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Asia oil floating storage surges as sanctions, tight China quota curb demand

Analysts said that the volume of oil onboard ships in Asian waterways has doubled over the past few weeks as tighter western sanctions have hit imports from China, India and as an import quota shortage has curtailed demand from independent Chinese refiners.

The European Union (EU), United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) have all imposed sanctions on Russia for its involvement in the war in Ukraine. Last month, the US embargo targeted Russia's top two oil producers, Rosneft & Lukoil.

Some refiners from China and India are now buying oil in the Middle East, despite rising production.

The floating oil storage in Asia-Pacific reached a record high of 53 millions barrels by the end of October, up by 20 million barrels since early September. This was boosted by increased storage of Iranian and Venezuelan crudes sanctioned by the United Nations.

Mary Melton is a senior analyst at Braemar. She explained that the increase in shadow crude in Asia can be attributed to the high number of barrels on the sea and the difficulty of absorbing all of the imports into the independent refineries of Shandong in China because of high inventories.

Separate data from OilX, a shiptracker, showed that potential floating storage in Asia increased to 70 million barrels at the end of October from 50 million barrels as recently as October 15.

Shiptracker Vortexa data showed that 161 millions barrels of Iranian crude oil were currently stored and transported on ships, an increase of 22.5 million barrels since September. Data showed that the equivalent volume of Venezuelan oil was 72.3 million barrels. This is an increase of 6.6 million barrels since end-September.

Torbjorn Tornqvist, CEO of energy and commodities trader Gunvor Group, said that Western sanctions were causing record amounts of oil to be stored aboard vessels. This is preventing an oversupply on global markets.

Melton said, "We're beginning to notice a weekly and daily increase in the number of Russian crudes stored on floating storage."

SANCTIONS DETERRENT

The main Iranian oil buyers in China have reduced their purchases due to fears that they will be targeted by U.S. Sanctions, which are already disrupting the supply chain.

Oil revenues for these major oil producers have been hit by the rapid increase in supply of oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.

Kpler reported that the volume of Russian crude oil stored onboard ships in Asia-Pacific also increased, with a six-fold rise to 6 million barils in October from the previous month, as Chinese buyers and Indians became more cautious.

Analysts at Kpler stated that "Russian exports may continue to be under pressure in the near term as U.S. blockade sanctions against Rosneft, Lukoil and other state-owned buyers deter state-run purchasers."

While Chinese independent refiners will be less deterred by the sanctions, their demand is still low. Many are nearing their 2025 import limits or have switched to cheaper Iranian crude.

According to market sources, Chinese independents had largely exhausted their 2025 import quotas by the end of September. China controls crude imports from independent refiners through a strict system of quotas.

(source: Reuters)