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Maguire: Russia's boosted energy exports can cushion the blow of the Iran war.

Russia, despite its heavy sanctions and isolation from the international community, is quietly playing an important role in protecting global commodity markets against the full impact of war with Iran as well as the collapse of energy exports in the Middle East.

Russian LNG exports have reached record levels so far in 2026. Meanwhile, the country's crude oil and thermal coal shipments have also increased to multi-year records to offset some of the?record-large declines from Middle East producers.

The growth in?Russian energy exports this year is small compared to the increase in energy exports by the United States. This has led most assessments of the energy market balance to overlook it.

The share of Russia in global exports from year to date of crude oil, liquefied gas and coal has reached its highest level in many years. This provides far-flung customers with vital energy supplies at a time when global markets are in chaos.

The set-up is uncomfortable for policymakers who have to acknowledge that the same player that disrupts energy systems in Europe also acts as a stabiliser globally and helps limit energy shortages on key markets.

GROWTH SPURT

The U.S. government temporarily loosened sanctions against Russian crude oil and refined oil products. It wanted to ensure that major oil importers would have alternative options for purchasing oil after Iran had blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of March.

Shipping data from Kpler shows that Russian exporters have taken full advantage of this reprieve. They increased LNG volumes by 12.3% compared to the previous year, reaching a record 13,4 million metric tonnes during the period from January 1 to May 11.

The total Russian crude oil and condensate shipments increased by about 2 million tons, or 2.2%, from a year earlier to 91.3?million tonnes. This was the highest amount for this time period since 2023.

The Russian thermal coal exports grew by 3% between January 1, 2025 and May 11, which was again the highest amount shipped during this period.

SHARE SWELL

Kpler data indicates that the higher volumes helped Russia to increase its share in global energy products exports this year.

In the first five months of this year, Russia exported 8.4% of all global LNG. This was the highest share since 2022.

The 16.2 million ton drop in LNG exports in the Middle East has overshadowed the 1.5 million ton increase in Russian LNG exports compared with 2025.

The Russian cargoes, added to the 9,2 million tons of LNG exported by the U.S. in this year have helped soften the blow caused by the Middle East turmoil, and limited the price increases on global natural gas markets.

Spot LNG prices in Asia, the region that imports most LNG, have fallen by almost $10 per million British Thermal Units since March when they reached a three-year high. This is due to the steady increase in global LNG exports in recent weeks.

The global oil market has also been affected by the increased Russian supply, which posted its first annual increase between January and May 11, 2023.

ACCOMMODATIONS ARE AWKWARD

The increased Russian energy exports are dampening the crude, LNG, and coal markets. However, they also generate vital revenues for Moscow, even though Russia is still isolated from international communities following its invasion of Ukraine 2022.

This highlights the dilemma faced by policymakers who want to reduce Russian influence in Europe as punishment for warring in Europe.

Russia has weathered the sanctions of the West pretty well in recent years. This is mainly because it diverted shipments away from Europe's major markets to Asia's fast-growing ones.

The rerouting of cargo has ensured that Russia's oil, coal and LNG remain staple ingredients of the global energy diet even though the location of consumption has changed.

Many major energy product consumers will be grateful that Russia has remained strong. A more dramatic drop in Russian energy production and exports would have led to a?more acute tightening of the market in the aftermath of the Iran War.

The fact that Russia is still a major energy exporter also highlights the harsh reality of the market. In times of turmoil on the energy markets, buyers will look to anyone who can provide the molecules they need, no matter how well-known or respected their country may be among other nations.

Exports act as a pressure valve in key energy markets. They limit price spikes, and damage to price-sensitive economies.

If the valve was completely shut off, there could be even greater shortages on the market and higher energy prices.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)