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Bousso: The escalating war against Russia has a big impact on the oil industry in ROI.

Western oil companies have seen their profits soar as a result of the increasing attacks on Russia's energy industry, both in terms of economics and literally. This has helped to alleviate concerns about a possible supply glut and boosted profit margins for global refiners. Since July, waves of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's vast refinery and export terminal network have severely impacted the country's refined fuel exports such as fuel oil and diesel. According to Kpler, Russia's seaborne refinery product exports dropped by 500,000 barrels a day in September from their highs of 2025 to 2 million bpd. This is the lowest level for over five years. The reduced Russian exports has boosted global refinery margins. This is good news for energy giants such as Shell, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and France's TotalEnergies. They operate together nearly 11 million barrels per day, or over 10% of the global refining capability.

The fourth quarter saw a combined 61% increase in profits from refinery operations compared to the previous quarter. This contributed largely to the 20% increase in their overall profits.

Exxon, America's largest oil company, reported that its earnings in the energy products division rose more than 30% quarterly to $1.84 Billion, mainly due to strong refining margins, "due supply disruptions", the company stated on Friday.

BP is expected to report its results on Tuesday and will also benefit from the positive trends in global refining. Refining margins, which are a measure of BP's global operations, increased by 33% in just three months, from July to September. This figure has risen to $15.1 per barrel in the current fourth quarter. The increase in refining earnings is expected to offset the decline in oil prices, as it appears that the market has entered a period of oversupply. The oil majors have also benefited from the volatility created on the energy markets by Western sanctions, and other geopolitical conflict. These trading desks are able to generate large profits by quickly responding to changes in demand and supply dynamics.

Shell, the largest oil trader in the world, does not reveal the profits of its division. Shell reported that higher trading and refining profits boosted adjusted earnings by $706m in its Chemicals and Products division in the third quarter, compared to the previous three month.

BENEFICIAL BANKS Refining margins will likely remain high in the short term due to recent efforts by Western governments to press Moscow to end its war in Ukraine. In July, the European Union announced that it would ban imports from January 2026 of fuels made with Russian crude oil. The EU wants to close a loophole that existed in previous sanctions packages, which allowed refiners to use Russian crude oil at discounted prices to make diesel and jet fuel and then sell it to Europe.

The EU's ban on Russian crude, approved informally earlier this month by the European Union, puts Western oil majors at an advantage, as non-Russian products, including refined products made from non-sanctioned Russian crude, will be in greater demand.

Western energy giants received another pleasant surprise when U.S. president Donald Trump sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil companies on October 22, which account for 5% global crude supply, and 3.3 millions bpd in crude and refined products exports. This is roughly half the total of Russia’s crude and refined products.

As buyers of Russian crude oil and products, especially in India and Turkey scrambled for alternative supplies, the sanctions increased oil prices and margins.

The combination of Western sanctions and drone strikes in Ukraine could lead to a price surge similar to the one that occurred in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of 2022. This would result in record profits for oil majors.

Most likely not. Today's oil market is better supplied and equipped to adapt to sanctions. This is especially true given the growth of the "shadow fleet" tankers, which have been able circumvent Western sanctions in order to sell Russian crude oil.

The targeting of Russia's gas and oil industry will continue to benefit Western oil majors who enjoy large-scale upstream production, as well as extensive refining and trade operations. Want my weekly column, plus energy insights and links trending stories delivered to your inbox each Monday and Thursday? Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.

(source: Reuters)