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HSBC expects UAE's exit to have a limited impact on OPEC+ in the near term

HSBC stated in a research note published on Tuesday that the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC, and the wider OPEC+ coalition from?May 20, 2026 will have a limited impact?on the oil markets. However, it could weaken OPEC's ability to manage prices and supply over time.

The?UAE?,?one OPEC+'s biggest producers?, announced on Tuesday that it would be leaving both OPEC+ and OPEC, dealing a major blow to the producer's group, as the U.S./Israeli war against Iran disrupts the energy flow.

HSBC predicts that global oil supplies will remain stable in the short term as disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz have effectively closed it since late February.

The bank stated that?any increase of UAE production is limited while shipping access remains restrictive. The bank said that the Abu 'Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline which bypasses Hormuz and transports crude to Fujairah has a capacity of up to 1.8 million barrels a day. It is probably already at or near full utilization.

HSBC stated that once access to the Hormuz is restored, the UAE won't be bound by OPEC+ quotas, and can gradually increase output. The bank estimates Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's production could reach more than 4.5 millions barrels per day compared to an OPEC+ quota for May 2026 of approximately 3.4 million bpd.

The bank said that any increase in the supply of oil is expected to be phased-in over 12 to 18 months, rather than delivered instantly. This is in line with ADNOC’s stated intention to gradually raise production and to adapt to market and demand conditions. The bank stated that additional?UAE barrels will help to'rebuild global oil inventories following recent draws.

HSBC stated that the long-term impact of the loss of a key?Gulf Member could be detrimental to OPEC+'s cohesion, credibility and supply management. The UAE's growing production capacity, long-term investments, and $150 billion program until 2030 suggest an intention to monetise the reserves with less output constraints.

Loss of UAE participation may also increase the risk that other members will not adhere to their obligations. HSBC stated that if collective discipline is weakened, OPEC+ could struggle to manage the price during periods of softer demands or increasing non-OPEC supplies. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio in Bengaluru, Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)

(source: Reuters)