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Russian drone strikes foreign cargo ship near Ukraine Black Sea port
The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority reported late Wednesday that a Russian drone had damaged a civilian Panama-flagged ship transporting 'corn near the Ukrainian port of 'Chornomorsk' in the Black Sea Odesa area. The ports authority announced on Telegram that the vessel was struck while it was en route to leave the port, but did not specify the extent of damage. The Ukrainian Navy said that one crew member was injured?in an attack on the "BULL", which had left the port and was headed towards the Bosphorus Strait. A statement posted on social media stated that the captain refused to assist and evacuate the injured person, and instead continued along the designated route. Odesa is the hub port for 90% of Ukraine's exports. In recent months, Russia has attacked Ukraine's maritime export arteries. This includes ports that are vital for the country's foreign trade, and its wartime economic survival. The 'attacks' on port infrastructure, which caused a spike in logistics and freight costs, have hurt local businesses. They are now forced to lower their prices so that they can remain competitive on the international market. (Reporting and editing by Sonali P. Paul, Philippa Fletcher, Anna Pruchnicka)
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GAIL, India's gas utility, is considering reducing its supply to customers following the Petronet LNG forced majeure
GAIL (India), a subsidiary of India's GAIL, said it would 'assess' reducing supplies to its natural gas customers after receiving a notice of force majeure from its long-term supplier Petronet LNG due to constraints imposed on vessels resulting from the escalation in conflict in the Middle East. India's imports from Qatar of liquefied gas have been affected by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. After some vessels were damaged by the fallout of the U.S. and Israeli?attacks against Iran, the transit of 'oil' and LNG through Strait of Hormuz has been brought to a halt. GAIL announced that, as of March 4, the allocation of LNG to GAIL from Petronet has been reduced from a maximum of 0 tonnes. GAIL said that LNG from other suppliers and sources is not currently affected, in a stock exchange statement. Petronet LNG is India's largest gas importer. It issued a notice of force majeure to its supplier QatarEnergy and to local buyers such as GAIL and Indian oil?Corp after?its LNG tanks were unable reach the LNG loading facility at Ras Laffan. GAIL and IOC have already reduced gas supply to industrial customers. According to government statistics, India imported 27 million metric tonnes of LNG in 2024/25. This is about half its total gas consumption. Qatar is the largest supplier of LNG. Sethuraman N R; Tom Hogue, Editor.
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Shares of UAE companies continue to fall as the Middle East conflict intensifies
The UAE stock exchanges fell on Thursday morning, continuing losses from the previous day after the reopening of the bourses following the two-day trading suspension triggered by Iran’s 'unprecedented barrage' of missiles and drones that targeted the Emirates. After a two-day suspension of trading, the?UAE stock markets opened on Wednesday following Iran's drone and missile attacks against the Gulf state. Investors waited to learn more about the extent of damage caused by the weekend attacks that hit airports, ports and residential neighborhoods in both emirates. Both exchanges have announced that they will temporarily lower the price limit on securities by 5%. The U.S. - Iran war intensified on Wednesday, after a U.S. sub sank a naval?vessel of Iran off Sri Lanka and killed at least 80 people. NATO 'air defenses' shot down an Iranian ballistic missile heading toward Turkey. Dubai's main stock index fell more than 4% as stocks declined across the board. Top lender Emirates NBD, and blue-chip developer Emaar Properties, both lost 4.9%. Air Arabia.DU>, a budget airline, also declined by 4.9%. Utility firm Dubai Electricity &?Water Authority grew by 4.4%. First Abu Dhabi Bank, the largest lender in the country, fell 4.9%, while?Aldar Properties dropped 5%. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank was among the other banks to fall, with a?5% drop. Qatar National Bank, the Gulf's largest lender in terms of assets, rose 1.7%, bucking the trend. Qatar, the largest liquefied gas producer in Gulf, declared "force majeure" on Wednesday. According to sources, it may take a minimum of a month for production levels to return back up. Prices of oil jumped more than 3% on Wednesday, as fears grew over the potential disruptions in Middle East oil and natural gas supplies due to an escalating U.S./Israeli conflict with Iran.
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Russian drone strikes foreign cargo ship near Ukraine Black Sea port
The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority reported late Wednesday that a Russian drone had damaged a civilian Panama flagged vessel transporting corn in the Black Sea Odesa area near the Ukrainian port of Cronomorsk. The port authority said that the vessel was struck while it was en route out of the harbor and that some crew members were injured. They did not specify the extent of damage or how many crewmembers had been injured. Odesa is the hub port for 90% of Ukraine's exports. In recent months, Russia has attacked Ukraine's ports and maritime export routes, which are vital for its trade abroad and the survival of its wartime economic. Attacks on port infrastructure, causing a 'jump in freight and logistics costs, have hurt local businesses. They are forced to lower their prices to stay competitive on the international market. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; Anna Pruchnicka)
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Mike Dolan: ROI-Europe is able to absorb the Mideast energy shock, but not much else.
Europe is worried about an economic blow similar to the invasion of Ukraine in 2004. Initial fears could be exaggerated if futures markets are accurate. That's a very big "if". The European markets were shivering at the prospect of yet another energy crunch that would drive up inflation and sap demand. The soaring?oil price has hit the markets of major importing countries around the globe. Europe is particularly vulnerable to the resumption of disruptions in natural gas supply, which were already halted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Crude oil, although below the Tuesday peaks, is still more than 10% higher than last week. It's also at its highest level in over a year. European natural gas futures remain more than 50% higher than last Friday, and are also at levels from over a year ago. Money markets have begun to price in a small possibility of a rate hike, even though they have ruled out the probability of another European Central Bank rate cut. Benchmark 10-year government lending rates increased by more than 10 basis point? and euro stock indices fell up to 6%. Is it too much or only the beginning? All of this is put into perspective by a quick glance at the reaction to Ukraine's invasion. The six-month period following the February 2022 attack saw European?gas prices triple, ECB interest rates rise 100 basis points, German bund yields increase 135 basis points, the euro fall by 16% against the US dollar, and euro stocks plummet 22%. Not yet, at least. Expectations of inflation are not changing yet The gas price spike is nowhere near Ukraine's initial spike, despite Qatar's Wednesday halt to liquefied gas production after its installations and exports were blocked. The key difference is the way in which markets value long-term inflation expectations. In the seven months following the invasion of Ukraine, these expectations rose by 70 basis points to 2%. Even though the Iran attacks occurred only five days ago, expectations have barely changed. Most investors are firmly convinced that the energy shortage and conflict in the region is temporary and will allow prices to return to normal by the end of the summer. For what it's really worth, the Polymarket prediction market sees a 40% probability that the current Iranian government falls by mid-year. Energy traders see it as a time-limited shortage. Brent crude oil prices, for instance, are expected to drop by more than $10 a barrel before the end of the year, and return to their pre-attack levels. Prices of natural gas futures are higher for a longer period of time. The rates at the end-of-year are about $10 more than they were one month earlier. The gap will close within a year. Most economists are concerned about the economic impact of the war, but no one can really see it at this time. There are some key differences this time around. While ECB hawks may be wary of trying to "see-through" an inflation rise, as they did in the past, after the pandemic or in Ukraine, where many said central banks tightened too late in order to prevent steep price increases, there are also important differences. For a start, monetary and fiscal policies are?already tighter than they were then. The ECB was also at risk of a significant undershoot of its 2% target inflation over the 'next year. The economists at Deutsche Bank point out that the relatively small energy futures movements so far, and the undisturbed expectations of long-term inflation on the market are "more consistent" with eliminating the risk of inflation undershooting the 2% target than with overshooting. The ECB's baseline for inflation is still on target, but rising energy prices are muddying the waters. According to its "ready reckoners" or standard rule-of thumb models, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties this year could result in a 0.25 percent drop off of euro zone GDP. Geopolitical shock in 2022 knocked one point off the GDP. Europe is still vulnerable to the global energy market, not just in the Middle East, but also because of its heavy reliance on U.S. LNG during a period when trade and diplomatic relations between Washington are fractious. As it is, the system can probably take it on its chin. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Sign up for Morning Bid U.S., my weekly newsletter. You can also listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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DHL's operating profit will increase in 2026 despite a worsening geopolitical climate
DHL, the German logistics company, forecast on Thursday a "higher operating income for 2026" that was in line with market expectations despite deteriorating geopolitical conditions. The company expects earnings before interest and taxes to exceed 6.2 billion euros ($7.2 billion) after reporting 6.1 million euros last year. The free cash flow, excluding acquisitions, should be in the range of 3 billion euros. The company provided a consensus that showed both targets were in line with analysts' average predictions. Tobias Meyer, CEO of Tobias Meyer & Co. said that there is "significant geopolitical uncertainty and volatility out there" as was evident in the first two months of this year. "Our forecast does not assume an improvement in the global economy." As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, logistics and shipping companies face increasing?disruptions on air and sea routes. Iran's closure of Strait of Hormuz Sunday forced major carriers, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, to once again divert their vessels around Africa. This added significant transit time as well as costs. FedEx, the U.S. package giant, announced on Monday that it would temporarily suspend services in five countries of the region. Analysts had predicted a decline of 1.3% in DHL's operating profit for the fourth quarter, to 1.83 billion euro. The freight forwarding division, which saw a 36% drop in earnings, weighed down the result. European shipping and logistic firms are 'fighting against weaker demand, a series of trade disruptions and tariffs from President Donald Trump. We?see a decline in freight rates for air and ocean freight. Meyer stated that the economic conditions in Europe and Germany are affecting road freight. Reporting by Emanuele Bernro and Matthias Inverardi, editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak.
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US charter flights repatriating Americans to Middle East, State Department claims
The U.S. State Department announced on Wednesday that a U.S. government charter flight is bringing Americans from the Middle East to the United States, and additional flights are being planned for other locations in the region. The agency did not provide any information on the number or passengers, the countries they were departing from, nor the arrival and departure times of the flight. Since February 28, when U.S. forces and Israeli forces launched initial strikes against Iran, more than 17500 Americans have safely returned home to the United States. The State Department reported that approximately 8,500 Americans returned from the Middle East on Tuesday. The Department of State reported that many more Americans have fled the Middle East for other countries in Europe or Asia since the beginning of the conflict. The State Department issued a directive on Monday urging Americans in 14 Middle Eastern countries to leave the region immediately using "available commercial transportation." Many Americans are still facing difficulties due to the global travel disruptions that have been caused by this war. Some?U.S. lawmakers were very critical of the situation. The State Department was accused by lawmakers of poor planning and late warnings. The Department responded that it was "facilitating charter flights from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan" for U.S. Citizens in need. Christian Martinez, Ismail Shakil, and Steve Gorman reported; Jacqueline Wong edited.
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Sky News reports that the first UK flight to Middle East will be delayed until Thursday.
Sky News reported that a British flight to repatriate UK citizens after the Middle East war broke out did not take off on time from Oman as planned. The flight has now been rescheduled later Thursday. Could not confirm the report immediately. The British Foreign Office didn't immediately respond to an outside of'regular office hours? request for comment. The Foreign Office said that British nationals, their partners or spouses, and children were welcome to take the flight. Priority was given to the most vulnerable. Sky News reported that an unidentified passenger who was scheduled to fly on the flight said, "We were told the plane would?takeoff later today after the pilot has rested." The passenger said, "We were informed that due to the slow check-in process and delays, the pilot needed to rest as he had already clocked his hours." Since Israel and the U.S. struck Iran on Saturday, hundreds of thousands of Europeans are stranded. Iran attacked its neighbors after Israel struck on Saturday. The people stuck in the area are either on holiday, transiting through or permanently based there. British Airways said that it will also operate a flight out of Oman at the dawn of Thursday local time. Gursimran K. Kaur, Bengaluru. Christopher Cushing & Kate Mayberry edited the article.
Maguire: ROI-Charting of the impact of the Iran Crisis on Energy Markets.
The ongoing U.S. - Iran war is having a global impact. Fuel prices, European gas costs and Asian freight rates have all risen sharply since the strikes began over the weekend.
The interconnectedness of global energy markets is illustrated by the transmission of market jitters in the fuel, power and shipping sectors, despite recent efforts to increase energy security and produce more energy domestically.
Here is a list of the key markets that were impacted by the conflagration since it began over the weekend. Also, here are the most important data points you should be tracking as the skirmishes continue and disruptions in energy product flows could worsen.
SHIPPING OUT
After the bombings last weekend and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the global tanker fleet was one of the hardest-hit sectors.
A fifth of the world's oil, fuel, and LNG passes through this well-known maritime chokepoint. As a result, virtually all energy liquid carriers have been affected by the traffic disruptions, and the scramble that followed to reroute the shipments.
Shipping quotes for crude oil from the Middle East to China show the severity of the logistical crunch. The cost of chartering an extremely large crude carrier (VLCC), which was around $120,000 per day last week, has risen to over $450,000 per day since the fighting began.
China is the largest oil importer in the world. Domestic crude oil futures have also surged, increasing by 31% from last Friday to the 12% increase for Brent and U.S. oil futures during the same time period.
The supply chain chaos has not only affected China.
The fuel tanker prices from Singapore to Japan, and the U.S.A. to Europe also increased this week due to the tightening of energy supplies worldwide and the panicky attitude among oil and fuel purchasers.
GAS & FUELS
The price of natural gas in Europe has also risen sharply this week. This is because several European countries are still heavily dependent on gas for their power and industrial needs, but have reduced their local gas stocks to levels not seen in many years.
The benchmark European gas prices have soared in response to news that Qatar had halted the loading of liquefied gas after its main gas liquefaction plants were attacked by Iranian drones on the weekend.
Prices for European gas futures have increased by almost 70% since Friday. Even prices for December 2026 are up around 40% on the expectation of a continued tightening in global gas supply while Qatar remains off-line.
Brent, the benchmark crude oil price for the world, has also surged higher in recent weeks. Prices for May futures have risen by about 12% and prices for year-end by around 3 %.
The fear that shipping routes from the Middle East may be clogged for a long time has boosted sentiment on all major oil markets. This is especially true as storage tanks in the Middle East fill up quickly and force producers to cut production if they cannot resume exports within a short period of time.
U.S. futures gasoline prices have also followed a similar pattern, despite the fact that the U.S. has been a major crude oil exporter and producer.
Nearby - U.S. Nearby?U.S.
U.S. president Trump announced steps?to re-establish ship traffic in the Middle East to lower energy costs for U.S. customers. This included a proposal that the U.S. 'Navy escorts tankers through Strait of Hormuz.
Energy prices are likely to remain high for at least the short term, as the U.S. and Israel continue to increase their bombing campaigns and cause more damage to the energy and logistic channels in the Middle East.
In the coming weeks, all major energy markets could see even more dramatic increases in fuel, power and freight prices.
These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
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(source: Reuters)