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Bousso: Iran's 'tollbooth' at Hormuz will hardwire higher energy costs

For now, the war that shut down the Strait of Hormuz is over. Tehran's insistence on acting as the toll booth keeper at this world-critical oil chokepoint may leave energy markets exposed and lead to higher prices for many years. According to U.S. president Donald Trump, the U.S., Iran and Pakistan agreed on Tuesday to a ceasefire for two weeks, mediated by Pakistan. Tehran must halt its blockade against oil and gas traffic in the Strait. According to an Iranian official, the waterway through which a fifth (21 miles) of the world's oil and natural gas passed before the U.S./Israeli war began on Iran six weeks ago could be reopened in a limited way by Friday under Iranian control. Tehran also said on Tuesday that it would charge ships passing through the strait a fee under a permanent deal. The strait is only 34 km wide (21 miles) at its narrowest part between Iran and Oman.

Some media reports suggest that Oman is strongly opposing any such toll system under the existing agreements. Others claim that a similar toll system already exists.

In an interview with ABC News, Trump stated that the U.S. also considered setting up a joint-venture to charge ships tolls to access Hormuz. It is unclear how such a plan would work in practice. Iran could have the upper hand. Tehran has shown that it can strike dozens vessels with drones, sea mines and missiles. This gives them a powerful advantage even without a formal ban.

A toll system in Iran would violate one of the most fundamental principles of international law, namely?freedoms of navigation'. This principle allows ships to transit international waters free of interference by coastal states. The United States has always positioned itself as the global guardian of this principle. It enforces it with naval patrols and through diplomatic pressure.

Washington would be forced to make a major strategic shift if it allowed Iran to control the Hormuz Strait. This would also cause a shock to the Middle East's oil and gas industry, which is the lifeline for countries like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

This would create a layer of permanent political risk, both for Gulf producers and customers. Tehran would have disproportionate control over which ships could transit at what time. Iran could, for example, outright ban Israeli-owned ships, slow Saudi shipments in order to exert pressure on Riyadh or use delays as a leverage in unrelated disputes.

Tehran's power over the region's most important trade artery would be deeply unwelcome to its leading exporters, who are all close U.S. allys that have suffered heavy economic and infrastructure damages during Iranian attacks. The implications for Asian buyers would be serious. China, Japan and South Korea rely heavily upon Gulf supplies. Even modest and unpredictable disruptions could have a significant impact on the refining margins and spot prices of liquefied gas and inflation expectations.

It is unclear how much damage will be caused by the transit of vessels from Iran to friendly nations like China, India, Iraq, and Pakistan.

RISKIER COSTS

The toll could be significant financially. According to reports, the toll could cost as much as $2 million for each transit. This is roughly equivalent to the cost of chartering an extremely large crude carrier to travel from the Middle East all the way to China in 2025.

In addition to the death toll, increased security risks will increase insurance premiums for LNG carriers and tankers entering the Gulf. This will further drive up transportation costs. The war-risk premiums, which were volatile even before the conflict, are likely to persist as a structural characteristic of the market.

Some ships could try to follow the coastline of Oman while transiting Hormuz. This would reduce the overall traffic volume and still expose ships to Iranian missiles, drones, and fast-attack craft.

ALTERNATIVE ROUTES OF EXPORT These risks, combined with the uncertainty surrounding relations with Iran, will likely lead Saudi Arabia and UAE to continue using alternative oil export routes that were used during the conflict for months, if they are not years.

Saudi Aramco, the state oil giant, began pumping large quantities of crude oil through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea Port of Yanbu soon after the war started on February 28. This was done in accordance with contingency plans that were developed for just such a crisis.

The pipeline is capable of transporting 7 million barrels a day. Of this, 5 million barrels a day are exported, and the remainder feeds domestic refineries. Kpler data shows that Saudi Arabia exported an average of 3.3 million barrels per day from its west coast ports in March. This is nearly half the volume it will export by 2025. Even these alternatives are vulnerable. An industry source said that the East-West pipeline had been hit by an Iranian attack just hours after ceasefire announcement. Flows were expected to be affected.

The UAE also diverted additional volumes via its pipeline to Fujairah's oil terminal outside of the Gulf. Kpler reports that exports from Fujairah increased to 1.6m bpd from averaging 1.1m bpd since 2025. These routes are essential for producers and buyers to hedge against the Hormuz threat, but they do not offer a full solution due to their limited capacity and vulnerability to regional tensions. The mere possibility of Iranian oversight is already changing risk perceptions, even if the full toll system never comes into existence. Saudi Arabia, its allies and Iran would resist any attempt to give Tehran control of the Strait. While the ceasefire is holding, for Gulf oil exporters and gas producers, the battle for Hormuz has just begun. Ron Bousso is a columnist at.

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(source: Reuters)