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Maguire: Germany's weak wind output will continue into 2026.

Germany, Europe's biggest wind power producer, has been suffering from subpar wind energy production for years due to wind speeds below average at the turbine level.

The total German wind-powered energy output dropped by around 4% in 2025 compared to the previous year. This followed an annual growth of less than 1% in 2024.

Recent forecasts by LSEG for wind power production indicate that generation levels will be below the long-term median throughout the first quarter this year.

The first quarter of the year is traditionally when Germany's production of wind peaks. Therefore, if the projected output continues to be below par, it will strain the national utilities who must make up any shortfalls in wind generation with increased power from other sources.

LONG STRETCH

According to the think tank Ember's estimates, total wind-powered energy production in 2025 will be around 131 Terawatt Hours (TWh). This compares with annual outputs of 136.2 terawatts in 2024, and 135.2 terawatts in 2023.

Monthly, the wind output was below that of the previous year for the first four months in 2025 and again?in December.

The German wind power capacity increased by the most in 2017 despite this underperformance.

According to Germany's Federal Network Agency, the total wind power capacity in Germany will increase by approximately 4.9 gigawatts to 77.7GW in 2025.

The German power system has also upgraded its existing wind power fleet in order to increase the generation of each wind farm. Older turbine blades have been replaced with larger and more efficient ones throughout the country.

In the early part of 2026, the German wind network will again be affected by slow wind speeds.

According to the German Meteorological Service (DMS), the average wind speed at the turbine level was below?5.5 m/s (12.3 miles/hour) during the first quarter 2025. This was the lowest reading in over 50 years.

According to the weather service PredictWind, so far in 2026 wind speeds at major wind farm sites average between 4 and 5.5 meters per seconds. This is below the long-term average between 6 and seven meters per sec.

The Earth's Poles are experiencing higher temperatures than the average global temperature. This is reducing pressure differences between Central Europe, the Arctic and other parts of the world. It also results in less windy weather for long periods.

BALANCING ACT

Since 2023, wind farms are Germany's largest source of electricity. Therefore, sustained periods of lower-than-expected production have ripple effects on its entire power network.

Data from Ember show that in 2025, to make up for wind output declines and a 19% drop year-over-year in hydropower generation, utilities will increase gas-fired production by almost 6%, the highest level since 2021.

In 2026, after a near 40% increase in regional natural-gas prices this year alone, utilities will probably turn to more affordable generation sources to make up for system shortages.

Data from LSEG show that coal-fired power plants are most likely to be the source of replacement energy. In fact, so far in 2026, generation levels have increased slightly compared with?the same time period in 2025.

Nevertheless, sustained periods of increased coal-fired power generation will result in an increase in emissions in the power sector.

Ember data indicates that Germany's coal-fired plants emit approximately 1 million metric tonnes of?carbon dioxide per terawatt hours of electricity. This compares to about 460,000 tons for gas plants.

Even a three-month period of increased coal-fired production could cause a significant increase in the level of power pollution, undermining ongoing efforts to clean up the energy sector.

As Germany's electricity consumption peaks early in the year, due to the higher heating requirements, it is likely that the fossil fuel power stations will continue to produce at a high level for the next few months.

Wind speeds would have to increase in order for utilities to receive more wind power and allow the power grids reduce their output from fossil fuel plants.

For the moment, however, there are few brisk wind gusts, which means that one of the largest networks of wind power in the world is a burden, rather than an asset, to Germany's energy system.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)