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Images from Estonia show machine guns on Russian LNG carriers in Baltic
Estonia released images of a Russian-flagged LNG carrier in the Baltic Sea this spring with machine guns and sandbags, indicating a more aggressive stance from Moscow to 'protect its civilian fleet. Surveillance images show machine gun positions fortified on the roof of the Marshal Vasilevskiy civilian vessel, which has its home port in Kaliningrad. Yoruk isik, a geopolitical expert who runs the Bosphorus Observer consulting, described it as "a crazy step" by civilian vessels operating in the Baltic. Isik said that "this is a hostile act by Russia" to send a signal to EU and NATO nations, saying it would actively oppose any attempts to detain or inspect its ships. "There's no justification for a self-defence posture such as a machine gun on the Baltic... It is clear that the high seas are becoming more lawless. According to LSEG tracking data, the Marshal Vasilevskiy (owned by Gazprom's unit Gazprom Flot LLC) has transported LNG from a port in St Petersburg to Kaliningrad four times since 2025 began, and most recently, last May. The route follows the coastline of Estonia. A spokesperson for Estonian Police and Border Guard Service said that the images were taken in the spring of this year on the Baltic Sea, within Estonia's responsibility area. A spokesperson for the Estonian Navy said that the Estonian Navy had not found any civilian vessels in the 'Estonian Area of Responsibility' with weapons on board. Gazprom has not responded to a request for comment. "We cannot tolerate the blocking of our main maritime routes." In an interview published in June 15, Nikolai Patrushev said that the Baltic and Black Seas are responsible for most of our maritime trade. It is vital to ensure that the Russian fleet can counter all threats. Sanctions and Seizures Since the beginning of the year, nine suspected shadow fleet oil tanks - vessels with a Russian connection and opaque ownership that sail under flags to skirt Western sanctions - have all been seized in Europe. The most recent was by France on 26th June. The United Kingdom sanctioned the Marshal Vasilevskiy in October 2024. Canada in February 2025, and Australia in December 2020. Gazprom flot was sanctioned in April by the EU. Unofficially, a Baltic security official said that the vessel is unlikely to be seized as it doesn't fall under the shadow fleet and sails with the Russian flag. The official stated that it was difficult to know what the Russians were thinking. Since the Baltic Sea became a NATO lake in 2004, Russians are stressed by anything going on there. So maybe they're just overthinking and reacting." Ivo Vark, the Estonian Navy Commander, stated in April that Russia was increasing its military presence between Estonia and Finland. This is the route leading to the ports of?St Petersburg where a large share of Russia's?energy exports are loaded. Vark said in April that Estonia has stopped trying to detain vessels with a Russian connection which do not present an immediate threat because "the risks of military escalation are too high". In January 2019, Putin inaugurated the Marshal Vasilevskiy which is capable of regasifying LNG directly into a gas pipeline. This was to provide a backup gas supply for Kaliningrad, a militarised exclave in Russia, in case gas supplies through NATO member Lithuania were disrupted. (Reporting and editing by Ros Russell in Vilnius)
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Wayve, a new AI-driven driving system that can learn like humans, is attracting automakers.
Wayve, a startup in autonomous-driving technology, is riding the wave of investor interest. The London-based startup has?raised $2.8 billion in funding from a list of investors and strategic partnerships that includes major names from the automotive and technology sectors, including Nvidia, Mercedes-Benz and?Nissan. Wayve announced in June that it would deploy its robotaxis system from Jeep maker Stellantis to Uber's ride hailing network. Wayve uses an ?artificial-intelligence ?technology called end-to-end machine learning to navigate roadways, which is supposed to instantly translate sensor-generated data into driving decisions, much like a human driver. This is different from the more traditional approach that combines AI with high-definition mapping and software coding to create presets rules for how a car should react in various scenarios, such as unforeseen events. Wayve's method is similar to that of another major autonomous-driving company, Tesla. Tesla moved to a end-to-end approach a few year ago. Wayve's technology is not like Tesla's, however, as it uses a variety of sensors, including AI chips, to create its system. It could then license the technology to any developer of driverless cars, according to Wayve CEO Alex Kendall. Kendall is a 33-year old New Zealander and co-founded Wayve in 2017, the same year that he finished his PhD in AI deep-learning at Cambridge University, England. Kendall said earlier this year that he wanted to make self-driving possible for any car, any brand and anywhere in the world. He was sitting behind the wheel of a Ford Mustang Mach-E equipped with Wayve’s driverless technology, which autonomously navigated San Francisco Bay Area neighbourhoods where the company has a major tech center. WAYMO EXPANSION FUELS INDUSTRY MOMENTUM After years of missed targets and overstated promises, the competition in the autonomous driving industry has intensified. Alphabet’s Waymo has experienced rapid growth over the last two years. It now offers paid rides in a dozen cities after more than 10 years of development. Kendall was one of the few researchers who pursued end-to-end AI a decade ago. Many autonomous-driving developers are now integrating at least some aspects end-to-end AI into their systems. The AI-centric approach does raise a dilemma: because end-to-end navigation systems are ambiguous and "black boxes" in nature, it is difficult to understand the driving decisions of the vehicle. In earlier versions of driverless vehicles, the software code was used to guide the vehicle to a safe route. It was therefore easier to understand why a car took a particular path. Wayve's AI driving engine creates a safety map for traffic situations that are unfolding and determines the safest paths for vehicles. Wayve engineers believe the conventional, programming-intensive safety approach hinders an AI driving system's ability to stay safe in unusual cases because it is hard to write rules to prepare for very unusual situations. Vijay Badrinarayanan is Wayve's vice-president of AI. He said that when such difficult-to-predict situations occur, the safety logic of a preprogrammed system becomes "brittle". Human drivers are safe because they adjust conservatively to unknown situations. Shooting for Safety at Scale Waymo is using end-to-end AI, but it also uses a conventional, rules-based method achieved by software coding and mapping, which, according to the company, is still necessary for safety. The company said that "end-to-end" models were not enough to ensure safety on a large scale. Nissan, one of Wayve's clients, has yet to feel comfortable with the safety approach. Eiichi Akashi is Nissan's Tech?chief. His team is closely evaluating Wayve's technology ahead of Nissan's plans to deploy it on a people mover van named Elgrand in Japan during the year that ends March 2028. He says the system is the "most advanced" but that it's "difficult?to?peer in and see how it makes decision?" Kendall says that Wayve with its major operations in Tokyo Stuttgart and Vancouver should be able expand into new markets quickly because it doesn't need to do the tiresome step of mapping and writing code for local road quirks. Wayve claims to have successfully tested its AI-driven driving system in hundreds cities around the globe without doing any initial preparation work. Siddartha Khastgir, professor of safe autonomy at University of Warwick in England, says end-to-end model deployment should be quicker than more traditional approaches. He said that he would not say one technology was safer than another. Phil Koopman, a Carnegie Mellon University computer-engineering professor and autonomous-technology expert, said Wayve's method for handling unusual traffic situations is but one approach, and others may also prove successful. He still believes it will take at least 10 years to safely deploy driverless vehicles across the U.S. It will probably require new innovations to get there.
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Dassault confirms new rift with Airbus regarding Eurodrone
Dassault Aviation CEO, Mr. Trappier, said 'Wednesday' that Airbus 'tried to kick them out of the multinational Eurodrone project. This confirms a separate rift between planemakers and the collapse of plans for an European fighter jet. Airbus refused to comment on Trappier’s comments. They confirm that the Eurodrone dispute is real after it was reported last month that Dassault wanted compensation from Airbus. "For us, it's very simple. Airbus told us 'get out,' CEO Eric Trappier said to a French Senate committee when asked about Eurodrone surveillance. "We disagree and are currently in discussion on why we have been excluded. I can't say anything more about the program because "relations have broken down at a (programme) level", he said. People familiar with the situation said that the Eurodrone dispute is about a smaller share of work for 'Dassault' after Paris decided to halt purchases of the rival product of the U.S., the 'Reaper, which was being developed by France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith, Florence Loeve, Tim Hepher)
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Traders say that the price of Urals crude oil in India has fallen to its lowest level in four months due to an abundance of supply and increased competition.
Three 'trade sources' told us on Wednesday that the price differentials between Russia Urals crude delivered to India in August had?fallen to its lowest level since late February amid a plethora of?supply? and increasing competition. The discount for August Urals cargoes shipped to Indian ports under the DES system had widened from $4 to $7 per barrel compared to the benchmark Brent dated 10 days ago. The price of Russia's flagship grade in India is at its lowest level since the Iran war began, as Middle Eastern producers resume their shipments through the Strait of Hormuz after the interim peace agreement last month. The Urals discount to Brent increased to $10 per barrel during the winter when U.S. sanctions tightened and disrupted Russian oil trading, up from $1 to $3 per barrel last summer. The Gulf of Oman is expected to boost its crude oil supplies as the Strait of Hormuz opens again. Russia has also increased?exports. As a result of the Ukrainian drone attacks, Russia will ship a record volume of 'crude' from its western ports this June. India's.imports of Russian crude oil surged in June to a new record, according to.ship tracking data.from LSEG. Reporting by. Mark Potter (Editing by Mark Potter).
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ROI-Putin's diesel export ban risks new fuel shock: Bousso
The looming Russian ban on diesel exports could not have come at a worse time. After the largest energy shock in decades and a dangerously low global fuel inventory, another supply cut could threaten to undermine a fragile recovery. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Sunday that the Kremlin is considering a ban of diesel exports, after acknowledging the mounting shortages in Russia. These shortages were triggered by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries as part of Kyiv's expanding energy campaign against Moscow during the fifth year the Ukraine war. Fuel is the mainstay of global economy, powering everything from heavy transport and industry to tractors and construction equipment. The market has yet to recover from the Strait of Hormuz closure, which cut off oil supply when the Iran conflict broke out on February 28, 2008. Diesel prices soared in April as 13% of the world's oil supply was cut off. This sudden shortage triggered severe shortages, and depleted already low global inventories. Reopening the strait after the interim U.S./Iran deal of June 17 has brought relief. Tanker traffic is uneven and below pre-war levels. However, trapped Gulf barrels have begun to flow again. This has helped to?drive down Brent crude prices by more than 40%. A new conflict is arising in an old conflict, just as the worst effects of the Middle East's energy crisis begin to fade. RUSSIAN SHORTAGES The Russian government's threat to ban diesel exports highlights the country's own strained position. In recent months, the world's third largest crude producer - and major diesel supplier - has suffered significant damage to its infrastructure as Ukraine intensified attacks against?oil refineries and terminals across the country. Moscow's main refinery was hit twice in the last month, and will remain offline for six months. The strikes have affected around a quarter (roughly 7 million barrels per day) of Russia's refining capacity. Fuel prices are up and there are long queues at filling station across the country. According to local media, Russia could even be forced into importing fuel. This would be a dramatic reversal of fortunes for a country which has been a major supplier of refined products on the global market. Exports are already suffering a severe blow. According to Kpler, Russian diesel seaborne shipments fell sharply over the past few months. In June, they dropped to 426,000 bpd, which is the lowest level since at least January 2017. This is down from 827,00 bpd in the previous year, when Russia was second largest diesel exporter behind the U.S. and accounted for 11% global seaborne supply. Turkey and Brazil are the two largest buyers. The rest of the money is mainly going to Africa. The impact of a complete export ban would be felt far beyond the borders of Russia, given its timing. The ban is coming at an alarming time. Global inventories of refined product have been rapidly reduced in the past few months, to make up for lost Middle Eastern volumes. According to Energy Information Administration, the distillate stock in the U.S. is just above a 23 year low of 100 million barrels, reached in May. Other inventories tell a similar tale. According to Insights Global's report, diesel stocks in northwest Europe - a major importer of diesel - have fallen by around 20% since the beginning of the Iran War. This has left the region with a small buffer against new supply shocks. The market is also entering a period of criticality, as inventories are usually rebuilt in preparation for winter, which can be characterized by increased demand due to the heating season, freight and agriculture. DANGER AHEAD The diesel refining margins have already begun to flash red. According to LSEG, in Europe, benchmark diesel refinery margins, also known as cracks, have jumped by more than 35% following the U.S.Iran interim deal. This reverses earlier declines, and has risen above $46 a barrel. Singapore cracks are now back above $40 per barrel in Asia. The 'gradual normalization' of Gulf crude flow rates should allow Asian refineries to increase their run rates following months of disruption. This will help to alleviate some of the tightness of global fuel supplies. This relief, however, may not be enough. The fragile rebalancing that is currently underway could be thrown off course if Russia removes more barrels from the market. Diesel prices would rise again, inventories would be depleted and costs for consumers, transport, industry, and the government will increase. The global economy cannot afford to suffer another energy shock after one of the worst in recent decades. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Dassault, France's fighter manufacturer, is open to collaboration after the collapse of its programme
?French planemaker Dassault Aviation is open to cooperation ?after the collapse of a Franco-German-Spanish fighter programme, its ?CEO said on Wednesday, while ?leaving open the prospect ?of ?working with a non-European partner. Eric Trappier gave his first official testimony since Germany, France and Airbus scrapped last month a project for a new generation fighter due to industrial disputes. He told a French Senate committee that "we are capable of cooperating. We have demonstrated it in the past. But we want to 'cooperate with rules accepted from the beginning." Trappier claimed that the failure of the core fighter project of FCAS was due to irreconcilable differences with Airbus. Dassault has blamed Airbus for the breakdown. Trappier responded, "We could do it ourselves, it's possible. Or we can find partners." Does this partner have to be exclusively European? It's an open-ended question." It has been rumored that France might turn to the Swedish planemaker Saab or team up with an importing Middle East nation to develop its next generation fighter aircraft due to budget constraints. Airbus is also courting Saab. Trappier stated that he hopes to get a contract for development by the end this year. This is the next version of Dassault’s existing Rafale fighter, known as Rafale F5. He said: "We're studying the F5 now with our partners, and that should lead to a development contract by the end the year if we are to keep our schedule." Reporting by Florence Loeve, Tim Hepher and Elaine Hardcastle; Editing by Alexander Smith and Elaine Hardcastle
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Joachim Klement: The next Iran war could be closer than you think.
The Iran war is over, but many people may mistake a pre-election break for peace. Tehran's economic leverage will remain strong until the U.S. midterm election in November but may weaken after the results are announced, increasing the risk of renewed confrontation. How can the rest of the globe avoid being collateral damage in this new dangerous environment? It is unclear whether the 60-day negotiations between the U.S. The most important thing for the markets is the fact that the interim agreement has restored the energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz. This was the crucial energy chokepoint which had been effectively closed off during the conflict. Crude prices have fallen to levels seen before the war. However, the clock is ticking. Many, including myself, argued from the beginning of the war that the rising oil price would have a greater impact on the politics of the conflict than missiles or diplomacy. This seems to be borne out now. Although the war may have been longer than anticipated, economic and political pressures seem to have heavily influenced Donald Trump's decision, as demonstrated by the U.S. willingness of giving Iran many items from its wish list for the simple act of reopening strait. The midterm elections held in November have always been a key deadline for the administration. This is still the case. What will happen to the power balance between Washington and Tehran once the midterm elections are over? Peace for Now The American public was unpopular about the war. Trump's net rating in anEconomist/YouGov survey fell from -negative 17 at the beginning of the war to -negative 24 before a ceasefire framework announcement, and it has since recovered to -negative 21. The rise in energy prices played a major role. Trump's net rating for inflation and price has plummeted to a negative 40. The trajectory of gasoline prices in the coming months will determine how much damage the Trump administration is able to control. Energy Information Administration data shows that pump prices have fallen from near $4.50 per gallon during the war to $3.90. If peace talks fail, this could change. Tehran may not need to even close the Strait of?Hormuz in order to influence energy costs. The Iranian government may not even need to close the Strait of?Hormuz in order to influence energy prices. This risk premium can quickly affect crude oil and gasoline prices as well as freight costs, fertilisers, and industrial input costs. This gives Iran more power in an election year. Brent crude is down 40% since the peak of the war. Energy traders are willing to ignore minor incidents between the U.S. This could change quickly, however, if Iran appears to be willing to use its Hormuz cards again. THE RISK RETURNS However, the delicate balance of power could change dramatically after the U.S. Midterm elections on November 3. If Republicans lose their seats, Trump may face a hostile or divided Congress that makes it more difficult to pass legislation and budgets. RealClear Polling shows that Democrats currently lead the generic congressional ballot with a margin of over five percentage points. They are believed to have an excellent chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives where they need only a net gain of 5 seats. Trump may be more tempted to pursue political victories overseas, where there are fewer restrictions from Congress and the courts. Trump has been criticized both domestically and internationally for an interim agreement that favors Iran. Brent's rapid retreat also suggests that energy traders are able to quickly dismiss political risks. This could make renewed military action more appealing after the midterm elections. Iran has the upper hand for now. But that could change in the fall if the parties cannot reach a final agreement. This is a possibility, given the distance between the parties on important sticking points, such as Iran's nuke program. This seesawing leverage does not lead to a permanent war, but rather persistent risk. The SAFER STRATEGIC BET This leaves the large energy consumers - such as Europe and Asia - susceptible to sudden spikes in gas and oil prices, and disruptions in the supply of fertilizers and other commodities. Reduce the influence imported fossil fuels have on their economies. Europe appears to have got the memo. Many governments in the area are reconsidering their domestic oil and natural gas production as a temporary solution and increasing investments in renewables, nuclear power and other energy sources to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. This shift will increase the supply chain dependence on China as the dominant player in renewables. The nature of this dependence is not the same as a reliance on imported energy. If imports of gas and oil are stopped, the power plants and refineries who rely on these products will be immediately under pressure. If China restricted exports of'solar cells or?wind turbines, existing wind and solar farms would continue to operate. Which is a safer'strategic bet'? The Iran War may have ended, but a longer battle could be just beginning. It is important for countries that are vulnerable to prepare. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. (Writing and Editing by Margueritachoy and Anna Szymanski.)
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Taiwanese ships should not board China coast guard vessels, Taipei claims
Senior officials said that Taiwanese vessels off the east coast of Taiwan should ignore any 'boarding and inspection' demands from China's Coast Guard. China, which views Taiwan, democratically governed, as its territory, sent Coast Guard vessels last month to the waters off Taiwan’s east coast, angering Taipei, for what they called a “special maritime traffic law enforcement operation”. China claimed that the operation was a response to an announcement made by Japan and Philippines that they were going to begin formal discussions on their maritime boundaries. Beijing believed this would involve Chinese waters near Taiwan. Hsieh Ching -chin, the deputy head of Taiwan Coast Guard, answered questions from lawmakers in parliament. He said that if there was an "incident", ships should "notify Taiwan Coast Guard" and "not reply to so-called "boarding inspections" by Chinese vessels. He added that if the situation was urgent, Coast Guard vessels would sail between the two boats to separate them. The China Taiwan Affairs Office has not responded to a comment request. China has said that the waters surrounding Taiwan are Chinese, and Taipei does not have its own'sovereignty. Hsieh stated that if the same request were made of a foreign registered ship in Taiwan waters then "in order to defend our sovereignty and maintain our waters we will intervene". He added, "China has no jurisdiction in our waters." The Chinese patrol last month did not include any requests for ship boarders from Taiwan or China. Taiwanese officials said that the Chinese coast guard vessels "harassed commercial shipping" by asking for information about its origin and destination, and claiming jurisdiction. In 2024, Chinese coast guard personnel briefly boarded an?Taiwanese tourist boat near Taiwan controlled islands adjacent to China's coastline. The United States, Britain, France, and Germany are concerned about China's patrols near Taiwan's eastern coast. (Reporting and editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan; Ben Blanchard)
Traders say that sanctions force Russia to dump its naphtha in STS transfer and storage hubs.
Traders and LSEG data show that Russia has increased its naphtha exports to STS and port storage hubs, as key buyers reduce imports due to?Western sanction pressure.
Since the European Union's full embargo against Russian oil products went into effect in February 2023?,?most? of?Russian naphtha is being directed towards the Middle East and Asia. India and Taiwan were among the largest Asian buyers. However, recent U.S. sanction have caused both countries to withdraw.
According to LSEG, Taiwan hasn't imported Russian naphtha from the beginning of 2026. This compares with 2.7?million tonnes in 2025.
Shipping data showed that traders were avoiding Russian cargoes by sending tankers with a total of 180,000 tons of naphtha, among others, to the port of Mailiao, Taiwan.
India imported approximately 200,000 tons of Russian naphtha per month on average in the past year. However, its purchases have nearly halved since buyers say they will only accept cargoes from non-sanctioned parties.
According to LSEG, out of 'three cargoes' loaded in Russia's Baltic Ust-Luga Port in December, two -- with a total weight of around 100,000 tons -- have been discharged in India since early February. The third shipment, weighing 23,000 tons, is still awaiting discharge.
The U.S. president Donald Trump ordered in December a blockade of all sanctioned oil tanks entering or leaving Venezuela.
Venezuela uses naphtha as a diluter to make its heavy oil transportable.
LSEG data indicates that one tanker originally destined for Venezuela has drifted in the port awaiting orders. Another 60,000-ton shipment was redirected to Oman.
Shipping data indicates that as major buyers have withdrawn from Russian supplies traders are increasingly turning to STS?operations near Port-Said in Egypt as well as storage hubs located in Singapore,?Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, and Malaysia.
Market sources stated that barrels stored in storage can be blended with other products and sold to Asian?and African markets.
The traders also report an increase in the shipments of naphtha from Russian ports to Brazil, Togo and other countries, where it is mainly used as a gasoline blend, although some volumes are also stored and reexported.
(source: Reuters)