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SCENARIOS - Deal, delay or strike? Investors are on edge as Trump's Iran date approaches

Investors are weighing the various outcomes, from a ceasefire to a renewed military escalation, and their impact on oil, currencies, and risky assets.

Iran did not show any sign of 'agreeing' to Trump’s demand that the Strait of Hormuz be opened by Tuesday evening or face massive attacks on civilian infrastructure. This would be the largest escalation of the?war yet. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Iran has 'cut off direct diplomacy' with the U.S.

Trump gave Iran until 8 pm in Washington (midnight GMT, and 3.30 am in Tehran) on Friday to end its Gulf oil blockade. This move has shook the commodities and financial markets in recent weeks.

David Morrison is a senior market analyst with Trade Nation. He said that the markets are in a binary situation, as they attempt to position themselves before a deadline. This will either result in a quick resolution or an abrupt escalation.

The S&P 500 index fell by nearly one percent on Tuesday. Gold and the dollar also declined, but oil rose.

Here's what could happen:

MILITARY ESCALATION

Citigroup stated in a note that a prolonged conflict or severe disruptions to oil supply could drive Brent crude prices up to $130.

Investors would price in a sharp slowdown of the economy and higher inflation by selling cyclical and interest rate-sensitive stocks.

Pete Mulmat, of IG North America, said that American Airlines, as well as other travel stocks like Carnival, are the most vulnerable to rising fuel costs and weakening consumer demand. Palantir, on the other hand, and CrowdStrike, an AI-defense hybrid, have the biggest upside if volatility increases and the conflict continues.

The U.S. Dollar has been one of the major beneficiaries of the safe haven trade sparked by?the conflict.

Steve Englander, Standard Chartered's FX strategist, stated that if oil prices are expected to remain high for a longer period of time, the USD may strengthen. This could increase inflation and output pressures on energy importers.

The rise in the dollar could also put pressure on the Japanese yen, and increase the possibility of an intervention from the Bank of Japan.

UniCredit analysts stated that the BOJ would intervene likely if USD/JPY rose quickly above 160 and reached its highs of July 2024 near 162. The last time the yen traded was at 159.82.

PEACE DEAL

Trump has abruptly backed off similar threats to escalate the conflict over the last few weeks. He cited what he described as productive discussions with unidentified Iranian figures, even though Tehran denies that any substantive talks took place.

S&P 500 is up about 4% from its low of late March, which was a seven-month high. This rebound has been attributed to the hope for a resolution.

J.P. Morgan analysts stated that if a ceasefire were to occur, they would expect bond yields to fall, oil/energy prices to drop significantly, USD to be sold off, credit spreads tightened, and equity markets to soar.

Stocks of energy, fertilizer, and defense companies that have surged in recent months on the expectation of a long conflict and higher input costs, could give back some of their gains. Oil-sensitive airlines and cruise operators, which have been hit hard by the oil price slump, could recover some of their losses as travel demand expectations improve and fuel prices fall.

Bets on rate reductions could also be reinstated if the conflict in the Middle East de-escalates. Oil prices have spiked and inflationary fears are causing traders to expect a prolonged pause on monetary easing this year.

Extension of Deadline

Investors may be tempted to take risks in the short-term if they believe that a deal is near.

Raffi Boysadjian is the lead analyst at Trading Point. He referred to a Wall?Street cliche that Trump "always chickens out."

J.P. Morgan analysts prefer a neutral stance due to?unresolved risks in shipping and uncertainty about energy supply.

Brent crude is expected to stay around its current price range of $10 per barrel as long as the Strait of Hormuz continues to be closed.

Gold prices could remain the same as long-term uncertainty continues to drive hedging. The stronger dollar has hurt gold prices, which have dropped 12% since war began. (Reporting by Sruthi Shankar, Medha Singh, Anjana Anil, Vidya Ranganathan and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; editing by Colin Barr and Sriraj Kalluvila)

(source: Reuters)