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Indian steel prices to increase further due to rising coking coal prices and demand revival

Executives and analysts expect Indian steel prices to increase 'further' in the upcoming?weeks due to a pickup in demand for infrastructure?and?automotives following the monsoon. Meanwhile, higher coking coal prices will raise production costs at mills.

While higher prices may help mills recover from margins squeezed due to rising coking coal costs but input costs for infrastructure, construction, and auto companies are increasing as demand increases.

Government data revealed that mills in India, which is the second largest producer of crude steel after China, reduced prices for products like hot-rolled coils (HRCs) by 280 rupees per metric ton.

According to commodities consultancy BigMint, HRC prices increased by 4,000 rupees a metric ton from August to early September to a record high.

Vedant Goel is the director of Enlight Metals. He said, "We expect steel to rise by about 3,500 rupees a ton in the coming weeks."

Shankhadeep Mukherjee is the principal analyst of steel at CRU, a London-based consultancy.

BigMint reported that the sharp price recovery was supported by planned mill maintenance shutdowns, tighter availability at spots and low distributor inventories.

A large steel mill executive who wasn't authorized to speak with the media said that further price increases will be expected in the near future, due to maintenance shutdowns and post-monsoon stocking. Other factors include festive demand, project demands, and higher costs of?coking coal.

Imports are a major source of pressure.

The executives stated that a significant increase in steel price is unlikely to occur within the next few months, due to rising imports from China and other countries.

India imposed safeguard duties on certain steel imports to stem a surge of overseas shipments. In June, it also launched an anti-dumping probe into HRC imports originating from China. Japan and Russia.

Imports are up despite the trade restrictions.

India was a net steel importer between April and July. The government's data shows that finished steel imports increased 36.6% compared to a year earlier. China was the biggest supplier of India's steel imports.

Fitch Ratings said that if the competitive pressure returns, higher imports will be the main risk to margins.

(source: Reuters)