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As US-Iran talks fail, major Gulf markets are affected.
The majority of major Gulf stock markets fell on Monday morning after Washington announced that it would block traffic into and out of Iranian ports, following weekend talks which?failed? to reach an agreement to end the conflict. The U.S. action, which is aimed at increasing pressure on Iran leaves a fragile truce in the balance. U.S. Central Command announced that U.S. Forces would begin blocking all maritime traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports as early as 10 am. ET (1400 GMT), on Monday. Dubai's main share index fell 1.8%. This was due to a drop of 3.2% in the top lender Emirates NBD and a decrease of 2.9% in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties. Air Arabia, a budget airline, fell 3.3% among other stocks. Aldar Properties fell 1.9% in Abu Dhabi while Abu Dhabi Ship Building dropped?3.2%. In choppy trading, the Qatari index fell 0.3%, mainly due to a drop of 1.3% in Qatar National Bank, the Gulf's largest lender in terms of assets. Qatar Gas Transport, a maritime transport company, fell by 0.6%. The benchmark index for Saudi Arabia, which is insulated from the region's disruption due to its ability reroute oil exports, edged up 0.1%. This was helped by an increase of 0.7% in the oil giant?Saudi Aramco. Brent crude futures are up 7.3% to $102 per barrel. This is a gain of?more? than 40% since the war interrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia announced on Sunday that it had restored the East-West Pipeline to its full capacity of 'about 7 million barrels a day. This comes days after assessing damages to energy infrastructure caused by attacks during 'the Iran conflict. An analysis showed that the kingdom had also benefitted from higher oil prices. Estimated March oil revenues were up year-on-year. The Egyptian stock exchange was closed on a holiday.
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German coalition announces fuel prices relief of $1.9 billion
Germany's ruling coalition announced on Monday a?1.6 billion euro ($1.9 bn) fuel price relief for consumers and business,?following an increase in oil prices due to?the Iran war. A joint statement by the CDU and their centre-left SPD coalition partner said that energy taxes on petrol and diesel would be cut by 0.17 euros for a two-month period. The Iran War has forced countries, including Germany, to deal with the 'biggest ever disruption of?global energy supply. A planned U.S. Blockade against Iranian ports and coastal regions is also driving up crude oil prices. At a press briefing on Monday, Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that the coalition is doing all it can to 'address problems caused by Iran - war, which has been 'put on hold in the meantime, as part of a fragile ceasefire agreement. The coalition partners have also agreed to allow companies to give employees a?relief?bonus of 1,000 euros, free from payroll taxes and social security charges.
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India's largest solar state is awaiting transmission lines for 60 GW of renewable energy projects
A regulatory filing revealed that India's leading solar energy generating state, Rajasthan, has clean energy projects with a capacity of about 60 gigawatts (GW) waiting for transmission links. Planners are struggling to keep up?with the rapid build-out. This problem highlights a major challenge for India as it aims to double its non-fossil-based power generation by 2030 to 500 GW. The systems transport electricity from renewable-rich areas such as Rajasthan to other states. The planner, Central Transmission Utility of India Ltd (CTUIL), informed the national regulator that it was unable to provide transmission systems for 60 GW worth of projects. According to the filing dated April 10, the western desert state has a 179 GW renewable energy potential. More than 85% of these projects are concentrated in four districts: Barmer, Bikaner Jaisalmer, and Jodhpur. Rajasthan has received applications for grid connectivity of about 130 GW, but only 73 GW transmission systems have been planned or are currently being built, the report said. The planner stated that "CTUIL faces challenges and difficulties in identifying a corresponding transmission system? for 60 GW applications". After electricity regulators told Saurya Urja Company of Rajasthan Ltd that it could withdraw their connectivity application, and recover bank guarantees, if necessary, the issue was brought to light. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission's (CERC) ruling came?in response? to the challenges the company faced in?planning its transmission. The regulator also asked that the transmission planner inform project applicants of the transmission delays so they can withdraw their connectivity applications. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Sethuraman N.R.)
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Poland's Premier hails Hungary election as a blow to authoritarian regime
Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, said on Monday that Hungary's elections show that Europe is not destined to authoritarian rule. The center-right party, 'Tisza', ended Viktor Orban 16 years of power. Tusk, while on a state visit to South Korea according to the Polish state owned news agency PAP, said: "Everyone was concerned about a tendency towards authoritarian and corrupt regimes." It's not true. First Warsaw, Bucharest, Chisinau and now Budapest. The centrist Nicusor Dan won the presidential elections in Romania, and Moldova's proeuropean ruling party won an resounding win over its Russia-aligned opponent. Tusk had repeatedly criticised?Orban’s government for their close ties to Moscow. After many years of power, Victor Orban’s government unfortunately became corrupt and authoritarian. Poland and Hungary, neighbors, are connected by their 'long, shared history', a close trading relationship and a?cooperation with the European Union and NATO. Tusk stated that he spoke with Tisza leader Peter Magyar and congratulated him on his victory. Tusk stated, "We briefly discussed the visit to Warsaw." "You?know that he chose Warsaw for obvious reasons as his first trip. I believe our relationship will be exceptional." (Reporting and editing by Pawel Flikiwicz)
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UAE markets fall as US-Iran talks fail
The stock markets of the United Arab Emirates fell in early trading on Monday after Washington announced a blockade against?traffic into and out of Iranian ports, following the failure of a weekend 'talks' with Tehran to reach a settlement to the conflict. The talks in Islamabad were the first direct U.S. - Iranian meeting in over a decade. They followed a six-week ceasefire that saw thousands of people killed, energy supplies disrupted, and fears of a larger regional conflict heightened. The U.S. Central Command announced that the blockade will begin at 10 am ET (1400 GMT). ET (1400 GMT) will cover 'all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas of the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Gulf of Oman. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz between non-Iranian and Iranian ports is exempted. Trump said U.S. Forces would intercept vessels in international water that had?paid a toll for Iran. Dubai's main stock index fell 1.8%. This was due to a 3.2% drop in the top lender Emirates NBD, and a 2.9% decline in the blue-chip developer Emaar Properties. Air Arabia, a budget airline, has fallen?3,3% among other stocks. Aldar Properties, Abu Dhabi Ship Building and Aldar Properties all saw a decline of?1% in Abu Dhabi. Brent crude futures were up 7.3% to $102 per barrel, and have gained more than 40% in the time since the war closed the navigation of the Strait.
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Slovakia's Fico is ready to work with Hungary's newly appointed prime minister
Robert Fico, the Slovak prime minister, congratulated Peter Magyar on his election as the new leader of Hungary, and offered "intensive?cooperation". He also expressed gratitude to Viktor Orban, who is leaving office after a shocking result in an important election. Fico, who was a key ally and had backed Orban's candidacy before the voting began, said that Slovakia was prepared for close ties, with joint action to protect energy interests as a priority. After 16 years of power, Orban's veteran nationalist party lost its majority in the Sunday election. The Magyar Party and his upstart centre-right Tisza won a comfortable number of seats in Parliament. Fico made a statement saying, "I take full respect to the decision taken by the citizens of Hungary... and I am ready for an intensive collaboration with the new Hungarian Prime Minister, whom I congratulated on the result of the election." Fico returned to office in 2023 and Slovakia was a close ally with Hungary. Both neighbours maintained warm relations with Moscow and opposed European Union sanctions, while continuing to purchase Russian oil and natural gas. Both parties have tried to restore Russian oil flow through the Druzhba Pipeline, which has not been in operation since late January due to damage in Ukraine caused by what Kyiv claims was a Russian attack. Fico stated that he believes?Slovakia and Hungary, as well as central Europe, are still interested in the resumption of?its operation. He added?that the government's goal to protect energy interests with Hungary remains unchanged. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced last week that pipeline repairs will be completed in the spring. Fico and Orban's relations with Zelenskiy have been tense despite Russia invading Ukraine in 2022. Fico, in a separate Facebook statement, said that Slovak-Hungarian ties?had never been so high. He praised Orban's exemplary cooperation, protection of sovereignty, and national interest. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez in Prague, with Jason Hovet reporting from Prague)
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Oil prices jump 8% above $100 in anticipation of US blockade of Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices jumped over $100 a barrel Monday as the U.S. Navy?prepared a?blockade of the Strait?of Hormuz which could restrict Iranian oil?shipments?after?the U.S. Brent crude futures were up $7.60 or 7.98% to $102.80 per barrel at 2310 GMT, after closing 0.75% lower Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate reached $104.88 per barrel, an increase of $8.31 or 8.61% after a loss of 1.33% in the previous session. The market has returned to its pre-ceasefire conditions, with the exception that the U.S. is blocking the remaining Iranian-linked flows of up to 2,000,000 barrels of oil per day through the Strait of?Hormuz, said Saul Kavonic. He is the head of MST Marquee's energy research. Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. Navy would begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major step after the marathon talks between Iran and the U.S. failed to produce a peace agreement, putting at risk a fragile two-week ceasefire. He said that oil and gasoline prices may continue to rise through the midterm elections in November, "a rare acknowledgment of the possible 'political fallout" from his decision six weeks earlier to attack Iran. The U.S. Central Command announced that U.S. Forces would begin blocking all maritime traffic into and out of Iranian ports as early as 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT), on Monday. In a recent note, ANZ analysts 'Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes' said that the move would not only restrict the exports of Persian Gulf oil producers but also Iran's capability to export oil. This will exacerbate supply disruptions on the market. IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that the move would effectively choke-off the flow of Iranian crude oil, forcing Tehran’s allies to apply the necessary pressure in order to reopen the waterway. Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced on Sunday that any military vessel attempting to "approach" the Strait of Hormuz will be considered as a violation of two-week U.S. truce and dealt with harshly. Shipping data revealed that despite the deadlock, three supertankers,?fully loaded with oil, passed through the Strait of Hormuz Saturday. They appeared to be first vessels to leave the Gulf after the ceasefire agreement was reached last week. Shipping data from LSEG showed that no other ships were spotted 'in the strait Monday, except for an 'Iran-flagged vessel anchored in the area. Saudi Arabia announced on Sunday that it had restored the full capacity of the East-West oil pipeline to approximately 7 million barrels per days, just days after assessing the damage caused to its energy sector by attacks during the Iran Conflict.
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CME approves the storage of aluminium and lead in Hong Kong
CME Group, the U.S. commodities trading exchange, has approved its first base metal storage facility in Hong Kong. This is a move to expand its warehousing footprint in Asia. CME said in a Friday statement that it had approved GKE Metal Logistics’ application to store aluminium, lead and deliverables against Comex aluminium futures and lead 'futures' in the Chinese Special Administrative Region. The statement stated that the GKE site has a storage capacity of 6,500 metric tonnes for both aluminium and lead. In 'February, it was reported that the CME would?approve the storage facilities in Hong Kong and Taiwan in order to gain more traction for its aluminium contract in Asia, which is the largest regional market for this metal. Later that month, the Taiwan?sites?were approved. London Metal Exchange, a rival of CME, approved its first warehouses at Hong Kong nearly a year ago. CME announced in a separate announcement that it had approved the application of a UK-based warehouse firm Henry Bath to store aluminum in Hong Kong. The outdoor storage capacity at this location has been approved as?4,500 tonnes. CME has Asia base metals storage in Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese; Tom Daly)
Bousso: Iran's Hormuz bet ushers in an edgy new normal for Gulf oil.
The Iran War and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has shattered the status quo among Middle East oil producers that had existed for decades. Even if the current, fragile ceasefire lasts, the uneasy, "new normal" will likely lead to another round of conflict.
Tehran has now "demonstrated its ability and its willingness to strike critical infrastructure in the region and seal off the crucial waterway, changing the risk calculation for its neighbors and jeopardizing the long-term oil and gas strategies of Gulf countries.
The six-week conflict exposed deep tensions among?the Islamic Republic's key regional neighbors Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq,?all close U.S. ally. The United States and its allies had avoided direct confrontations with Tehran for years, largely because they believed that a war would be devastating to their economic interests. This entente cordiale is now shattered.
The Strait of Hormuz is at the core of the crisis. Iran shut down the waterway, the first time ever in history. This trapped nearly a fifth the world's supply of oil and gas inside the Gulf. It was a massive shock for the region and global economy. Even if the shipping eventually resumes, this unprecedented act marks an historic rupture.
Iran has indicated that it would like to maintain control over the Strait in any future peace agreement. It has floated the idea of charging vessels a fee for transit and controlling traffic. U.S. president Donald Trump has urged Tehran fully to reopen this waterway and said on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will immediately begin blocking the strait. This is a major step after marathon talks failed to bring an end to the war.
Even a formal reopening wouldn't erase the lessons the war taught Iran's neighbors. The threat of Iran closing strait, which has been proven to be feasible with minimal military effort, is a genie who cannot be re-opened.
No Way Out
The war has exposed the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure in this region.
The fighting between the U.S. and Israel, and Iran, quickly spilled over borders, as Iranian drones and missiles attacked dozens of targets across neighbouring countries. These included major oil and gas installations across the Gulf.
Refineries, export terminals, and other critical installations were severely damaged. Around 11 million barrels of oil per day and Qatar's total LNG production were shut down.
Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest crude?exporter, and the de facto leader of OPEC. The implications for Saudi Arabia are particularly troubling. Even the alternative route that it painstakingly developed to bypass Hormuz in recent years proved vulnerable.
Within hours of the U.S.-Iran truce announcement, the East-West Pipeline of the Kingdom, which was designed to divert approximately 7 million barrels of oil per day?from eastern oil heartland into the Red Sea Port of?Yanbu?, was struck.
Saudi Arabia, who exported 8 million barrels per day of oil prior to the war, reported that the attacks reduced its oil production by 600,000 barrels per day and the throughput along the East-West Pipeline was reduced by 700,000 barrels per day.
The UAE's oil pipeline that exports to Fujairah (which is outside the strait) was also repeatedly struck. For Qatar and Kuwait the strait is still the only export route.
This situation may look like a win for Tehran but the Gulf will likely see it as a status quo which is intolerable and must be changed.
BLOWN UP STRATEGIES
This new reality is a threat to the Gulf's economy, both today and tomorrow.
Even if energy prices are higher due to the geopolitical risks, the region will face years of reconstruction.
The threat to the long-term is greater.
The war has forced many countries, particularly those in Asia, to reassess their dependence on energy imports. This is a bad thing for the Gulf. Producers were already under pressure to maximize exports as demand could be decreasing due to the shift of major importers away from fossil fuels. Conflict will only intensify.
Uncertainty over Hormuz, both geopolitically and economically, is unsustainable for?Gulf Producers who expect to receive uninterrupted oil, liquefied gas, refined products including chemicals, fertilizer, and refined products to finance their economies in the coming decades.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two regional powerhouses with international geopolitical and economic ambitions, are unlikely to accept a strategic reality that would limit their long-term goals. This, in turn indicates a higher risk of a future confrontation.
"The Strait must remain open, fully, unconditionally, and without restrictions. It is essential for global economic stability and energy security. It is unacceptable to weaponize this important waterway in any way. Sultan Al Jaber said that last week. He was the CEO of UAE's state oil giant ADNOC.
No Going Back
It doesn't matter what "permanent peace" deal the parties agree on, but that they have broken a longstanding taboo by attacking the Gulf's vital economic infrastructure.
This shift in power alone will make the Middle East more volatile for many years.
Investors believe that the Middle East is soon going to return to normal business.
They are almost certainly wrong. It is unlikely that the old order will be restored, but rather a new normal in which Gulf countries seek to prevent Iran from ever again using the Hormuz trump.
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(source: Reuters)