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Trump says no rush for Iran deal, US blockade stays
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he had told his representatives to not rush into any agreement with Iran. This appeared to dampen expectations of an imminent breakthrough for this three-month old war which were raised by both sides just a day before. Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. Blockade of?Iranian Ships in the Strait of Hormuz "would remain in full force until an?agreement was reached, certified and signed". He said that the negotiations were moving forward and that the U.S.-Iran relationship had become more professional. He added, "Both parties must take the time to get it right." "There can be no errors!" Trump had said a day earlier that Washington and Iran "largely" negotiated a memorandum of agreement on a deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz was used before the conflict for one-fifth of all global oil and LNG shipments. Trump has repeatedly emphasized the possibility of a deal to end the conflict that Israel and the U.S. started on February 28. It wasn't clear if the agreement to which he was referring on Sunday was a memorandum that had been discussed, or a more complex and difficult peace settlement likely to take longer. Both sides are at odds on a number of difficult issues. These include?Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and Tehran’s demands for lifting of sanctions and releasing tens or billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenue frozen abroad. Media in the U.S., Iran, and other countries reported that the memorandum laying out a framework for ending months-long fighting, if completed, would lift the U.S. ban on Iranian shipping, and reopen a waterway which Iran has closed with threats of attacking shipping. HOPE OF RELIEF FROM THE GLOBAL ENERGY CRISE A senior Iranian official told a reporter that the memorandum would be sent for final approval to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei if it was approved by Iran's Supreme Council of National Security. Iran's Tasnim News Agency said that disagreements remained on one or two clauses. Tasnim quoted a source who said that there would not be a final agreement if the U.S. continues to?create obstacles. A military adviser to Khamenei stated that Tehran has the legal right of managing the Strait of Hormuz. However, it is not clear whether this means continuing to choose which ships are allowed to pass through. A deal that would cement the fragile ceasefire in place today could bring some relief to the markets, but it wouldn't immediately solve a global energy shortage, which is driving up fuel, food, and fertilizer prices. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's head said last week that even if the conflict ends today, full flow through the Strait won't return until the first or second quarter in 2027. Iran's Revolutionary Guards reported that 33 vessels passed through the Strait in the last 24 hours, after receiving permission from Tehran. This is still far below the 140 vessels which would normally pass on a normal day before war. Trump has said that the U.S. attacked Iran in order to stop it acquiring nuclear weapons, despite his various war goals during the conflict. In his Sunday post, he emphasized that Iran "must know, however, they cannot develop or obtain a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb". Iran has denied for years that it was pursuing weapons of mass destruction. It says it has the right to enrich uranium, even though its purity is far greater than what's needed for electricity generation. IRAN: 'ISSUES NEED TO BE Discussed,' Sources say that the proposed framework, when it is implemented, will be in three phases: ending the war formally, resolving crisis in Strait of Hormuz, and opening a window of 30 days for negotiations to reach a wider agreement. This period can also be extended. Trump's approval ratings were hit by the impact of the war on U.S. energy prices. He announced on Friday that he wouldn't be attending his son's marriage this weekend. Trump cited Iran as one reason for staying in Washington. Axios reported that Trump spoke with leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on Saturday, encouraging them to accept the new framework. Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said that on Saturday "the trend in this week is towards a reduction of disputes but there are still?issues which need to be addressed through mediators". Baghaei said that while the U.S. blocking of Iran's shipping is important, the priority for the government was to end the threat of new U.S. strikes and the conflict in Lebanon. The U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran resulted in the deaths of thousands of Iranians before it was stopped by a ceasefire early in April. Israel has also killed and driven thousands of people from their homes in Lebanon. It invaded the country in pursuit of Iran-backed Hezbollah. The Iranian attacks on Israel and the Gulf neighbours have resulted in the deaths of dozens. (Additional reporting by Doina Chicu, Ariba Shhid, Hatem Mter, Andrew Mills and Elwely Elwelly; Writing by Kim Coghill and Kevin Liffey;)
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Bangladesh offers favourable terms for offshore energy tenders
Bangladesh has launched an international bid for oil and gas exploration in 26 offshore blocks?in the Bay of Bengal. It is offering more attractive terms to foreign companies to combat worsening domestic shortages of gas and to reduce its reliance on expensive LNG imports. South Asia has been facing declining gas reserves, increasing dependence on LNG imports, and energy prices that are vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. Petrobangla, a state-owned company, published the tender documents for the Bangladesh Offshore Model Production Sharing Contract 2026 on its website. The deadline to submit bids was November 30, 2018. Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood said at a press briefing that "we have made the terms attractive to encourage participation by international companies." The offshore tender is a part of government's plan to increase domestic supply and reduce import dependency. The revised PSC will require companies to relinquish 20% of their exploration acreage during the exploration phase. This is down from 50% in the past. The mandatory contributions to the workers’ welfare fund were also reduced from 5% to 1.5%. The revised terms are hoped to revive investor interest, after Bangladesh's last offshore licensing round held in March 2024 did not attract any bids despite the fact that several multinational companies purchased data packages. DEEP AND SHallow WATER BLOCKS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE TENDER It offers 15 blocks of deep water and?11 of shallow water in the Bay of Bengal. Petrobangla announced that a basic data package, including geological and other related information, would be available on June 1. To improve the commercial viability of gas prices, the government also revised its formula. Deepwater gas will now be 'linked to Brent crude oil instead of high-sulphur lubricant, allowing contractors up to 11 % of the Brent average price over a three-month period. After the 2024 round failed, a review found that foreign companies raised concerns about gas prices, pipeline construction costs and profits-sharing obligations. Bangladesh has not yet made a significant offshore gas discovery despite settling maritime boundary disputes in 2012 with India and Myanmar. India, Myanmar, and Pakistan, which are all neighbours, have increased their deepwater exploration in the last few years. Several major international companies, including ConocoPhillips, Santos, POSCO Daewoo, and ONGC, have explored offshore blocks in Bangladesh before abandoning the projects.
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Separatist militants claim responsibility for the explosion that killed at least 24 people in a Pakistani train
Officials said that a bomb explosion hit a shuttle train carrying Pakistani security staff and their families on Sunday in the southwest province of Balochistan. This was 'the latest major attack by separatist militants. According to three provincial officials and security officers who spoke under the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, the explosion caused at least 24 deaths and 70 injuries. At least 24 people were killed and more than 70 injured in this attack. It was part of a?series? of major attacks on security forces, infrastructure and trains in the mineral rich province bordering Iran and?Afghanistan. Pakistan launched counterinsurgency efforts after the most violent violence for years. Separatist militant group, Baloch Liberation Army, or BLA, claimed in a media statement that they carried out the attack, and called it a suicide explosion. Could not independently verify this claim. In a statement, Pakistan's Railways Ministry said that the shuttle train was transporting passengers from Quetta’s cantonment area to connect with the long-distance Jaffar Express train when the explosion struck near a rail track in the provincial capitol. The ministry reported that the explosion caused the engine to be derailed and three coaches to overturn, and two coaches were flipped. It added that the area had been cordoned off by security forces and that rescue operations were underway. An official in the security field said that an explosive-laden vehicle struck one of the train's bogies, which was located in a residential neighborhood. Some of those who died were residents from a nearby apartment complex. Images of the scene show burnt out vehicles, residential?buildings damaged, and twisted metal, debris, and debris scattered along the railway track. Smoke is rising from the wreckage. Shehbaz?Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, condemned a bomb blast he described as "heinous" on social media site X. He sent condolences to the families of the victims and said that the nation stood by the people in?Balochistan. BLA militants hijacked a Jaffar express train in March 2025 and took hundreds of hostages before a day-long standoff was ended by armed forces. The military said that 21 hostages were killed, along with four soldiers and all 33 attackers. In a 40-hour raid, Pakistani forces have killed 145 militants after coordinated attacks in Balochistan resulted in the deaths of nearly 50 people, according to provincial officials.
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Ukraine claims it has hit Russia's Sheskharis Oil Terminal on Black Sea
The Ukrainian military said that it had attacked the Sheskharis Oil Terminal in Russia, one of the largest on the Black Sea. It also struck the nearby Grushova oil depot. On Telegram, the Ukraine General Staff reported that the overnight attack caused a fire to break out at the Sheskharis Terminal. The general staff of Ukraine also reported that a tanker called Chrysalis had been hit in the Black Sea. In recent months, Ukraine has increased its number and size of strikes on Russian oil refineries and transportation facilities, in an effort to reduce Russia's revenue from oil and natural gas exports that it uses to fund?its war. Robert Brovdi said that in the first 23 of May, Ukrainian drones attacked 13 major Russian oil installations. Brovdi, a Russian oil refinery executive, said earlier this week that six of the 10 biggest oil refineries in Russia had stopped processing crude after the?Ukrainian attack. We could not independently verify the claims. CHEMICAL PLANT AND VESSELS UNDER ATTACK Zelenskiy had said earlier, on 'Saturday, that Ukrainian drones attacked a large Russian chemical plant, Metafrax Chemical in the Perm area that supplied products to Russia’s military complex. He claimed that the 'plant has stopped working after the attack. Brovdi, in a separate Telegram message, said that Ukrainian 'drones' attacked a Russian'military frigate' and a hovercraft missile boat near Novorossiysk Naval Base on Saturday morning. Brovdi said that the extent of damage was unknown. Reporting by Daniel Flynn, Pavel Polityuk and Tomaszjanowski.
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Boeing 737 MAX fraud case cleared by jury
A jury in the U.S. District Court of Seattle ruled that Boeing was not guilty of 'hiding safety issues with 737 -MAX jets purchased by LOT Polish Airlines in the last decade. LOT accused Boeing of fraud by 'withholding a crucial change to the popular single aisle?jets' flight-control system. The change was a result of 'two fatal 737 MAX crash in 2018 and 2019. These crashes led to the planes being grounded for 20 months. The airline claimed that the grounded aircraft caused damages of $153 million. The jury members deliberated for three hours after a two week trial. Boeing's spokesperson said, "We are pleased with the jury's decision today in our favor." LOT issued a statement recognizing the result but allowing for an appeal. The company stated that "as the legal 'process is not yet concluded, LOT won't comment on the.details.of.the proceeding" at this time. Reporting by Dan Catchpole, Seattle; Editing and proofreading by William Mallard
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Sources say that the Brazil Development Bank BNDES has sold its stakes in Axia Energia and Petrobras.
Four anonymous sources said that Brazil's BNDES, the state development bank, has sold shares in both Axia Energia and Petrobras this month. BNDES, through its subsidiary?BNDESPar, holds the majority of the equity portfolio. This includes Axia and Petrobras, as well as electric utility Copel and meatpacker JBS. According to one source, BNDESPar has sold Petrobras shares worth around 3 billion?reais (597.75 million dollars) and more than 500 millions reais of?Axia stock this month. This person said that the bank sold 280 million reais worth of Copel shares in May. The total sales for the energy company this year are 1.2 billion reais. BNDES didn't?immediately respond to a comment request. A BNDES source stated, "These stocks were trading at high levels and the bank saw the opportunity to make gains by selling them." Another source said that in the case of Petrobras, the shares purchased did not have voting rights. This means there was no impact on bank strategy and planning. Petrobras declined to comment on the?current negotiations', while Axia refused to comment. BNDES President 'Aloizio Mercadante' said?in September the bank had adopted a strategy of divesting from traditional and mature sectors to?support strategic sectors. However, it said that they did not intend to sell their stake in Petrobras. In March, BNDESPar acted in the capacity of anchor?investor for a capital increase by a number of companies within Simpar. These included truck rental -firm Vamos, Movida, a car rental firm, and JSL, a road logistics company.
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Senator calls on US to finalize regulations banning airline family seating fees
Democratic Senator Ed Markey on Saturday urged the U.S. Transportation Department to finalize rules that would prevent airlines from charging fees for seating families with young children together on a flight, if adjacent seats were available at time of booking. In August 2024, the DOT issued regulations under?former U.S. president Joe Biden after Congress ordered that it write regulations. Markey asked Transportation secretary Sean Duffy for action. Markey noted that the DOT had been unable to act for more than 18 months on this proposal, despite the fact that it was supported by JD Vance (now vice president), a former senator who has now joined the DOT. "Airlines shouldn't be able to force parents to decide between paying more or being separated from their children." Duffy's spokesperson did not comment immediately. Many major airlines have pledged to guarantee family seating at no additional charge. The DOT previously stated that all other large domestic airlines have policies that try to seat families together, but they do not 'guarantee' it. Airlines for America (which represents American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines Southwest Airlines and others) did not comment immediately. In 2024, the proposal will prohibit airlines from charging fees for assigning seats to children who sit next to parents on U.S. flight. If it is not possible to offer adjacent seating to multiple children, the airlines will be required to place them in an aisle seat, behind or in front of a parent. If adjacent family seats are not available, the DOT will?require free rebooking or refunds for passengers who choose to skip that flight. If airlines did not comply, they could be subject to civil penalties. Markey cited a variety of other actions taken by DOT in order to reverse Biden's?aviation consumers?rules. In January, DOT announced that it would review its guidance in order to reduce the emphasis on imposing civil penalties against airlines that violate consumer protection laws and?to eliminate Biden's policies that emphasized enforcement. USDOT reversed?some penalties on airlines under the Biden administration in December. This included waiving $11 million from a fine that was imposed by Southwest as part of a $140-million settlement for?operational issues that left more than 2,000,000?passengers stranded in 2022. In November, the DOT retracted a proposal that was issued under Biden and sought to force airlines to compensate passengers in cash when they are responsible for U.S. flights being disrupted. (Reporting and Editing by Franklin Paul, Aurora Ellis and David Shepardson)
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The EU should phase out the low-value package tax rules, say logistics giants
DHL, FedEx, and UPS called on 'European Union Finance Ministers' to implement new?duty regulations on?low value packages? on Friday. They warned of supply chain bottlenecks, and the impact this would have on some medical supplies. These rules are part of an effort to crackdown on cheap Chinese imports, such as those from online retailers Shein or Temu. In a letter dated 22 May, seen by the, three companies said the EU should implement a EUR3 flat rate duty on July 1 but defer "more complicated and unresolved" elements until they were?legally sure and 'operationally viable. The new data requirements, along with other changes mandated by the new rules, resulted in an amount of complexity which could not realistically be implemented before the deadline of July 1. In a letter, Mike Parra, CEO DHL Express Europe and Wouter Roels president of FedEx Europe and Daniel Carrera president of UPS EMEA said that they saw a "real" risk of shipments getting held up at EU border "without a stable and working legal framework". They wrote: "Such disruptions could affect the availability of medical supplies, delay industrial production and create bottlenecks across European supply chains. All?risks which are especially significant in today's geopolitical environment." (Reporting and writing by Tom Sims; Editing by Louise Heavens, Alexander Smith, and Louise Heavens)
The commodities supercycle has arrived. How can investors get involved? : Taosha Wang
Commodities supercycles have the power to reshape market trends for many years, even decades. We appear to be back in one, as the Iran War has amplified a number of long-term bullish tendencies. Many investors are now asking how to engage in the supercycle, rather than whether they should. Oil recorded its biggest monthly gain ever following the U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran in February. Add to that the substantial gains in copper and gold since mid-2025, and the race to find energy, metals, and minerals to fuel the artificial-intelligence arms race. A commodities supercycle is underway.
Commodities supercycles are long, powerful waves that are driven by major structural changes. Think of the oil booms of 1970s or the urbanisation boom of China in the early 2000s.
How can investors participate?
Commodities tend to be treated as one asset class. However, a bullish market does not always occur in the same way across all of them. Leadership tends to change. Rotation within an asset class is as important as the overall direction.
As an example, while a geopolitical event may immediately lift the oil price, copper and gold prices may fall or even lag as investors reduce their crowded positions, or reassess risks to growth.
In 2022, energy prices spiked following Russia's invasion in Ukraine. Meanwhile, some industrial metals fell as concerns about recession grew.
We're seeing such divergence again today.
After the Iran War began, oil prices soared by 64% as energy supplies were squeezed. This acted as a hedge for portfolios against volatility in equity markets. Gold fell by 12% in March, its worst month since 2008. This was largely due to the fact that it had been inflated for months by heavy speculative purchases and was among the few liquid assets that investors could sell when margin calls were made.
What are the most important things that investors need to keep in mind when they're considering riding the latest commodity waves?
Small Pool, Big Waves
Investors should first remember that even small changes in the allocation of commodities can have a "massive" impact on prices.
Commodities play a huge role in the real economy but are not as important for investors as stocks and bonds. Energy and materials account for less than 6% of S&P 500 compared to more than 30% in the case of the "Magnificent 7" tech giants.
The price is determined by the margin. Even if a small amount of capital is moved from broad equities and bonds to commodities, whether via physical exposure or listed options, the price impact could be significant. A small market will only absorb so much new capital before prices adjust.
Another key issue is interconnectedness: the movement of one commodity can change the outlook for other commodities.
Many commodities are interconnected through the potential substitution of demand or as raw materials. High natural gas prices, for example, can increase oil consumption. Increasing energy costs affect the price of food, fuel and fertiliser. In some industrial applications, copper and aluminium are interchangeable.
Inventories are another factor to consider. While firms may value cost-efficiency in a situation where supply is not constrained, geopolitical events can lead to a shift towards higher inventories.
Iran is a good example. The ability of Tehran to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is a choke point for energy and other goods, has highlighted how vulnerable these products are.
In the future, both governments and businesses will likely place a higher priority on the security of supply for many goods. This will lead to a greater stock of strategic materials. This could lead to a structural premium for the entire complex.
STOCKS OR BARRELS?
Next, you will need to decide whether or not you want to own the commodities themselves or related equities.
Commodity-related stocks are affected by many factors. These include the hedging policies of each company, their capital allocation decisions and pipelines of projects, as well as their position within the commodity value chain.
Take the energy industry. Consider the energy industry.
Not all producers upstream benefit in the same way, of course.
The U.S. has not suffered any direct damage during the current conflict. Due to their different geological profiles and production techniques, these producers have greater flexibility in adjusting the rate of production.
Many U.S. companies were also well-adapted to the price regime that existed before the Iran war, which was roughly $70 a barrel. This allowed them to generate a healthy cash flow. The windfall at current prices could be significant.
Energy companies, no matter where in the world they are located, also have their own unique?risks relating to management, debt, long-term strategy concerns, and other issues. These issues do not need to be considered when investing directly in commodities.
Positive Convexity
Investors should also not overlook the positive convexity of commodity return profiles. The price upside is usually much greater than the downside.
The physical nature of commodities and their direct link to the productive activities necessary to keep an economy humming are at the root of this.
Investors can short sell or delay the purchase of financial assets when they rise in price.
It is rare that the same logic applies to tangible commodities where it's difficult to delay or reduce consumption quickly. Prices may increase and eventually cause demand destruction, but not quickly enough to avoid a sudden squeeze.
This asymmetry can be one of the reasons commodity cycles can become more powerful than investors expected once they have taken hold. Understanding this can make the difference between being in a good position for a commodity cycle or being run over by one.
The views expressed are the author's. Taosha is the portfolio manager at Fidelity and creator of "Thematically thinking" newsletter. This column is a favorite of yours? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)