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Maguire: The EV export boom in China is beginning to affect the gasoline market.
Years ago, predictions of the energy shift followed a familiar plot: Electric vehicles would gradually reduce gasoline demand in Europe before spreading elsewhere. Recent trade data suggests that the process is already accelerating in a much wider swath across the global economy. Comparing the year-to date gasoline imports with Chinese EV exports shows a striking overlap across several major economies. Australia, Brazil and South Korea have all increased their imports of Chinese EVs in the past year, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Canada, United States, Nigeria, and Japan reduced their gasoline imports. No single ?dataset proves causation. Imports of gasoline are affected by refinery operations and inventories as well as economic growth, government policy, and government policies. When a'same' pattern appears in multiple regions, and at different income levels, this is less a coincidence and more an early sign of structural change. WHAT ARE THE FIRST SIGNS OF DISplacement? It is possible that the global trade in gasoline is starting to reflect China's surge in EV exports. Years ago, EV adoption was treated as a separate story. They seem to be more and more connected. In 2026, the countries listed here collectively reduced gasoline imports by about a third compared to last year's same-month figures. They also increased imports of Chinese electric vehicles to record levels. Fuel traders will need to watch Chinese vehicle exports just as closely as refinery failures if this relationship continues. AUSTRALIA LEADS IN THE WAY Australia is perhaps the most obvious example. Imports of Chinese EVs grew by 200%, or $2.5 billion. Chinese brands have gained rapid market share because they offer vehicles at prices that Western competitors cannot match. The economics of electrification is increasingly favorable for consumers who face high living costs and unpredictable fuel prices. ASIA PRESSURE BUILDINGS South Korea and Japan are both automotive powerhouses. South Korea reduced its gasoline imports to around 0.4 million tonnes or 44%, while increasing Chinese EV imports to more than $1 billion. Japan has cut its gasoline imports to 0.3 million metric tons or 11% while registering a 90% increase in the purchase of Chinese electric vehicles. Chinese automakers may have a stronger global competitive position than they realize if they can establish themselves in two of the most advanced automotive markets. EVEN OIL PRODUCERS ARE JOINING THE PARTICIPATION The United Arab Emirates is perhaps the most important case symbolically. China's electric vehicle imports reached new heights, with a total of $1.4 billion, as it posted multi-year lows in gasoline imports. The conflict in the Middle East has hampered oil and product flow around the region this year, including to the UAE. The steep rise in EV sales is still important because traditionally, oil-producing countries have been viewed by many as laggards when it comes to vehicle electrification. EVs are becoming more popular due to falling prices and improved technology. If EVs are able to gain ground in an economic system based on hydrocarbons, then they can do so almost anywhere. NORTH AMERICA'S QUIET SHIFT Canada and the United States are also part of the same pattern. Canada has increased its purchases of electric vehicles from China while reducing gasoline imports. The United States cut its gasoline imports in half compared to 2025's first half and imported more than $1 billion worth of electric vehicles from China despite trade barriers. In both markets, refining dynamics play a significant role. Every electric vehicle sold replaces an upcoming gasoline vehicle, reducing fuel consumption growth that refiners used to take for granted. THE EMERGING MARKET TEST Pakistan is the largest market in the world. The conventional wisdom held that electric vehicle adoption would be concentrated in wealthy countries because they were too expensive for developing economies. Chinese manufacturers challenge this assumption. Pakistan has decreased total gasoline imports this year, while Chinese EV imports have increased by an astounding 549% on a scale of nearly $500 million. Nigeria followed a similar trend, as the Dangote refinery's increased gasoline production helped to reduce gasoline imports more than half compared to a year earlier, while EV imports more than doubled, reaching close to $72million. Nigeria has also partnered with South Korea’s development arm in order to build a EV manufacturing facility that will manufacture both cars and charging equipment?in Nigeria. If low-cost EVs gain traction in emerging markets that are fuel-sensitive, future expectations of gasoline demand growth could need to be revised. Why this Matters These countries are not only important because of their numbers, but also for their diversity. Together, they cover North America, East Asia and South Asia. They also include the Middle East, Africa, Oceania, Africa, and Oceania. They include oil exporters, oil importers, wealthy economies, middle-income countries and emerging markets. Histoically, EV adoption was dismissed as a largely European phenomena supported by subsidies and regulations. This argument is getting harder to "sustain". Consumers seem to be responding more to a simple economic calculus: gasoline is still expensive and volatile while Chinese EVs become cheaper and more readily available. The Takeaway The demand for gasoline is not going to fall. Internal combustion engines will continue to dominate the global road for many years. Major shifts are rarely the result of dramatic headlines. They begin with subtle shifts in behavior, which are first evident in trade data and market flows. One of the early signs may be the overlap between declining gasoline imports and increasing Chinese EV sales across many different economies. Fuel efficiency and slower economic growth may not be the greatest threat to long-term gasoline demand. There may be an increasing number of Chinese electric vehicles that are affordable. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; reporting by Gavin Maguire)
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New York Times Business News - August 4, 2018
These are the most popular?stories from the New York Times business pages. These stories have not been?verified?and we cannot vouch for the accuracy of these stories. Boeing has been cleared by US regulators to begin delivering its Boeing 737 Max 7 jet, the smallest version in the best-selling 737 'Max family, after it made changes to the flight-control software, the pilot alert system and an engine system which prevents ice from accumulating. After being confirmed by Senate last week, Jay Clayton was sworn-in as U.S. Director of National Intelligence. Kay Granger died at her Fort Worth home due to Alzheimer's. She was a Republican from Texas and a member of the House of Representatives. She went on to become chair of?the powerful House Appropriations Committee. (Compiled by Bengaluru newsroom) (Compiled Bengaluru Newsroom)
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Lufthansa announces 2026 profit forecast following Q2 fuel cost impact on EBIT
German airline 'Lufthansa' on Tuesday announced a range of 'its adjusted operating profit (EBIT) for 2026, after the figure was more than halved due to increased fuel costs in the second quarter. The company now expects an EBIT adjusted of EUR1.7 to EUR2.2 billion (1.96-$2.53 Billion) due to a 'heightened level of uncertainty caused by high volatility in kerosene prices. Carsten Spohr, Chief Executive Officer of the company, said in a statement: "We reflect today on a challenging second quarter which was marked once again by multiple geopolitical crisis and uncertainty." "Despite the significant increase in fuel prices, we could not offset it fully despite our improvement in load factor and yield." Lufthansa predicted that the amount would be significantly higher than the previous year's level of EUR 1,96 billion. The adjusted EBIT dropped to EUR383 millions in the second quarter from EUR870millions a year ago. This was "slightly lower" than the EUR401 million analysts had projected in a company-compiled survey. Fuel costs are now expected to be EUR8.66 Billion. The company reported that capacity planning for the year remained unchanged.
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BHP faces a weekend strike as wage negotiations drag on.
A union spokesperson revealed on Tuesday that the BHP 'Port Hedland' operations in Western Australia had 'not reached a wage agreement' with BHP. This set the stage for the two-day strike to be held at the world's largest iron ore export hub this weekend. In a'statement, a spokesperson from Combined Ports Unions stated that the'meeting was productive and, while substantive issues remain to be resolved, all parties have agreed on a 'path forward, which we will follow in the coming weeks. The union has confirmed that industrial action will continue on August 8 and 9 as indicated previously. BHP operations are not expected to be affected by the action. BHP announced in a statement that it will update its proposal at the next meeting, which is scheduled for August 18. The statement said: "With another scheduled meeting and a new proposal coming, we've?made significant advances with the?Commission's help and there's no need for unions to continue their planned industrial action. Reporting by Sneha Mukherjee and Rajasik Mukherjee from Bengaluru and Melanie Burton from Melbourne. Editing by Tom Hogue.
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Qantas, Australia's airline, will buy back shares worth $52 million from Jetstar Japan.
Qantas Airways announced on Tuesday that Jetstar Japan would purchase its 33.32% share in the budget airline?in a deal worth 8.2 'billion yen (US $52.11 million). This will allow it to become a Japanese company and be rebranded under a different name. In the agreement signed by Qantas and Japan Airlines, Jetstar Japan will purchase the minority share of Qantas while the Development Bank of Japan becomes a new shareholder. Japan Airlines and Tokyo Century will keep their respective stakes. Jetstar Japan, after Qantas divestment from the airline market in Japan, will rebrand and?drop its "Jetstar' brand to strengthen their?position. Qantas says the move will allow it to redirect its capital towards Qantas' and Jetstar’s operations in Australia as well as across its international network. Qantas expects to gain an estimated A$115.49million (80.49million) in items other than underlying earnings from the share buyback, primarily in 2027. Qantas has said that it will 'continue to recognize its share of Jetstar Japan’s profits or losses' until the transaction is complete, which should be by June 2027. Jetstar Japan is a joint venture between Qantas Airlines, Japan Airlines and Mitsubishi Corp. The airline began to operate as a low cost carrier at the end of 2012?from Narita Airport, near Tokyo. The?announcement on Tuesday follows a non binding?memorandum between the parties that was revealed in February 2026.
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Williams buys Momentum for $5.5 Billion, but misses quarter estimates
Williams Pipeline Company announced on Monday that it will buy Momentum Midstream. The company is betting on the growing demand for LNG export facilities and power generation along with industrial users in the U.S. Gulf Coast. The deal, which includes approximately $3.5 billion cash, assumed debt, and about $2 billion of?Williams shares, will increase Williams' presence in the Haynesville Shale Basin, a major supplier of natural gas to Gulf Coast LNG Terminals. U.S. Pipeline companies benefit from the booming oil and natural gas production in?the Permian basin and from rising natural gas demand due to record LNG exports. They also use more electricity for AI operations, cryptocurrency mining, and data centers. Williams stated that the deal would add over 4,000 miles (over 1 million acres) of pipelines and gather, process and transport assets, with a combined daily capacity of approximately 6 billion cubic feet. Williams announced the $1.5 billion Delta Access pipeline project, a 2,25 bcfd project scheduled for early 2029. The 750 mmcfd Shelby Trough connector is also expected to be operational in mid-2028. In extended trading, shares of the Tulsa-based Oklahoma company rose by?about 2 percent? Total costs and expenditures rose to $1.87billion for the quarter ending June 30th from $1.84billion a year ago. Interest expenses for the quarter ended June 30 increased by about 6%, to $371m from $350m a year ago. Interest rates that are higher for longer increases the borrowing costs of power companies. These companies need to borrow more money for their expenses, such as upgrading and maintaining the electric grid. According to LSEG data, the?company's adjusted profit for the second quarter of $0.50 per share fell short of analysts' average estimates, which were $0.51. This was due to higher interest and operation expenses. Reporting by Khusbu Jennifer in Bengaluru, editing by Shreya Biwas
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Williams to purchase Momentum Midstream at $5.5 billion
Williams announced on Monday that it would buy Momentum Midstream, for $5.5 billion. It also said that its profit outlook for the full year was to be raised. The company will expand its natural gas network within the Haynesville Shale in order to meet growing Gulf Coast demand for liquefied gas and electricity. The deal, according to the pipeline operator, is valued up to $5.5 Billion. This includes $3.5 Billion in cash and debt as well as approximately $2 Billion in Williams equity. Williams now has more than 4,000 miles of pipe in the Haynesville area, and 1 million acres dedicated to it. The Haynesville region can gather 6 billion cubic feet of gas per day. Three take-or pay pipelines are able move 4,05 billion cfd. The company stated that the assets would?strengthen its position in an important supply basin for Gulf Coast LNG export plants, power generating stations and industrial users. The company has 'lifted their 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $8.3 to $8.5 billion, up from the previous midpoint of $8.2 billion. The company reported second-quarter EBITDA of $1.921 bn, up from $1.808 bn a year ago. The net income for the quarter rose to $827 million or $0.68 per share from $546 millions or $0.45 a year earlier. Reporting by Khusbu?Jena in Bengaluru, editing by Shreya Biwas
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Venezuelan oil exports dropped slightly in July but cargoes to the US increased
Venezuela's oil exports dropped to 1.16m barrels per day from 1.2m bpd in July as the country drained less inventories. However, exports to the U.S. rose to 786,000 bpd - the highest level since early 2019. Shipping data revealed on Monday. Exports of the OPEC nation have rebounded rapidly from lows never seen before, due to?U.S. The Trump administration imposed sanctions and a navy blockade to remove President Nicolas Maduro. Washington signed a key oil supply agreement with interim president Delcy Rodriquez in January. This allowed Venezuelan oil to be returned mainly through trading houses, but also directly via the U.S. and Europe. The export volume in July was a'second consecutive month' of decline, after reaching a high of 1,24 million bpd during May. This was due to fewer exports of fuel and crude oil from both onshore and float storage. The data showed that shipments to the U.S. increased from 284,000 bpd per day in January. Venezuelan oil exports fell from 277,000 to 178,000 barrels per day (bpd), while the cargoes bound for Europe dropped to 82,200 from 99,000 in the previous month. The exports of the main U.S. Chevron joint?venture partner for PDVSA, U.S. Chevron remained virtually unchanged at around 293,000 bpd. Meanwhile, trading?firms such as Vitol?Trafigura, and Novum Energy shipped about 604,000 bpd during July, down from 775,000 bpd recorded in June. The data and documents show that PDVSA resumed direct 'crude' deliveries last month to partner Repsol in order to settle a pending debt. It also plans to deliver a cargo of the same nature to Maurel & Prom later this month. According to data, Venezuela exported 324,000 metric tons of oil products and petrochemicals in July, up from 224,000 tons in June. It also imported 81,000 bpds of heavy naphtha, to dilute the heavy crude grades.
Huge oil companies defeat US consumer claim over production, prices
Numerous oil companies consisting of Exxon Mobil and Chevron beat an appeal on Monday by customers who implicated them of conspiring with previous U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut oil production, increasing rates at the pump.
In a 3-0 choice, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco stated 2 dozen consumers could not pursue class action claims due to the fact that they concerned political questions and the oil-producing policies of foreign countries.
The court also found an absence of proof that the oil companies violated antitrust law by conspiring to raise rates.
Other offenders consisted of Devon Energy, Energy Transfer LP, Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66 , Continental Resources, Hilcorp Energy and the American Petroleum Institute.
Lawyers for the customers did not instantly react to ask for comment. The offenders' attorneys did not immediately react to similar demands.
The lawsuit came from a
cost war
that broke out in March 2020 between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Both countries boosted production rapidly, ending 3 years of production and sales limits, after Russia rejected cuts proposed by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC manufacturers.
Consumers stated the oil business' grievances about sinking prices triggered the Trump administration to encourage oil-producing countries to
slash production
, increasing market success.
Within about two years, the rate of a barrel of oil soared above $100 from less than $20, while the U.S. list price of a gallon of gas
more than doubled
to over $5.
In Monday's choice, Circuit Judge Ryan Nelson stated courts should not second-guess White Home diplomacy, and had no authority to order Russia and Saudi Arabia how to manage their oil resources.
He also stated the early 2020 start of the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically lowered oil demand, and was an apparent. alternative explanation for why oil business cut production.
Monday's choice supported a January 2023 judgment by U.S. District Judge Jeffrey White in Oakland, California.
Nelson was designated to the bench by Trump, a. Republican politician. The other judges on Monday's panel, Ronald Gould and. Richard Tallman, were designated by Democratic President Costs. Clinton.
The case is D'Augusta et al v American Petroleum. Institute et al, 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, No. 23-15878.
(source: Reuters)