theft,. sabotage, and withdrawal of oil majors from onshore fields to. concentrate on offshore exploration.

The NNPC, strained by financial obligation, has sold some of its future. crude output to cover operational expenses. So, it is having a hard time to. supply sufficient crude to Dangote and smaller refineries.

That has actually required Dangote to source crude from the United. States and Brazil to keep the refinery going.

OFF-TAKER DYNAMICS

The NNPC's decision not to be sole purchaser of Dangote gasoline. implies the refinery, which favours bulk purchases, might now deal with a. fragmented market dominated by regional traders. This might lead to. logistical headaches and pricing disagreements.

Dangote wanted to sell to anybody on condition they buy. a minimum of one million litres, the refinery head Edwin. Devakumar informed Reuters in July.

The regional fuel traders run countless gasoline station. across Nigeria and could bypass Dangote refinery if they find. its terms unappealing. Because case, Dangote has stated it would. export its products.

FUEL RATES

The price of gasoline is a hot-button issue in Nigeria.

That indicates Dangote has to price its fuel competitively. in a domestic market besieged by an expense of living crisis while. still keeping acceptable revenue margins.

The NNPC recently raised fuel rates at its outlets by at. least 39% but labour unions and activists have actually opposed it.

REGULATORY THREATS

The Dangote refinery has actually accused the downstream regulator of. issuing licences for the importation of substandard fuels, while. criticising the upstream regulator for not imposing laws that. required oil manufacturers to supply crude to domestic refineries.

Nigeria's regulative environment is unforeseeable, and. regulators tend to favour enforcement actions over. business-friendly policies when conflicts emerge, industry. authorities say.

Although the Dangote refinery lies in an open market. zone, which facilitates exports, the Nigerian federal government. controls export guidelines.

(source: Reuters)