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Gulf shipping prices drop after Israel-Iran ceasefire

Sources in the shipping and insurance industries said that the cost of shipping to the Gulf has dropped over the last two days following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. However, rates may rise if tensions continue to increase.

Concerns were raised that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, through which 20% of the global oil and gas supply flows. There was also a fear that oil prices could rise to $100 per barrel.

Supertankers that can transport 2 million barrels per day of oil saw their shipping rates more than double in the week prior to the ceasefire, reaching $60,000 per day. Freight data revealed that rates were around $50,000 per day on Thursday. In a note, Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta stated that "tanker rates have decreased following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran."

After 12 days of fighting, Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire Tuesday.

The Greek shipping ministry eased Thursday requirements for its merchants, no longer advising that they report their voyages through Hormuz. They said the situation appeared to have improved.

Sources said that war risk insurance rates for Gulf shipments have dropped to 0.35-0.45% from Monday's peak of 0.5%. Sources said that this is a drop from recent levels of 0.3%.

The cost of a 7-day cruise is determined by the value of the vessel. This means that the additional costs per day will be reduced by tens and thousands of dollars.

David Smith, the head of marine at McGill and Partners Insurance Brokerage, said that rates have definitely lowered.

"While war premiums remain significant, there are a number of war-risk insurers who want to offer capacity and underwrite risks. This in combination with an improved political climate is pushing rates down. The situation is still fluid.

Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, said that Iran would strike American military bases throughout the Middle East in response to any future U.S. attacks. This was his first public statement since the ceasefire. Reporting by Jonathan Saul and Yannis Soulieotis, with additional reporting by Michael Jones from The Insurer. Editing by Ed Osmond.

(source: Reuters)