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Middle East oil exports drive tanker costs up to 6-year high amid threat of US/Iran war

Industry sources claim that the cost of shipping crude oil has risen?to its highest level in six years. This is due to a surge of crude exports out of the Middle East, as traders rush to book charters before a possible conflict between the U.S.

The cost to hire a very 'large 'crude carrier to transport up to 2,000,000 barrels of crude oil from the Middle East into China has tripled since the beginning of the year, reaching over $170,000 a daily on Tuesday. This is the highest price ever recorded, according to LSEG.

Data from shipping analytics company Kpler revealed that Middle East crude oil exports in February surpassed 19 million barrels a day, which is the highest level since April 2020. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Iran led the way, while India's need for crude oil increased after India cut Russian imports.

"VLCC rates are a result of many positive fundamental factors,?starting from Venezuela barrels being transported on legitimate freight vs a darker fleet previously, increased OPEC+ output and healthy crude oil demand, especially from India which has switched from Russian 'to Middle Eastern barrels," stated June Goh, a Senior Analyst at Sparta Commodities.

She said that the dirty freight market would soon be affected by the Suezmax and Aframax tanker markets. These smaller tankers are used to transport crude oil and fuel oil.

WAR-RISK INSURANCE PREMIUMS IN FOCUS

If Washington strikes Iran and Tehran responds by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz - a major chokepoint in Gulf oil exports - shipping costs could increase.

In a note, broker Clarksons stated that "for crude tankers the key point is VLCC spot... (rates) do not need barrels to disappear in order to move."

Charterers can book further in advance to avoid schedule uncertainty. Owners may also demand compensation for calling the region.

Dryad Global, a maritime risk management company, said that the ongoing Iranian military exercise in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman is directly responsible for an increased risk of GPS jamming, spoofing of AIS tracking and GPS jamming.

As a result, the global tanker fleet is also smaller, as hundreds of older vessels are sold to a shadow fleet that has no insurance and transports sanctioned oil out of Iran and Russia.

Market sources claim that oil majors won't use these vessels and will tighten vessel availability until the fleet is replenished over the next 3 years.

SOUTH KOREAN'S SINOKOR is the world's top VLCC operator

Sources said that the South Korean shipping company Sinokor, has recently "emerged" as a major purchaser of VLCCs. This will reduce the supply of these ships on the open market, and allow owners to increase the 'rates' for 30-day charters.

Sinokor didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment.

Three brokers and shipping officials estimated that the company controls around 78 VLCCs on the daily active spot market.

They said that this number is expected to increase?to 88 vessels in the current quarter. This would mean the fleet may eventually exceed 100 vessels, possibly reaching 120-130 ships. The sources declined to comment because the matter was so sensitive.

Sinokor, with 88 vessels, is now the largest VLCC operator, and accounts for 24% of spot-trading, and approximately 12% of the global VLCC fleet. This is an unprecedented concentration of commercial entities in this market, according to a recent note by shipping analytics firm, Signal Group.

Market sources stated that the overall VLCC industry is expected to be strong and will allow operators to charge higher rates.

Sparta's Goh stated: "At a certain point, high freight costs will impact refining profits and could trigger a reduction in demand for the fleet."

(source: Reuters)