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Bousso: The electrification of Europe's ROI will be a decade-long struggle.

Europe is facing a "death Valley" of high energy prices over the next decade, which threatens to erode their industrial base even if they achieve their ambitious plan to double electricity by 2040.

The European Commission announced on Friday an Electrification Action Plan aimed to increase electricity's share of final energy consumption, from 23% to 46% in 2040. An interim reference target is 32% by 2030.

The strategy aims to accelerate electrification in transport, buildings and industry while also tackling Europe's largest energy paradox -- "electricity can be more expensive than fossil fuels that policymakers would like consumers and businesses abandon."

The?Commission?argues turning Europe into the first "electrocontinent" of the world would drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, and the bloc's annual energy import bill could be reduced by up to EUR260 billion ($297billion) by 2040.

The appeal is clear at a time when the security of energy has become a priority in geopolitics. The challenge is also clear.

Europe is still largely fueled by fossil fuels. Oil, coal and gas account for over 60% of EU's total energy mix. Renewables only make up about one fifth.

Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy generation on the continent at a cost that is enormous, the continent has made much less progress in electrifying sectors such as transport, industry, and heating.

Even though Europe has been steadily decarbonising its electricity production, electricity remains a small part of total energy consumption. Since over a decade, the share of electricity consumption in total energy has been stable at 23%.

The disconnect highlights the magnitude of the task that lies ahead. It could determine the viability and future of European industry for the next decade.

MASSIVE VULNERABILITY

The energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on a large scale in February 2022 underscored the urgency to accelerate this shift.

Loss of Russian pipeline gas forced Europe to make a costly and painful energy realignment. It had to replace the cheap imports from east with more expensive liquefied gas imported from global markets.

The effects on industry were profound. Energy prices surged, causing a contraction of industrial activity. Manufacturers from metals to glass to chemicals to fertilisers struggled to compete against rivals from regions that benefitted from cheaper energy.

Europe is still highly exposed to fluctuations in the fossil-fuel market. According to the European Commission's estimates, since the beginning of the Iran War in late February, oil and gas imports have risen in the region by about EUR50 billion. This has added fresh inflationary pressure.

The Commission has proposed "a wide package of measures" to reduce energy costs. These include measures that aim to narrow the price difference between electricity and natural gas.

These include lowering network charges, introducing smart meters, increasing the affordability of electric vehicles, expanding charging infrastructure and replacing gas boilers with heat pump systems.

The EU's Emissions Trading System is the flagship policy of the EU on climate change. The reforms proposed would give industries a longer time frame to reduce emissions, while also providing more financial support for investments in clean technologies and domestic manufacture.

HUGE PRICE TAG

The scale of the investment required is staggering. According to a recent estimate by the Commission, upgrading and expanding Europe’s aged transmission and distribution network will require approximately EUR1.2 trillion in investment between 2040 and 2050.

Tens of millions more will be needed to fund programmes designed to promote electrification within the transport sector, in industry and in buildings.

There are reasons to be optimistic, though.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Europe spends about EUR60-EUR70 billion per year on power grids. This means that reaching the Commission’s investment target does not require a wholesale change in existing investment trends.

The proposed relaxation of ETS requirements could also unlock additional funding, allowing companies to redirect their capital towards modernising production and infrastructure.

The Commission wants the member states to also dedicate half of ETS revenue to decarbonising their domestic industry. Since 2013, the carbon market has generated approximately EUR260 billion of revenues.

Even after all of this, however, the increase in investment still remains daunting.

This is especially true as European governments are under pressure from Washington to increase NATO member contributions and to increase their?defence expenditure in response to the growing security threats? from Russia.

Existential Risk

Timing is the biggest issue.

The benefits of the plan will only be realized gradually, even if it survives the political fights that lie ahead. This is unlikely given the divergent interests among the 27 members states. It takes years to build grids, charging systems, heat pumps, batteries, and industrial infrastructure.

The challenge to Europe's competitiveness in the industrial sector, on the other hand, is urgent.

European electricity prices are still more than double those in the U.S., and about 50% higher than China. This leaves energy-intensive industries at a structural disadvantage despite the decline from the extremes of the energy crisis in 2022.

Europe's energy-intensive industries will need to be competitive with their rivals from Asia and North America for most of the decade. They must also expand electricity-hungry areas such as artificial intelligence and data centres.

This is the unsettling reality that lies at the core of Europe's electrification policy.

Electrifying Africa is not just a climate goal. It has become a necessity for a region that is limited in fossil fuel resources, exposed to geopolitical shocks and faces increasing costs of fuel imports.

It is a question of whether Europe's industry can survive for long enough to reap its benefits.

You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. ($1 = 0.8753 euro) (Ron Bousso, Editing by Jan Harvey).

(source: Reuters)