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EU bans Russia's LNG exports

This week, the European Union's (EU) ban on reexporting Russian LNG via EU ports came into force. The EU's goal is to reduce Moscow’s revenue after its invasion of Ukraine.

The ban prohibiting the reloading Russian cargoes in EU ports to export to a third country was implemented in June 2024. A moratorium will be enforced until March 26th, 2025, for contracts that were signed before June 25, 2018.

Gas experts claim that the measure will have little effect, as transshipments via EU ports into Asia represents less than 10% total Russian LNG exports. However, suppliers would direct this volume towards Europe.

Here are some facts about Russian LNG Exports.

RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS

In 2024, Russia will be the fourth largest LNG exporter in the world with an annual output of 34.7 millions metric tons. This is up 4% from 2023. Analysts estimate around 2.7 millions tons of LNG were reloaded at EU ports in 2024 for exports to Asia.

The EU does not have any immediate plans to stop purchasing Russian LNG. The EU has stated that it plans to gradually wean itself from Russian gas by the year 2027 thanks to increased exports of Norwegian, United States, and Qatar.

According to a report by the global energy think-tank Ember, Russian gas imports in the EU will increase by 18% by 2024.

The study stated that "this trend will continue in 2025 with an average of 74.3 million cubic metres per day in Russian LNG imports to the EU in February. This represents a 11% increase in a month."

TRANS-SHIPMENTS

From November to June, Russian LNG exports are dependent on EU ports because thick ice blocks access by traditional LNG vessels to Yamal LNG Arctic terminals owned by gas producer Novatek.

Ship-to-ship transfers (STS) are used to reload cargoes onto regular gas carriers, which are then exported to China, Taiwan and India.

Novatek, Russia’s largest LNG producer and Yamal LNG’s principal shareholder, has signed long-term contracts with firms including China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), Shell and TotalEnergies (oil majors), German company Securing Energy For Europe and Gunvor, to sell 17 million tons of LNG per year to Europe.

Two Terms

The main LNG terminals in Belgium and France are Montoir LNG and Zeebrugge LNG.

Fluxys, a Belgian gas transport company, has signed a contract for ten years with Yamal LNG to transship gas at Zeebrugge.

Engie, a French energy company, has a contract for 23 years to manage STS operations. TotalEnergies now holds the contract after it purchased Engie's portfolio of LNG.

Robert Songer is an analyst with data intelligence company ICIS. He said that in 2024 around 47 vessels will have completed STSs between Zeebrugge, and Montoir. According to an average LNG cargo of 70,000 tons in 2024, this represents 9.2% of the total Russian LNG exports.

MOSCOW IMPACT

The ban on LNG transshipment will have a limited impact because of the small volume, but it would raise costs for Russian companies as well as disrupt logistics.

Charles Costerousse is a senior LNG analyst with Kpler. He said that Russian LNG could still be transshipped easily within Russian waters, at Murmansk, Kaliningrad, or other possible locations in the Mediterranean.

(source: Reuters)