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Fertilizer shipments start leaving through the Hormuz Strait

Data showed that after an interim agreement to end the Iran War, the Fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz began to increase. Analysts say, however, it will be some time before they return to their pre-conflict level and bring relief to the market.

Before the U.S. launched their war with Israel on February 28, a third or more of the global urea trade -- the most commonly used fertiliser in the world -- and almost half of the seaborne sulphur -- a critical input -- typically passed through the strait.

But the near-closure of the crucial waterway during most of the war sharply reduced the shipments.

According to Argus's latest analysis, since Washington and Tehran announced the agreement on June 15, 640,000 metric tonnes of sulphur, which is critical for the production of fertilisers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), have left the strait. They are now headed for destinations like Indonesia, Morocco and Tanzania, and China. This compares with a total of 80,000 tons during the three-and-a half month war.

The latest data from CRU consultants showed that 427,000 tons (instead of 275,000) of urea have transited the Strait since the interim agreement, as compared to 275,000 tons during World War II.

After the deal, shipments of key fertilisers such as phosphates have increased. Ammonia is also a fertiliser input.

FOOD CRISIS FEARS EASE BUT NOT AS USUAL

Fertiliser costs spiked during the war, causing farmers to use less product on their crops. The prolonged closure of the Strait raised fears that it could reduce crop yields and cause a global food crisis.

Over 500 ships are currently stranded on the Gulf. While traffic has increased this week, the number of ships is still a small fraction of the 125 per day average that used to transit the waterway prior to the war.

"The trickling flows through the Strait are a great relief. The majority of the people will still be against the old sales. "They're not going provide new tonnages on the market," said Sarah Marlow. She is head of fertiliser prices at Argus.

Marlow stated that while bulk carriers are slowly leaving the Strait, empty carriers are not returning to the area to pick up new cargoes. Traders are also striking few new fertiliser deals in the region.

Analysts say that before carriers can return, they must remove many obstructions related to war. Analysts say that the waterway must be successfully demined. Shippers must feel confident about sailing in again, as well as the current vessel backlog.

The interim U.S. Iran deal must also lead to a 'permanent truce.

However, the U.N. International Maritime Organization had to pause their operation escorting vessels through the strait after a vessel reported a threat, raising new concerns about whether the agreement will hold.

Best-Case Scenario

Willis Thomas said that the volume of fertilisers through the Strait will not be back to pre-conflict level for some time. Even in the best-case scenario, August will be the earliest that we see an increase in traffic.

According to CRU there are around 600,000 tonnes of urea still stuck in the strait. Argus estimates that 300,000-400,000 tons of sulphur await exit from the waterway.

During the war,?facilities for fertiliser production in the Gulf also suffered damage and must be?repaired. Although experts claim the damage to be relatively small, it will slow down the rate that fertiliser prices can deflate.

BIMCO, a shipping association, said that the Gulf Fertilizer Production could recover to a large extent.

However, the exports of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates may remain below the pre-war level (in the short term) due to damage caused by the gas fields and refineries.

(source: Reuters)