Latest News

Maguire: Focus on the few markets where thermal coal can grow after a rare export decline

The thermal coal exporters are looking for new growth opportunities after their first annual decline in sales volume last year. COVID-19 has slammed the fuel demand in 2020. The problem is that growth markets are difficult to find.

Data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler revealed that half of the 10 largest thermal coal buyers in 2025 registered a drop in their purchase volumes year-over-year. This included the top three buyers who collectively reduced imports by almost 50 million metric tonnes.

The steep drop in thermal coal purchases led to a total decline of 33 million tons or 3% last year. This was the lowest annual shipment total for shipments since 2022.

The simultaneous drop in imports to key markets raises the possibility that coal exports have peaked and may continue to decline as more energy systems choose cleaner sources of power generation.

Exporters will continue to compete for coal-using countries in the future, even though coal usage in some primary markets appears to be declining.

THE BIG 3.

China, India, and Japan are the three largest thermal coal importers. They have accounted between them for 60% of all annual imports in 2017.

In 2025 their collective purchases will be around 565 million tons or slightly less than 59% of global total. This total is 49 million tons or 8% less than in 2024 and the lowest level since 2022.

Kpler data indicates that China was the largest coal importer in 2014, with 308 millions tons. India came second, with 157 million tonnes, followed by Japan, which imported 100 million tons.

The collective appetite of the top three coal-importing countries remains the main focus for major coal exporters like Indonesia and Australia.

The synchronised decline in collective imports of the three biggest power producers is likely to be a sign of what is to come, as coal gradually leaves power plants and industrial boilers for other sources of energy.

The rapid deployment of renewables, other clean energy sources and efforts to maintain the domestic coal mining sector in China are likely to further decrease China's coal requirements in the future.

India has a large coal-mining industry, which is the major beneficiary of government subsidies designed to maintain jobs and reduce national imports of energy products.

In Japan, the steady restarting of the nuclear power sector (which was shuttered for some time after the Fukushima disaster in 2011) is reducing the reliance on coal to generate electricity.

The coal share in utility power mixes is steadily decreasing, and coal exporters must look for other growth opportunities.

BRIGHT SPOTS

The top three coal importers will reduce their combined imports by almost 50 million tons by 2025. However, the next 10 largest importers increased their purchases last year by a total of 13 million tons.

This total represents just 4% of China’s total imports in last year. However, it still represents a sales potential for those exporters who are trying to offset declines in the biggest coal markets.

Bangladesh, among the next-largest coal markets, registered the largest annual increase in coal imports, with a 4.9-million ton rise, reaching a record high of 17 million tons.

Turkey's coal purchases increased by 4.5 million tons to 32 million tonnes, while South Korea, the world's fourth-largest coal buyer, increased their purchases by around 3.65 million tons.

Vietnam, Malaysia Thailand and the Netherlands all saw their coal imports increase by a similar amount in 2025.

ELECTRIC GROWTH

The main driver behind the increased coal imports from countries like Bangladesh, Turkey and South Korea has been the steady increase in the coal share of electricity generation.

The steadily increasing power and energy demands in Bangladesh will lead to coal's share of the utility-supplied electric output rising above 40% by 2025.

In South Korea coal generation accounted for the highest share of electricity in four years, following the reduction in nuclear power.

The coal share in Turkey's electricity mix has declined to 34% in 2025 from 35% in 2024. However, it is still the largest source of power in the country.

In fact, in most emerging markets coal is likely to remain the main power source for at least the next decade, as utilities strive to increase power supplies using the cheapest and fastest means possible.

Coal is the cheapest energy source in Turkey, Southeast Asia, and some parts of Africa.

These markets are only a fraction the size of China and India. But coal exporters who have seen their volume steadily decline in top economies will not be able to pick and choose and may need to look elsewhere for growth.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

You like this article? Check it out

Open Interest

Follow ROI on Twitter for the latest global financial news. Follow ROI on

You can find us on LinkedIn.

Listen to Morning Bid on the Morning Bid Daily Podcast

Spotify

Or the app. Subscribe to the podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)