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After tariff truce, US freight industry expects a boost in demand for back-to school supplies
Experts said that a 90-day trade thaw could be a welcome respite for the U.S. Freight Industry, as importers rush in to secure shipments before the busy back to school period. Overcapacity has caused a three-year slowdown in the $906 billion U.S. Trucking Industry. This was exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s recent tariffs against his country's biggest trading partners. The White House's agreement with the UK, and the ongoing trade negotiations with other partners have changed expectations. Instead of worrying about low freight activity, they are now expecting a possible import surge before the peak shopping season, which begins late July. Evercore ISI analyst Jonathan Chappell stated that while most transportation companies have reduced their second-quarter and full-year earning guidance due to sweeping new tariffs and weaker consumer sentiment, it is possible for Q2 forecasts to be beaten. Rolf Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd German container shipping company, said that bookings for U.S.-China were up by 50% in the last week. The carrier is also deploying different size ships to meet the demand. Chinese customs data revealed that bilateral trade between China and United States could reach $668 billion by 2024. The increase in container volumes will lead to an increased demand for trucks to transport containers from the ports and for railways to transport them to the interior. Profit gains are dependent on the cost and capacity management. A rebound in intermodal volume could be beneficial to carriers like JB Hunt. Knight-Swift. Hub Group. and Old Dominion. And railroads like Union Pacific and CSX. Surface transport in the United States is one of the first industries to notice changes in business activity. It serves as a reliable indicator for wider economic changes. C.H. Robinson's Global Forwarding President, Mike Short, said that while some retailers stocked up before tariffs were implemented, others waited and watched. Now, they are rushing to get their goods out. Dean Croke is the principal analyst of DAT Freight & Analytics. He said that given the fact we are in the back to school and retail season, the importers would place large orders, and pressurize the manufacturers in China, so they can produce as soon as possible. Experts believe that, due to the transit time, the additional freight will begin arriving at the U.S. West Coast port by the end of June, which is around the time when the peak season for produce shipping begins. Chad Schilleman is the vice-president for Drayage Services of Trinity Logistics. (Reporting and editing by Arpan Varighese, Shinjini Ganuli, and Abhinav Paramar in Bengaluru)
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CMA CGM, France, will redeploy its fleet to avoid U.S. Port Fees on Chinese vessels
The finance director of French shipping company CMA CGM said that the group will reorganize its global fleet in order to avoid U.S. Port Fees on Chinese-built ships, which are set to come into effect starting October. Port charges are another headache for shipping companies dealing with the fallout of U.S. Tariffs. However, Washington's adjustments after an industry-wide backlash has made the fee system less disruptive than expected, Ramon Fernandez said, CMA CGM’s Chief Financial Officer. The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump aims to use port fees as a counter to China's dominance on the global shipbuilding scene and to support a revival in U.S. maritime transportation. Fernandez, in an interview with CMA CGM, said that the fleet of 670 ships was made up of less than half Chinese-built vessels. Chinese shipping companies that operate ships made in China are charged the highest fees for docking at U.S. port. Fernandez said during a conference call with journalists that all shipping firms, including China's COSCO, would adapt to these fees. He did not comment on the possible impact on Ocean Alliance, an agreement for vessel sharing in which CMA CGM, COSCO, and other partners are involved. Trump praised CMA CGM for its plan to invest 20 billion dollars in the United States. CMA CGM, in reporting its first-quarter results on April 2, said that a rush to ship before the U.S. announcement of tariffs had contributed to a 4,2% increase year-over-year in its maritime volume, which in turn led to an increase in sales and profits for the group. CMA CGM is controlled by the French-Lebanese Saade Family. It also has a growing media business, and a large logistical business. CMA CGM, like its peers, said that the increase in tariffs between China and the U.S. in April had hurt trade. However, this week, demand has increased after a Sino-American deal to temporarily reduce tariffs. Fernandez stated that the group had seen around half of the bookings for May shipments cancelled before a turnaround this week. Everyone expects the trade to be more active in June than what was expected just a few short days ago. He refused to provide an estimate of container volume growth for the full year, citing uncertainty about how the trade war would play out. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson; Gus Trompiz)
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Israel attacks Yemeni ports, Houth-run television says
Al Masirah TV, a Houthi-run channel, reported that Israel had attacked the ports of Hodeidah, and Salif, along the Red Sea coastline, on Friday. This was in apparent response to militant group missile launches against Israel. Al Masirah didn't provide any further details. However, two residents of Hodeidah reported hearing four loud booms. Israel has not yet commented on the attack. They have agreed to stop attacking U.S. vessels, but they continue to fire missiles towards Israel. Israeli forces, who have carried out numerous retaliatory attacks on Houthi targets in the past, intercepted on Thursday a missile fired by the group. Israel ordered the evacuation of the ports in Ras Isa and Hodeidah earlier this week. It claimed that the Houthis, who are allied with Iran, were using them. (Reporting and editing by Hatem Maher, Mohammed Ghobari, William Maclean; Toby Chopra)
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Nigeria's Renaissance Energy stops production in Trans Niger oil pipeline
After an incident on its operations, the Nigerian oil company Renaissance Energy said it had halted the production of crude oil into the Trans Niger pipeline. This is a major oil route that transports crude oil from the onshore oilfields in Nigeria to the Bonny oil export terminal. A group of environmental rights activists said that on Thursday, the pipeline ruptured on May 6, spilling oil into B-Dere Community in Ogoniland. This is the second incident in which the pipeline has been affected in the past two months. Michael Adande said that Renaissance Group Nigeria, the Nigerian oil group which owns Shell’s former onshore subsidiary, the company operating the pipeline, “immediately disconnected the pipeline and stopped production into the line”. Adande stated that "with the cooperation of the B-Dere Community, our experts were able to access the site, clamp the pipeline, and recover spilled crude oil. Clean-up preparations are now in progress." Renaissance confirmed that a team had investigated the incident and found it to be an operational event. The Trans Niger Pipeline, with a daily capacity of approximately 450,000 barrels, is one of the two conduits used to export Bonny Light crude oil from Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer. Reporting by Tife Oholabi; Writing by Chijioke Ahuocha, Editing by Kirby Donovan
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Indian traders report that the discounts for Russia's Urals June are slightly wider at Indian ports.
Three traders reported on Friday that the discounts for Russian Urals cargoes loaded in June have widened to Brent dated from levels achieved for May loading volumes at Indian ports. The traders reported that June Urals cargoes trade at a discount of $2.70-3.10 per barrel to dated Brent, on a DES basis (delivered from ship), compared to a range of $2.50-3.00 for May cargoes. "Urals Prices are Little Changed for June Barrels or Just a Bit Weaker Compared to May Volumes," said one of the traders, adding that increased availability of alternative oil was beginning to weigh on Russian Oil Differentials. OPEC+, the oil producer group, agreed to increase production for a second month in a row in May. This will result in a June output of 411,000 barrels / day. This decision will increase oil supplies this year. The spot premiums for Russian ESPO blend crude oil shipped from the Far East of the Russian Federation to Asian markets dropped in June compared to May, as the oil supply in the region is expected to be abundant. A weak Brent oil price means that the outright price for Urals oil in Russian ports is below $60 per barrel, which is the Western price cap. This limits Russian oil sellers' revenue. India remains the largest purchaser of Russian oil via sea. The state has recently allowed more Russian insurers to cover vessels transporting oil into its ports. (Reporting from MOSCOW, and Nidhi in NEW DELHI. Editing by Jan Harvey).
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Asian spot LNG prices increase slightly after US-China Tariff truce
The Asian spot price of liquefied gas (LNG), which is a product of liquefied natural gases, rose for the second consecutive week amid an increase in demand. This was due to a slight improvement in industrial sentiment following the 90-day truce on tariffs that the United States and China agreed upon during their trade negotiations. Average LNG price for July deliveries into North-east Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) is now $11,75, up from $11,50/mmBtu in the previous week. Toby Copson is chairman of Davenport Energy Partners. He said, "Activity and prices are on the rise. Some utilities and traders have stepped in to buy June cargos." He said that although the market is not tight fundamentally, lower prices have attracted some buyers who are trying to meet their contractual volume obligations. China, which is the largest LNG consumer in the world, has recorded its lowest LNG consumption since October 2022. Due to the tariff war between the United States and China, China is reselling U.S. LNG cargoes into Europe. During trade talks held in Switzerland, the United States agreed to a 90-day truce on tariffs. It could help to unblock the trade between the world's largest economies. A final agreement between the two countries could boost economic activity in China, and increase gas demand. The positive news has supported the industrial demand expectations, said Martin Senior. Senior is head of LNG Pricing at Argus. Go Katayama is an LNG and gas analyst with Kpler, a data analytics company. He said that a further Asian price increase could be possible due to the warmer than normal temperatures in Thailand. Gas prices in Europe at the Dutch TTF Hub remain between 34 and 35 euros per megawatt-hour. While ample supply and low demand have kept prices in check, the persistently narrow JKM/TTF spread has prompted a renewed price war with Asia. The upcoming colder weather in Germany and Central Eastern Europe could push TTF prices up," Kpler’s Katayama stated. He added that "the outlook remains range bound due to the relaxed EU storage goals and coupming at key regasification site like Zeebrugge or Montoir." S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe (NWM) LNG Marker price benchmark on a basis of ex-ship (DES), for cargoes to be delivered in June at $10.897/mmBtu, on May 15. This represents a $0.63/mmBtu reduction from the gas price for June at the TTF Hub. Spark Commodities set the price at $10.946/mmBtu for June, while Argus estimated it at $10.845/mmBtu. Qasim Afghan, an analyst at Spark Commodities, stated that the U.S. Arbitrage to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope has increased marginally this week and is now pointing more towards Europe. The arbitrage via Panama, however, continues to point toward Asia. Afghan said that on the LNG market, Atlantic rates dropped by their most significant amount since January, and were assessed as $32,500/day last Friday. Pacific rates, however, remained stable at $22,250/day. (Reporting and editing by Nina Chestney; Marwa Rashad)
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Companies withdraw their guidance in the wake of Trump's tariffs
The tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed on April 2, and the subsequent pauses in some cases, have created uncertainty among companies around the world. Some of these companies have withdrawn or stopped giving financial guidance. This is a list that includes companies who have taken such steps: AUTOS & TRANSPORTATION AUTINS GROUP A UK-based company that sells car components delayed its release of market guidance for the month of April, citing the uncertainty created by U.S. Tariffs. CUMMINS The U.S. truck engine maker withdrawn its annual forecast on 5 May. Ford The U.S. automaker suspended its annual guidance May 5 after claiming that the levies will cost the company approximately $1.5 billion before interest and tax in adjusted earnings. GENERAL MOTORS On May 1, General Motors, the U.S. automaker, cut its profit forecast for 2025 two days after removing its annual guidance despite reporting strong quarter results and receiving some clarity on automotive tariffs from the White House. It also suspended plans to purchase $2 billion worth of shares during the first half year until the economy is more clarified. MERCEDES On April 30, the German group retracted its earnings guidance for 2020 after it reported a sharply lower first quarter profit. POLESTAR On April 30, the U.S.-listed Swedish electric vehicle maker put a pause on its 2025 forecast as it prepares for possible tariffs. STELLANTIS The French-Italian-American group on April 30 suspended its guidance for a moderate recovery this year, after a profit drop in 2024, and said it would review capital spending plans. VOLVO CARS On April 29, the group, which is one of the European automakers most vulnerable to U.S. Tariffs, announced a cost-cutting program of 18 billion Swedish crowns (about $1.9 billion), a restructuring of their U.S. operations, and it retracted its earnings forecasts for the next two year. AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE ALASKA GROUP ALASKA Air Group, Seattle's airline, withdrew on April 23, its financial forecast for the full year citing macroeconomic uncertainties. AMERICAN AIRLINES On April 24, the U.S. carrier canceled its financial forecast for 2025. JETBLUE AERIALWAYS On April 29, the U.S. airline group canceled its forecast for 2025, citing economic uncertainty as a reason. DELTA AIR LINES On April 9, the U.S. airline retracted its financial forecasts for 2025. It said that travel demand has "largely stalled", as tariffs have fueled economic uncertainty. FRONTIER GROUP On April 11, Frontier Airlines' parent company, Frontier Group, retracted its full-year outlook and warned that it would suffer a loss for the first quarter. SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWAST AIRLINES SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEAT AIRLINES SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST ASIA The U.S. airline group canceled its financial forecasts on April 23 HEALTHCARE BELLUSCURA On April 8, the U.S. medical device manufacturer retracted its 2025 guidance due to U.S. Tariffs on China. UNITEDHEALTH GROUP The Company suspended its annual forecast because of surging medical costs, while CEO Andrew Witty resigned May 13. Retail and Consumers AMERICAN OUTFITTERS - The apparel company retracted its annual forecasts from May 13 because of economic uncertainty fuelled by tariffs. Beyond Meat The California-based company retracted its annual sales goal on May 7, Citation Weak consumer demand in the U.S. due to macroeconomic volatility, high inflation and macroeconomic volatility. CHARACTER GROUP On April 11, the British toymaker abandoned its annual forecast, saying that it expected tariff effects to be felt on China in the second half 2025. CROCS On May 8, the U.S. shoemaker retracted its outlook for 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainty. Krispy Kreme The doughnut chain Withdrawal McDonald's released its 2025 projections on 8 May due to the macroeconomic weakness and uncertainty surrounding the McDonald's deployment schedule DIAGEO On February 4, the British spirits manufacturer retracted its forecast for medium-term growth in organic sales, citing a long-lasting decline in demand as well as uncertainty about tariffs. LOGITECH, a Swiss-American manufacturer of computer parts, canceled its forecast for 2026 on April 10 citing uncertainty arising from Trump's policies. It kept its 2025 forecast. MASCO CORP On April 23, the U.S. house improvement company retracted its annual profit forecast after it missed first-quarter profit and sales estimates. This was due to macroeconomic uncertainty caused by Trump's tariffs. MATTEL On May 5, the Barbie doll producer retracted its annual financial target, adding that it would raise prices in the U.S. for certain products to offset higher input costs as a result of Trump's tariffs against key trading partners. SKECHERS On April 24, the footwear manufacturer retracted its annual results projection, citing Trump's unpredictable trade policies as fueling economic uncertainty. SPECTRUM BRANDS The retailer said that on May 9, it did not have enough visibility to continue to provide a 2025 earnings framework. SPIN MASTER The Canadian toy manufacturer retracted its 2025 outlook on the 29th of April until the climate stabilizes. STEVEN MADDEN The U.S. footwear maker retracted its guidance for 2025 on May 7 citing uncertainty over the impact of tariffs on imported goods into the U.S. OTHERS ALPHAWAVE IP GROUP On April 17, the British semiconductor company announced that it could not provide a financial outlook for 2025 and beyond due to global economic uncertainty caused by U.S. Tariffs. Arm HOLDINGs Due to the uncertainty of global trade and economy, the UK-based chip manufacturer decided to not issue full-year guidance as of May 8. AVERY DENNISON On April 23, the U.S. company, which manufactures packaging and labels products like radio frequency tags, retracted its annual forecast, adding that it would now be shifting to quarterly estimates due to macroeconomic uncertainty. PAGEGROUP PAGEGROUP, a British recruiter, did not provide a financial outlook in its quarterly report on April 9, citing "increasingly uncertain" economic conditions.
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Asia's high-sulfur fuel oil nears record highs
LSEG and market data indicate that the cracks in Asia's 380 cst high sulphur fuel (HSFO) closed on Friday at a record high. LSEG data show that the 380-cst HSFO/Brent cracked for June closed at a premium of $3.70 a barrel, which is the highest ever recorded. The 380-cst HSFO/Dubai cracked closed at a $4.45 premium per barrel. Market sources and analysts stated that HSFO cracks were supported during recent trading sessions because of the expectation of seasonal strength in the market and lower crude prices. Markets usually firm up in the second half of the year, as summer power generation peaks across the Middle East. This also caps exports. Emril Jamil is a senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research and he said that the expectation of a stronger seasonal demand for power generation has made the high-sulphur complex stronger in comparison to Dubai, and this has led to broader intermonth spreads. Once sufficient inventories have been built up, the cracks will likely be under downward pressure. In recent sessions, the spot benchmarks of HSFO remained at a maximum. Singapore's cash differentials were pressured by the abundance of prompt supplies. Ivan Mathews of Vortexa's APAC Analysis said that the higher HSFO cracked prices are mainly due to a fall in crude oil prices. He added that market fundamentals have not changed recently. (Reporting and editing by Shinjini Ganuli; Jeslyn Lerh)
Data shows that Venezuela's state oil company exports crude grade previously exported by Chevron
Venezuela's PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, has started exporting heavy crude oil grades that Chevron had shipped since 2022. This follows the cancellation of cargoes sent to the U.S. manufacturer amid uncertainty over payment. In March, the U.S. Treasury Department revoked Chevron's license to expand operations at four joint ventures located in Venezuela sanctioned and export crude oil to the U.S.
PDVSA canceled cargoes scheduled for Chevron last month, citing Chevron's inability fully to pay for them. It also ordered the return of two tankers which had already set sail.
PDVSA took steps to improve oil production and upgrade crude since then. This has increased supplies to refineries in Venezuela. The cancellation of the cargo has caused an increase in oil stocks in recent weeks. This has led the company to need floating storage. Venezuela's oil output fell by 10% in April compared to the previous month, to 780,000 barrels a day (bpd). This was largely due to the dispute with Chevron.
One of the maritime documents revealed that a 920,000 barrel cargo of Venezuelan heavy Boscan oil, produced by PDVSA and Chevron's joint venture Petroboscan in the first half of this month, was shipped to Malaysia, which is a hub for transshipment of Venezuelan crude headed for China.
According to LSEG's data and monitoring service TankerTrackers.com, the Suezmax vessel left Venezuela's Amuay Ship-to-Ship area on June 20 and will arrive in Malaysia by around that date.
Chevron was the sole exporter of Venezuelan crude oil Boscan before the cargo cancellations.
PDVSA and Chevron didn't immediately respond to requests for comments. Venezuelan socialist President Nicolas Maduro has said that the U.S. sanction amounts to "economic warfare."
PDVSA controlled all exports in 2020 when Washington restricted foreign oil companies' licenses to operate in Venezuela. (Reporting and Editing by Paul Simao; Staff Reporting)
(source: Reuters)