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US truckers' diesel spending on Middle East conflict reaches record high
More than 3 million U.S. trucks that move goods from factories, to grocery stores and construction sites, are facing the highest diesel prices for years. This is adding pressure to the industry because the Iran War-related spikes in oil prices threaten to reduce freight demand. Since the start of the Iran War, the Strait of Hormuz has been a vital artery of global energy flow. The price of diesel, which is used to fuel trucks, has increased by $1.89 or 50%. Diesel and gasoline prices also soared as crude oil prices, the basis for both, rose. This led to higher transportation costs and increased prices of many consumer goods. Experts warn that there is no relief in sight, as diesel prices have reached all-time highs in logistic hubs such as California and Texas. A ceasefire between the U.S.A. and Iran announced last week also appears fragile. The state of the U.S. economic climate is closely tied to trucking. According to American Trucking Associations, in 2024 the industry will have moved nearly three quarters of all freight, including retail and manufactured goods, and generated $906 Billion in revenue. According to fleet management software provider Samsara, U.S. fleets spent an average of $5.52 per gallon of diesel on Monday. This is higher than the previous all-time record of $5.50, set in June 20, 2022, after?Russia invaded Ukraine. Fuel spend data from Samsara, which includes discounts and surcharges and is based on more than 5,500 fleets across the U.S., represents almost 1 billion gallons of fuel. Jason Miller, supply chain professor at Michigan State University, said that no company had $5.60 per gallon of diesel in their budget bingo cards for 2026. FedEx, a delivery firm that also runs one of America's largest trucking companies, has said the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran may have an impact on the fourth quarter performance, if rising fuel prices cause customers to withdraw. Small firms are hit the hardest According to a March survey by DAT Freight & Analytics, 18% of the 540 trucking companies surveyed had ceased operations because of the rise in fuel prices. Around 44% of the firms, of different sizes, from all over the U.S. were more selective with load weights, and around 45% drove fewer miles. Small businesses dominate U.S. trucks. As of June 20, 2025, ATA reported that there were 580,000 registered motor carriers in the United States, 91.5% of which operated 10 trucks or less. In a recent market update, DAT’s Dean Croke, principal analyst, said that the surge in diesel prices had wiped out profits from December, January, and February for many small carriers and owners-operators. He added that most operators were still just above breakeven. Heather Hickson Griffith is a former Marine with more than 10 years of experience driving a big truck. She pays up to $8 a gallon for fuel in California, which is consuming her savings quicker than the spike in fuel prices of 2022. In order to save money, the Oklahoma heavy equipment hauler stopped eating in restaurants. Daniel Griffith, her husband, runs cargoes to the East Coast where fuel is less expensive. GKZ Trucking is a small company with 21 owner-operators that does not have the heft to recover higher fuel costs. They are also more susceptible to cash flow problems and profits squeezes as prices rise. Hickson Griffith, an independent driver from Texas, often pays out of pocket for fuel. They can find it difficult to convince customers to reimburse them if prices increase. The large companies negotiate fuel discounts with fuel suppliers and use surcharges to recover higher fuel costs. Hickson said that without relief, he would be in pain to the point of no returns by the end of the calendar year. Avery Vise is vice president of FTR Transportation Intelligence and said that the soaring diesel prices could drive thousands of small truckers out of business. This would worsen an already limited trucking capacity. Vise stated that freight rates will rise more than 2022. Researchers at Texas A&M Transportation Institute discovered that transportation costs are a relatively small part of the cost of goods, but can reach 20% or more for certain staples such as?milk. Inflation is still below the levels of 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy shock when supply chain disruptions due to pandemics and massive federal expenditures?contributed?to soaring prices. RISE OF FUTURE PRICE INCREASES As midterm elections approach, President Donald Trump's Republican Party and the high price of fuel have become a major political headache. Since the Middle East conflict escalated, diesel prices have reached record highs in California, Hawaii Nevada, North Carolina, and Texas. Kelly Soderlund is the head of insight at?Samsara. She said that the rise in diesel prices far outpaced the rise in gasoline prices. The two prices rose together in the early days of?Ukraine War. She said that today's fuel costs are more expensive for truckers than consumers. Patrick De Haan is the head of GasBuddy's petroleum analysis. He said that motorists should be prepared for another round price increases after the ceasefire talks between Iran and the U.S. failed to produce an agreement at the weekend. This sent oil prices sharply up. He said that the move towards a complete blockade of Strait of Hormuz was compounding global concerns about supply and could further disrupt flows.
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Since the start of the Iran war, oil tankers have been transiting Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. ban on ships entering or exiting Iranian ports has added to the uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This area of waterway, which was all but closed since the beginning of the Iran War, is now even more uncertain. The Strait of Hormuz is the route through which approximately one fifth of all global oil and gas exports pass. The following is a list of non-Iranian tankers which have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the U.S.-Israeli War with Iran, on February 28. They are listed according to their cargo destinations. MALAYSIA Liberia's Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), Serifos, entered and left the Hormuz Passage test anchorage on April 10, bypassing Iran's Larak Island. On April 10, the Liberia-flagged Very Large Crude?Carrier (VLCC)?Serifos entered and exited the Hormuz Passage trial anchorage that bypassed Iran's Larak Island. Ocean Thunder, a vessel chartered by Petronas and loaded with Iraqi crude, passed the waterway in Malaysia on April 5. It is expected to discharge 1 million barrels Basrah heavy crude oil at Pengerang, Malaysia, on April 18. Two people with knowledge of the situation said that both tankers were among seven Malaysian-linked vessels that Iran had cleared to pass through the Strait. Cospearl Lake, a VLCC flying the Chinese flag, and He Rong Hai left the Strait of Hormuz in April. Cospearl Lake, loaded with Iraqi crude oil, will arrive in China's Zhoushan Port on May 1. He Rong Hai will be heading to Myanmar in order to unload its Saudi crude cargo. Unipec is the trading arm of Sinopec. Kpler data revealed that the VLCC Dhalkut passed through the Strait of Hormuz on April 2 and is now heading to Myanmar, where it will discharge Saudi crude by April 22. The crude oil that is discharged in Myanmar usually goes to PetroChina’s Yunnan refinery. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on March 31 that, after consultation with all relevant parties, three Chinese ships had recently passed through the Strait of Hormuz. In March and April, at least two VLCCs as well as two Suezmax tankers left the Gulf to unload crude oil in India. VLCC Habrut will discharge Abu Dhabi crude oil for Indian Oil Corp. on April 15 after it crossed the Strait of Hormuz on April 2. Kpler data revealed that on March 28, the VLCC Marathi discharged Saudi oil at Sikka for Reliance Industries. Data shows that the Liberia flagged Smyrni Suezmax tanker left the strait in March and discharged 1,000,000 barrels of Saudi oil at Mumbai on March 16 for the state refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corp. The data showed that another suezmax tanker, the Shenlong, left the strait in March 6, and discharged 1 million barrels of Saudi crude to Mumbai on March 11 for the state refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Kpler data shows that the Gabon-flagged Msg is headed to India's Pipavav Port after having passed through the strait in April 9. Liberia's Navara, a tanker that sailed the strait in March 31 discharged fuel oil on April 8 at Sikka Port. The government announced in late March that two tankers bound for India and carrying 94,000 tons of liquefied gas had safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data revealed that BW Tyr was discharged in Mumbai and Pipavav from April 5 to April 7 and BW Elm at three Indian ports from April 6 to April 15. Four other LPG tankers, all with Indian flags, had already left the Strait - Shivalik, Nanda Devi Pine Gas and Jag Vasant. PAKISTAN Two Pakistani flagged tankers entered Gulf on April 12, Data showed that the Aframax tanker Shalamar was heading to the United Arab Emirates to load Das crude on Monday, and the Panamax-sized Khairpur was heading to Kuwait to fill refined products. Aframax tanker P. Aliki sailed through the strait in March and discharged Saudi crude oil at Karachi, Pakistan on March 31. THAILAND According to a Thai official, the owner of the tanker, Bangchak Corporation, the tanker has successfully passed the Strait of Hormuz after diplomatic coordination with Iran. The vessel was not forced to pay to get through the blockade. Kpler data revealed that the Suezmax tanker Pola released 1 million barrels Khafji crude in Thailand and Singapore. (Reporting and editing by Ruth Chai, Florence Tan, and Janane Venkatraman).
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Delta Air Lines scales back sustainable fuel and net-zero targets, Bloomberg News Reports
Bloomberg News reported that Delta Air Lines removed two important environmental targets from its sustainability page late last week. The report stated that the 'Atlanta-based carrier has rephrased their quest to achieve zero emissions by 2050 as an "aspiration" rather than a goal. SAF, which is largely made from waste cooking oil or 'waste cooking oil', can reduce emissions by a significant amount compared to traditional jet fuel. It is still two to five time more expensive than conventional jet fuel. According to a Delta spokesperson quoted in the Bloomberg report, the airline still considers?SAF one of the best ways to reduce carbon emissions, but the slow progress it has made threatens the climate goals for the industry. Delta did not respond immediately to a comment request. Willie Walsh (director-general, International Air Transport Association) said in February that the shortage of new, efficient aircraft and alternative fuels was pushing up the profits of suppliers and putting the industry's main emissions goal at risk. IATA's 350 member airlines set a target for reducing emissions by?2%-3% of global total in?2021. This effort is heavily dependent on the use of SAF, and timely access to new planes and engines that are delayed by supply-chain problems. Reporting by Heera Ghosh and Kanjyik in Barcelona, with editing by Shashesh Kuber.
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United and American Airlines rise after Kirby merger with Trump
United Airlines and American Airlines stocks rose in premarket trading Tuesday, after United CEO Scott Kirby, according to sources, had reportedly pitched the idea of a merger between the two carriers to U.S. president Donald Trump back in February. The merger of two major U.S. airlines could be the largest airline consolidation since more than a decade. United States shares rose 2%, while American stocks grew by 4%. The two stocks have both fallen in recent weeks as the U.S. - Israel war against Iran has sent jet fuel prices soaring. American is down 14.1%, and United is down 10.4% since the conflict began in late Feb. Kirby brought up the idea at a White House meeting on February 25, which was focused on the future Dulles Airport in Washington, according to sources. He said a combined airline would be able to "better compete on the international stage, where foreign carriers are in control of a majority long-haul capacity from and to the U.S. despite that most passengers were U.S. citizens. Antitrust experts and industry?officials said that approval would be difficult, citing concerns about?competition, higher fares, lost jobs, and significant route overlaps in a highly concentrated U.S. air?market, which is dominated by just four large carriers. United and American refused to comment and the White House didn't respond to requests for comments. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Rashika Singh)
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As Iran's war chokes jet-fuel supply, airlines urge EU to step up
A document seen by?by shows that European airlines have called on the European Union (EU) to take emergency measures in order to deal with the consequences of the 'Iran War, such as widespread airspace closings and growing concerns about jet?fuel shortages. In a document, the industry group "Airlines for Europe" (A4E), has asked the EU to introduce a number of crisis response actions, including EU level monitoring of jet fuel supply, a suspension of the EU carbon market for aviation and the scrapping of certain aviation taxes. Since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began on February 28th, the aviation sector has been affected by airspace closings. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has banned European airlines from operating within the airspace of'several Gulf nations including the UAE's and Qatar up until April 24th. After the Strait of Hormuz was closed, the sector also faces a?crunch in jet fuel. Airports Council International Europe, a group of industry professionals, warned last week that Europe might face a severe jet fuel shortage within three weeks. The A4E paper urged Brussels, which is a type of jet fuel, to consider a joint EU purchase of kerosene. After Russia cut gas deliveries to Europe in 2022, the EU implemented a joint gas purchase program to try to maintain supplies. The model hasn't been used for oil or kerosene yet. A4E's members, which include Lufthansa and Air France-KLM, as well as easyJet, have also called on the EU to amend their legal requirement that?countries maintain?90 day of emergency oil reserve, since this does not currently include a requirement regarding jet fuel. The document also asked for clarifications on the existing legislation. This included confirmation that "airspace closures resulting from conflict and operational effects" will be treated as justified non-uses of slots. The European Commission has said that it will present a package of measures to counter the impact of the Iran War on energy markets on April 22. However, this has not been confirmed to include any specific measures for jet fuel.
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Citigroup upgrades US stocks as earnings and tech strength soothe Mideast war worries
Citigroup is now bullish on U.S. stocks, joining the flurry?of?brokerages who are betting on robust corporate earnings and attractive valuations following recent pullbacks. They also believe that U.S. tech stocks will contribute more to global earnings growth. In a late-Monday note, the 'Wall Street' brokerage upgraded U.S. equity to "Overweight", from "Neutral". S&P 500 index has recovered nearly 9% since a low of seven months in late March. This is due to optimism that the Middle East conflict will ease the risk of an oil-driven inflation. BlackRock Investment Institute and other Wall Street brokerages, including BlackRock Investment Institute which upgraded U.S. equity on Monday, shared similar views. They favored U.S. stocks above their global peers. Citi strategists wrote in a 'Monday note that the (U.S. market) has derated, and trades now at a premium compared to developed markets excluding the U.S., which is?closer to historical averages. At a time when global earnings growth is slowing down and skewing more towards technology, Citi stated that while all sectors will see a rise in earnings per share by 2026, the tech sector is expected to account for about 50% of this increase. The brokerage downgraded emerging markets equities, however, to a "Neutral", pointing out that many EMs are still highly vulnerable to energy shortages. In addition, the strength of the dollar could exacerbate these headwinds. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has fallen 2.8% since the start of the conflict. This is due to the fact that the war with Iran has pushed up oil prices. It also caused concerns over inflation, external balances deteriorating, and capital flows in energy-importing countries. Citi also?upgraded their year-end MSCI EM target to 1,770, from 1,540. The brokerage also upgraded the global materials sector to "Overweight", saying that improved earnings momentum and stronger growth prospects have elevated its appeal while it is still cheap. The brokerage downgraded global communication services to "Underweight". Reporting by Joel Jose in Bengaluru and Kanishka AJmera; editing by Rashmi AYICH
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The Iranian war has a major impact on the IEA's global outlook for oil markets
The International Energy Agency has drastically cut their 'forecasts' for the growth of global oil supply and demand. Both are expected to drop from levels in 2025 as wars in the Middle East disrupt oil flows and weigh on a global economy. The IEA has revised its projections for global 'oil demand' to a decline of 80,000 barrels a day by?2026. This is compared to a projected increase year-on-year of 640,000 bpd iin the previous monthly report. The IEA stated that "demand destruction" will continue to spread as long as scarcity and high prices continue. It added that the Middle East and Asia-Pacific have seen the biggest reductions in oil consumption so far. The Paris-based watchdog predicts that global oil supplies will fall by 1.5 millions?bpd in this year. This is a dramatic drop from the?1.1million?bpd increase projected last month. The IEA reported that the 'largest oil supply disruption in history' was caused by attacks on energy infrastructures in the 'Middle East' and Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. In March, 10.1 million bpd of oil production were lost.
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The IEA reports that Russia's oil export revenue increased in March.
The International Energy Agency reported that Russia's revenue from crude oil and re-fined?products increased in March. They had fallen to their lowest level since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 in February, when prices spiked because of the Iran war. The commodity revenues of Russia are vital to the state budget. They also help support increasing military expenditures. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA)?said that Russia's crude exports increased by 270,000 barrels a day last month, from February, to 4.6 millions bpd. This was mainly due to higher seaborne shipments because the Druzhba Pipeline remained offline. Following the attack on the infrastructure of the Druzhba Pipeline at the end January, the flow to Hungary and Slovakia via Ukrainian territory has remained closed. The IEA said that Russia's oil export revenues grew to $19 billion from $9.75 in February, as global oil prices soared. The report said that Russia’s crude oil production increased last month from 8,67 million bpd to?8,96 million bpd. The agency said that Russia could struggle to increase oil production beyond the early first quarter levels in the near future due to damage to the?port and?energy?infrastructure. Drone strikes by Ukraine have repeatedly caused damage to Russian ports and refineries on the Black Sea and Baltic Sea. (Reporting and Editing by Louise Heavens).
Australia Inc. begins to feel the fallout of the Iran war, increasing stagflation risks
Two of Australia's top companies have issued profit warnings, and the 'crash in sentiment in the business community indicates that rising prices are causing pain, increasing the risk of stagflation.
Qantas Airways, the?country's?top airline?and Westpac Banking Corp., the second-largest lender?both warned that their earnings might be affected by rising fuel prices.
Westpac stated that the expected slowdown in economic growth would create a challenging environment for certain customers. "The supply shock from energy market disruption is expected to lead to higher inflation and interest rates," Westpac said.
The 'updates' are the most clear indications to date of how the Middle East conflict, and fuel crisis that has resulted from it, is impacting on the bottom line?of Australian companies.
The comments came on the same day that surveys showed that consumer and business confidence had plummeted, and Reserve Bank of Australia's Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned of a "central bank nightmare": stagflationary stress - high inflation and low activity.
Qantas said its jet fuel bill could be as high as A$800,000,000 ($567,000,000) for the second half?of?its financial years ending in June, or 32% more than they had previously predicted due to a rise in oil prices. They also announced that it has cut flights and raised fares.
Qantas, in an update on the market, said that jet fuel prices had more than doubled. They remained highly volatile. The airline added that it closely monitored the "dynamic" environment and was prepared to take additional steps to counter the fuel price increases.
Qantas said that it has also delayed a planned A$150m share buyback because of the increased uncertainty.
Westpac increased its credit provisions because it anticipated that borrowers would face a more difficult outlook as a result of rising interest rates and prices. The provisioning level was the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The longer the war, the more it will hurt
Investors were more surprised by Westpac's warning than Qantas's. The bank's share price fell 3.7% while Qantas's dropped 1%.
Omkar Joshi is the chief investment officer of Opal Capital Management. He said, "Westpac's talk about higher bad debts for some?of its energy-exposed clients" was interesting.
Investors say that the longer the Middle East conflict continues, the greater the material impact it will have on the economy, leading to a rise in profit warnings.
National Australia Bank’s index of business optimism fell?29 to -29 in march, a magnitude that is only seen in major crises such as the 2020 pandemic. Separate survey shows consumer sentiment fell by 12.5% in April, its lowest level in over a year.
In New Zealand, on Monday, a2 Milk cut its profit guidance for fiscal 2026, citing disruptions in its supply chain due to the Middle East conflict.
Joshi, of Opal Capital Management, said that recession or stagflation were "definitely real risks".
Has the risk increased over the past six weeks?" "I'd say it has definitely increased."
(source: Reuters)