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South Bow plan for Keystone XL revival needs Trump's approval and US oil pipeline connections

The proposal by the Canadian company 'South Bow' to revive portions of the Keystone XL oil pipe, which was cancelled in 2010, could increase Canada’s crude exports into the?U.S. If it is given the green light by U.S. president Donald Trump, and additional links are built to U.S. refinery hubs, then Canada's crude exports could increase by more than 12 percent.

The new proposal includes a different route in the U.S. compared to the Keystone XL project, which was cancelled by former U.S. president?Joe?Biden after years of Indigenous opposition and environmental resistance.

South Bow, the company set up in 2024 by former Keystone XL promoter TC Energy to take over their oil pipeline business is looking at reviving a portion of line already built in Alberta. It already has all Canadian permits.

Canadian Prime Minister

Mark Carney raised the revival of the pipeline in a conversation he had with Trump in October. This could give him leverage for upcoming negotiations to renew the U.S. Mexico-Canada (USMCA).

Trump, whose tariff wars have caused tensions with Canada and his annexation threat has strained relations between the two countries, has repeatedly called on lower oil prices. Many U.S. refiners depend on Canada's roughly 4.4 millions barrels of exports each day that it sends south of border.

Bridger Pipeline is South Bow's possible U.S. partner. They recently submitted a proposal to Montana regulators. The proposal describes the construction of a 645 mile (1,038 km) pipeline capable of transporting 550,000 barrels per day. It would begin near the U.S. Canada border in Phillips County Montana and travel to Guernsey Wyoming.

Analysts say that Guernsey does not represent an end-market for crude oil. Therefore, additional links will be needed to transport the oil to refinery hubs like Cushing, Oklahoma, Patoka in Illinois, and U.S. Gulf Coast.

Matthew Lewis, the founder of Plainview Energy Analytics, believes that the most plausible configuration is a new pipeline that stretches 425 miles between Guernsey and Steele City in Nebraska. From there, oil could be moved into underutilized pipelines running towards Cushing, Patoka?and Wood River, Illinois. The oil would then be transported to underutilized pipelines that run towards Cushing, Patoka, and Wood River in Illinois.

However, it is unclear who would be willing to take the risk of that part of a project.

Lewis stated that the biggest challenges in this plan for a Guernsey to Steele City segment are obtaining permits and building a new pipeline, which would likely be subject to environmental litigation that would tie up such a large project in court.

South Bow stated that its proposal could connect with downstream pipelines in the U.S., but declined to provide further comment. Bridger Pipeline refused to comment.

Leveraging Existing Infrastructure

Bridger's application says that it will build the Montana to Guernsey leg at locations near existing pipeline infrastructure. This would make obtaining permits easier. Around 150 km of Keystone XL pipeline has already been built in Alberta and is sitting idle after the project was cancelled.

White House spokesperson refused to comment on South Bow-Bridger project, but analysts stated that a presidential permit was required for the segment crossing the U.S. Canada border. Richard?Masson is the former CEO of Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission. He said that even if the Trump Administration supports the plan, it's not guaranteed that the next U.S. government will.

He said that while the proposal is different from Keystone XL it is still a large-scale expansion of the pipeline and will likely 'attract the ire?of environmentalists, landowners, and indigenous communities.

Many pipeline projects have been halted or slowed down by litigation in the U.S. Trump and his team tried to speed up permits and cut regulations, but a project that spans multiple administrations would be politically risky.

It brings up the same issues. Masson stated that this was the same material for those who wanted Keystone XL to be cancelled.

COMPETITIVE EXPORT PIPELELINE EXPANSIONS

The proposed project is being developed at the same moment that the company that owns the Trans Mountain Pipeline from Alberta to Canada’s west coast, plans a series enhancements that will increase its capacity by up to 360,000 barrels per day.

Enbridge, South Bow's main competitor, has approved expansion projects for its Flanagan & Mainline pipelines. These will add a combined capacity of 250,000 bpd for Canadian heavy oil shipping companies moving crude to the U.S. Midwest & Gulf Coast.

Aaron MacNeil, analyst at TD Securities, says that these projects will be less complex and more cost-effective than South Bow’s proposal.

He said South Bow would face questions from investors regarding its ability to fund a new project, while maintaining its dividends and avoiding too much debt. (Reporting from Amanda Stephenson, Calgary; Additional reporting by Siddharth Cavale in New York; Valerie Volcovici and Georgina Mcartney in Washington; Editing and proofreading by Caroline Stauffer & Nia Williams).

(source: Reuters)