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Forget AI. Maguire: The bigger problem in the power sector is keeping cool.

In the developed world, utilities are struggling to meet demand from data centres. Globally, however, the challenge of keeping people cool will be a greater drain on power grids.

Data centres and air conditioners will both triple their electricity consumption over the next decade. This will put utilities under severe strain, already struggling with aging grids, and long backlogs of new supply.

According to the International Energy Agency, data centre electricity consumption is expected to increase by 800 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2035 from 416 TWh around 2024.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, this is enough electricity to power 75 million American households for an entire year. The global demand for cooling systems is expected to increase by 1,200 TWh in 2035. That's nearly as much energy as the Middle East consumes each year, according to data from thinkthank Ember.

The location of the demand spike and the consequences of not meeting this spike also differ significantly between the drivers.

The majority of data centres are expected to expand in developed economies that have modern power networks. Demand will increase primarily due to the processing of search requests from businesses and social media apps.

The vast majority of air conditioning demand is expected to grow in emerging economies, where heat-related illnesses and deaths are already a threat for many communities.

The likelihood of increased deaths and human suffering in developing countries, which could be the result of power system shortages, is of a completely different magnitude from the economic impact and risk of slowed search results that may come as a result of failing to increase power supply for data hubs.

BUILDING EFFECT

Climate change will lead to heatwaves that are more intense, longer and more frequent in many parts of the world. This is especially true in developing countries like South and Southeast Asia, where high humidity can increase the effects of heat stress.

According to a report by India's Centre for Science and the Environment, "even a heatwave lasting only a few day can cause tens and thousands of deaths excess in India."

In order to combat this, many new homes and office buildings in countries with warm climates are increasing the number of cooling systems they contain.

Many of these areas have already experienced a construction boom, which has increased the need to cool space.

According to the IEA, in 2022, approximately 36% of households will have some type of air conditioning.

By 2035 this share is expected jump from 50% to 60%.

IEA data show that to power this expanding footprint, installed cooling capacity is expected to increase from 850 gigawatts in 2022, to 1,750 GW in 2035, to 2,700 GW in 2050.

INDIA-LED

In the next decade, India will be the largest consumer of cooling systems. It has the largest population in the world and will have the largest economy.

According to the IEA, India currently has around 110 million air conditioners out of the 2.4 billion units used globally.

By 2035, India will have a 13% share in the global air conditioner market (approximately 500 million units), which is expected to increase to over 1.1 billion units by 2020.

Indonesia, a fast-growing nation with a large population prone to humid and hot weather, will triple its air conditioners by 2035. Brazil, Mexico, and the Middle East all plan to double their numbers.

WIDENING LOADS

All regions will have to work hard in order to increase electricity supply in order for data centres and cooling system demand growth to be met.

The challenges of addressing these demand drivers are different depending on where power is required.

Most data centres in the United States and Europe are built near existing generation sites so that server farms have access to uninterrupted power without transmission delays.

Many of the cooling systems in developing economies are located within multi-story buildings or on previously undivided land. This means that power providers have to expand their geographical reach and increase volumes.

In India, Indonesia, and other countries, the need to increase the scale and scope of electricity production may lead to an expansion of the use of coal, which could cause pollution and accelerate the warming trend.

The sheer size of the energy demand will mean that fossil fuels will be insufficient to meet this growth. A variety of other power sources will be required.

The "all-of-the above" approach means that clean energy and renewable resources should become a larger part of the mix of electricity generation over time. This could lead to the eventual elimination of high pollution fuels.

In the short term, fossil fuels will be burned more to meet the increasing demand for electricity.

Heat stress will only increase in the future as people are forced to stay safe and comfortable at higher temperatures. This puts more strain on already stressed electrical grids.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)