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Vietnam's plan to avoid US tariffs

According to UN data, U.S. president Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on all Vietnam's exports to the top market. These goods, which accounted for more than $142 billion in sales last year, or about 30% of Vietnam’s GDP, could be affected.

Vietnam has benefited from Trump's trade war against China during his first term. However, Vietnamese officials and foreign businesses are uncertain of the outcome. Vietnam is one of the biggest surpluses in the U.S., and it meets many criteria for possible reciprocal tariffs.

Here are some measures that Vietnamese officials have suggested, are considering, or may help avoid tariffs.

DUTIES AND NON-TRADE BARRIERS

Vietnam charges a higher average duty than the United States, and it also adds a value-added tax to goods. Nevertheless, some economists have calculated that the effective bilateral tariff rate in Vietnam is lower.

The Trump administration has not yet specified the rates it is considering for determining possible reciprocal duties, but U.S. officials have used average duties as a benchmark.

Vietnam has shown an openness for compromises, but lowering tariffs on U.S. products may force it to lower them on other trading partners as well.

In its 2024 report, the Office of the United States Trade Representative listed a number of non-trade barriers that Vietnam has imposed, such as import bans, complicated registration requirements, and technical and sanitary obstacles.

Imports of Energy

Officials have stated that Vietnamese officials have discussed several times with their counterparts in the United States possible purchases of U.S. LNG for Vietnam's fledgling industry. However, no concrete steps have yet been taken.

The country also plans to relaunch its nuclear energy programme and is searching for suppliers of nuclear technology.

Agriculture Goods

Vietnam's Trade Minister has stated that it is willing to import more U.S. agricultural products. The increase in agricultural imports will not significantly reduce trade imbalances, as Vietnam imported $3.4 billion worth of farm products last year.

TRANSHIPMENT OF STEEL

Vietnam has been suspected for a long time of being a hub of transhipment of Chinese goods into the U.S., given the large volumes of intermediate products it imports. Some products, such as solar panel have already been sanctioned.

Vietnam announced last week that it would impose temporary antidumping duties on Chinese products. The country is facing the threat of 25% tariffs being imposed on its steel exports into the U.S., on top of Washington's antidumping duties already imposed on Vietnamese steel.

DEFENCE STARLINK

Officials with knowledge of the situation say that Hanoi is in advanced talks with U.S. defense firms about the purchase of military transport aircraft Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules.

In February, the Vietnamese Parliament approved the legal framework of a pilot program that would allow Elon Musk’s Starlink to offer satellite internet and security in Vietnam.

PLANES

VietJet, the Vietnamese budget airline, has agreed to purchase 200 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft in a multibillion-dollar deal that was first signed in 2016, and then revised later.

The company has not yet received any planes, despite stating that it was expecting to receive its first jets in the last year. The company has expressed interest in expanding the agreement without specifying how.

DEPORTATIONS

A U.S. lawyer confirmed that Vietnam issues travel documents to Vietnamese nationals who are detained in the U.S.

MONETARY POLICY

Trump's first term as President ended with Treasury declaring Vietnam a currency manipulator.

The United States is on a watchlist of countries that may be manipulating the currency. The central bank of Vietnam has allowed the Vietnamese currency to fall against the dollar in recent months. According to Adam Samdin, an Oxford Economics analyst, this may be a sign that the government is willing to tolerate a weaker currency.

The central bank said that it would continue to monitor Trump's policies and make adjustments.

GOLF DIPLOMATICS

In October, the local partner of The Trump Organization announced that it had agreed to build a golf course worth $1.5 billion in Vietnam.

(source: Reuters)