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Japanese shippers await details on Hormuz reopening, mine clearance
Japanese shippers welcomed the U.S. - Iran peace 'agreement' on Monday, which will reopen Strait of Hormuz. However, they are waiting for more details of the agreement?and the clearance of mines before allowing their ships to pass the chokepoint. The association claims that 38 vessels with Japanese connections are still stranded on the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which began on 28 February, has largely halted shipping through the strait. This is the transit route of?roughly a five percent of the world’s oil and liquefied gas supply?alongside vital products such as aluminum and urea. The global oil price fell by?4% after U.S. president Donald Trump and Iran’s deputy foreign minister announced that they had reached an initial agreement to end the conflict and resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. A spokesperson from the Japanese Shipowners' Association stated on Monday that the group was happy with the peace accord, but wanted to "wait for more concrete details", which they expected to receive by June 19, the date the U.S. and Iran?pact will be signed in Switzerland. The spokesperson stated that there had been reports of mines being laid in the area. She added: "Given this situation, we can't just say, 'Right now, let's go,' based solely on the news about the agreement." Nippon Yusen is the largest shipper in Japan. It said that it hoped to return operations to normal as soon as possible. However, a spokesperson stated it was still too early to comment about the schedules of Japan-linked vessels stuck?in Gulf. He refused to say how many ships of the company remain in the Gulf.
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IFM Global offers a 'best and last' bid of $5.2 billion for Australia's Atlas Arteria
IFM Global Infrastructure Fund increased its bid to takeover 'Australia's Atlas Arteria a week ago, to A$7.40bn ($5.24bn). It called the revised offer its 'best and final proposal. IFM raised its offer for Atlas Arteria to A$5.10 from A$4.75. Atlas had rejected the previous bid a month earlier, calling it opportunistic. Atlas's bid price was announced at the end of April. The new offer represents a 17.8% increase. Atlas shares were up 0.4% to A$2.82 at 0015 GMT while the benchmark index rose 1.3%. The toll operator stated that a'report by an independent expert' also concluded the offer wasn't fair or reasonable. IFM's'statement' on Monday said that Atlas' independent directors' claims, 'that more value can be created by asset sales' are 'dishonest'.
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Manufacturers and unions warn that the UK is losing jobs to other countries due to high energy prices
A manufacturing group and a trade union warned that Britain risks losing?major industries due to high energy costs. They urged the government to do more to reduce?companies bills. In an industrial strategy announced a year earlier, Britain committed to reducing electricity costs in energy-intensive industries, by exempting these from certain green levies. Since then, the scheme has been expanded and retroactively applied. Industry group Make UK said a survey showed that more than half of its members had not seen any benefit from this strategy. A quarter of them had either moved their production overseas or were considering it. Stephen Phipson of?Make UK said that Britain faces deindustrialisation if manufacturers don't get relief from high prices. He called for the scheme to be extended?to all industries and?rolled-out more quickly. We cannot afford to delay our actions by political turmoil or further consultations. The Government must act immediately to save thousands of jobs in Britain. Keir starmer is facing discontent from his Labour legislators?after several U-turns. Some people are supporting Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham in the event that he faces a leadership challenge, if he returns this week to parliament after a special elections. Starmer is under pressure from competing demands - such as those relating to defence and welfare - due to the 'Iran War. Phipson stated that extending the scheme to all companies would cost PS3 billion (about $4 billion) per year and eliminate 2.5 million jobs. The Trades Union Congress, a trade union federation, backed the call for greater relief. General Secretary Paul Nowak said the scheme should expand to "protect jobs and maintain factories and plants operating."
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Bousso: Iran's fragile deal with oil offers relief, but there are still risks associated with the Hormuz pipeline.
Energy exporters and buyers will breathe a collective breath of relief when the U.S. and Iran deal ends months of fighting by reopening Strait of Hormuz. The fragile calm could not prevent future outbreaks and it is unclear how soon or fully tanker traffic in the crucial waterway will return to normal. Iran and the U.S. announced an agreement late Sunday night to lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. This is where a fifth of the world's oil and LNG flowed through before the February 28th war. Both sides are expected to sign the agreement on Friday. This is a 'good thing' for energy markets that are in a crunch, but it leaves open the major issues, such as the future of Tehran’s nuclear program, which sparked the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign. This ambiguity leaves room for confusion, disagreements and renewed confrontation. In fact, tensions are already rising again. Iran's refusal to link any deal with Israel's campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah has threatened to derail talks. The Iranian-backed militia have exchanged fire repeatedly with Israel including at the weekend. The status of Hormuz is not clear. The deal gives Tehran a powerful tool, even though both the U.S.A. and Iran are committed to lifting the blockade. Iran's willingness to and ability of blocking the Strait for months broke a decades old taboo. It now has the potential to do it again, or even threaten it in the future whenever it wants leverage over its Gulf neighbors or adversaries. This shift could have long-lasting consequences. Even after the flow of energy returns, it is likely that shippers and buyers will be more cautious. Already, some significant adaptations have taken place. Saudi Arabia has increased its exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea port, by three times since March. This is roughly 60% more than before the war. United Arab Emirates have also increased exports out of Fujairah outside the Strait. Even after the reopening of Hormuz, it is unlikely that Riyadh or Abu Dhabi will reverse their shifts in a complete manner. The shipping behaviour may also change. Charterers and tanker owners will likely reduce their time in the Gulf to avoid being stuck if tensions erupt again. This caution will be reinforced by high insurance costs and concerns about security. These factors indicate that transit through the Hormuz may not reach its peak pre-war of 20 million bpd anytime soon. In the months and years to come, a flow of 16 million bpd or more is more likely. This residual risk will help to support prices. Brent crude prices have fallen below $85 a barrel, from their March peak of $118. However, the higher geopolitical risks and complex logistics will likely prevent a complete unwind to pre-war $60 levels. The Flood of Relief Reopening the Hormuz will lead to a multi-phased adjustment of global energy flows. First, the Gulf will be the source of this wave. The first wave of tankers will be those stranded in the Gulf during the blockade. They will start to leave almost immediately, supplying energy-starved countries and markets. Kpler estimates that around 60 million barrels worth of crude oil and refined products remain in floating storage inside the Gulf because they are unable to leave through Hormuz. Then, an influx will follow of vessels headed toward the Gulf in order to reduce Middle Eastern onshore inventory and restore export programs. Normalisation of logistics will take some time. Supply chains may take up to 60-90 days to fully rebalance due to the long distances travelled, congestion in ports and scheduling bottlenecks. It takes about three weeks to travel from the Middle East to Asia. This means that the resumption in shipments won't bring immediate relief to the most vulnerable markets. The impact of the conflict on global oil supplies will still be significant, even if it is not immediate. The regional producers can bring back 11 million bpd in oil production that was shut down during the conflict. They will also be able reactivate refining capacity and LNG export capability. Some volumes may return in a few weeks, but the complete recovery could take longer. It is difficult to restart fields, refineries, and export terminals following prolonged outages. Infrastructure damage caused by the war may take months, or even years, to repair. A RESILIENT BUT?STRETCHED MARK Reopening the plant also comes at an?important time for supply-demand equilibrium. The summer in the Northern Hemisphere is usually the time when global fuel consumption peaks, due to increased travel and air conditioning. The return of Middle East oil will, therefore, initially only slow down the rapid decline in global inventories. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil stocks dropped at an average of?5.3m bpd from March to May. Remember that the market has been surprisingly resilient during this conflict. The combination of commercial and strategic stock releases, increased U.S. imports, weaker Chinese demands, and partial easing sanctions on Russian crude and Iranian oil helped to cushion the shock. These measures did not eliminate the economic damage but they kept it manageable, effectively buying time for global economies. This time was quickly running out, as inventories were dangerously low. The U.S. and Iran agreement is not a moment too early. The agreement, by obscuring the underlying issues at the core of the U.S. - Iran conflict, does not reduce the risk of a new confrontation. The message for oil markets is clear: although the acute risks from the supply shock are over, the structural vulnerabilities revealed during the war will remain. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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State highway patrol reports 12 deaths in Missouri plane crash
Law enforcement officials reported that 12 people died in the crash of a private plane on Sunday in Butler, Missouri. Missouri State Highway Patrol reported that the crash happened near Butler Memorial Airport about 60 miles south of Kansas City. The?agency posted on X that "at this time, reports indicate that all occupants (12 in total) have died." A spokesperson for Bates County Emergency Management confirmed to local TV station Fox4 that the victims included 11 skydivers and one pilot. Bates County Sheriff Chad Anderson told reporters that the plane had taken off from Butler Memorial Airport and crashed shortly after. Anderson stated that the plane was not a commercial airliner. It was a local aircraft that took off from a local airport. Anderson said at a press conference that "this appears to be an accidental." He said that family members of the victims were present when the crash occurred. Anderson?said that officials from the?U.S. Federal Aviation Administration were at the'scene of a crash, and National Transportation Safety Board Investigators are on their?way. Anderson said that multiple local fire departments as well as?coroners offices responded to an emergency call shortly before 11:15 a.m. (1630 GMT) As of Sunday afternoon, authorities were still 'working to identify the victims and notify their families. (Reporting and writing by Gnaneshwarrajan; editing by Sergio Non, Edmund Klamann and Christian Martinez)
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Iraq has asked Turkey for an extension of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline agreement by at least one year
Ali Nizar, head of Iraqi state oil marketer SOMO said on its official website that Iraq has asked Turkey to extend the current Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline agreement for a minimum of a year in order to give more time to negotiate. Since the beginning of June, Iraq has exported 12,000,000?barrels? of crude oil through its southern ports. Ali Nizar, the SOMO's chief Ali Nizar, said that the Iraqi Government had requested Ankara for more time to?talks about a replacement contract covering the main export route. The long-standing Turkey-Iraq Crude?Pipeline??Agreement that governs the exports via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline is due to expire?on?July 27, 2019. Baghdad is still in talks with Ankara about a new draft of the agreement. Reporting by Muayad Suadi, Ahmed Rasheed and Ahmed Tolba; writing by Ahmed Tolba from Cairo; editing by Barbara Lewis
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Minister: Saudi Arabia and Turkey want to build a railway link with Jordanian and Syrian.
Abdulkadir Uraloglu, Turkish Transport Minister, said that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are planning to build a railroad to connect?the two nations with Jordan and Syria within the next three to four years. He added that other Gulf countries will also be joining the project. Uraloglu told Al Jazeera that the railway will help ease future problems caused by the disruption of Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran. A memorandum signed last week between Ankara, Saudi Arabia and Riyadh on logistics and railways describes the project. Uraloglu stated that in the first phase, the rail link would allow the transportation of goods, natural gas, oil and people between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Europe. He added that later, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Qatar and Oman would also be included. "A train departing from Saudi Arabia from Riyadh has already reached?several areas of Saudi Arabia. This is a plan to get it from Jordan and Syria to Turkey. Uraloglu said that the route would carry all types of cargo to Europe. He said that the route from Saudi Arabia up to Jordan's borders had been completed. On the Turkish side the link from Islahiye in the southeast of Turkey to Kilis, and Gaziantep near the border with Syria, has also been completed. He said that this?leaves an gap of about 400 km (248.55miles) between Syria?and?Jordan. Uraloglu stated that in addition to the commercial trade, the railway could be used for the annual Muslim Hajj pilgrimage. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad in 2024, the Turkey, which borders Syria, built strong ties with the government?in Damascus and said that it would help rebuild the country. Uraloglu said to?Al Jazeera that a financial plan for the rail project would be?drawn up. The investment will include $100 million for the reconstruction of the route between Turkey's Aleppo and Syria, creating a link directly to Damascus. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Tuvan Gumrukcu)
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UK anti-Islam Robinson detained briefly under terrorism laws
Tommy Robinson, a British anti-Islamist activist, said that he was detained and his phone confiscated at Heathrow Airport on Saturday. This came after he had posted a lot?online for a week about 'racist and antiimmigrant riots? in Northern Ireland. Robinson, whose actual name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon said on X that he was detained on Saturday night for about three hours, under the Counter-Terrorism and?Border Security Act. He said, "My phone was seized by?police", on X. Please help me start my legal defense fund. Robinson tweeted about the violence in Belfast that spread after a viral video showed a brutal stabbing attack on a man who lost an eye. A Sudanese has been charged with the attempted murder of a man. The police have stated that they do not consider the attack to be terrorism. In the days following, rioters attacked 'homes and businesses of ethnic minorities or foreigners in what the British Minister?for the Province called racist thuggery. Local politicians have said that far-right online agitators helped coordinate or promote violence. A?police spokesperson said that officers stopped a man in his 40s on Saturday at Heathrow Airport, after he returned?to Britain from Russia via Turkey. The man's communication devices were confiscated and he was interviewed by police officers. The spokesman confirmed that he was released. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Kate Holton)
Price hikes and outlook cuts are used by airlines to combat the fuel price surge.
The aviation industry was blindsided by the sudden increase in jet fuel costs from $85 to $100 to $150 to $200 per barrel during the U.S./Israeli war on Iran. Fuel accounts for as much as a quarter or more of the operating costs, which has forced airlines to increase fares and review their financial forecasts.
Here is an alphabetical list of the ways airlines are responding to this issue:
AEGEAN AIRLINES
The Greek airline anticipates that the suspension of Middle East flights, as well as a spike in fuel costs, will have "notable impacts" on its results for the first quarter.
AIRASIA X
The executives of the?Malaysian airlines said that the company has cut 10% of its flights in the group. Fuel prices have also been increased by about 20%.
AIR CANADA
The volatility in jet fuel prices has caused the largest Canadian carrier to suspend its full-year forecast.
Fuel prices have increased and the company has announced that it will reduce four of its 38 daily flights from New York.
AIR CHINA, CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES, CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES
China's "big three" airlines have reduced surcharges for domestic flights to 60 yuan (9 dollars) for flights less than 800 kilometers and 120 yuan (120 dollars) for those more than 800 kilometers, from respectively 10 and 20 yuan.
AIR FRANCE-KLM
The airline group has said that it expects a $2.4billion increase in fuel costs this year. It also downgraded the outlook for capacity to a 2%-4% increase from 2025. It had previously predicted a 3%-5% increase.
Cabin fares will increase by up to 59 euros (50 euros) for round-trip flights. The group announced previously that it would be increasing long-haul ticket costs to combat rising fuel prices.
KLM, the Dutch arm of the?group, announced?on 16 April that it would cancel 160 flights across Europe in a month's time due to increasing fuel prices.
AIR INDIA
Between June and August, the Indian carrier will temporarily reduce flights on several international destinations.
Bloomberg News reported that the company was considering furloughing employees who were not technical and reducing flight capacity more than 20% over the next three month.
The company said that it will also revise the fuel surcharge, moving from a flat surcharge for domestic travel to a grid based on distance. The company said that surcharges for international routes do not compensate the steep rise in fuel costs.
AIR NEW ZEALAND
On April 7, the airline announced that it would cut flights in May and June, and raise fares. It was one of the first airlines to announce a large increase in ticket prices after the conflict began. The airline also suspended its earnings forecast for the full year due to volatility in the fuel markets.
AIR TRANSAT
The Canadian airline announced that it would reduce its planned capacity by 6 percent from May to October of this year. Cuts are expected to be made on routes to Europe, the Caribbean and Cuba.
AKASA AIR
Akasa Airlines, based in India, announced that it would be imposing a fuel surcharge on both domestic and international flights ranging from 199 to 1,300 Indian Rupees ($2 - $14).
ALASKA AIR
Fuel prices are rising sharply, putting pressure on airline margins.
The carrier had previously withdrawn its profit forecast for the full year and warned that earnings would be severely affected in the second quarter. The carrier has also reduced capacity in certain markets.
AMERICAN AIRLINES
The U.S. airline slashed their 2026 profit projection, pushing it to the lower end, a loss. They also said that they expected to see an increase in jet fuel costs of more than $4 billion for this year.
The government has increased the fees for checked bags on domestic flights and short-haul flights by $50 for the third bag and $10 for each of the first two bags. It also reduced certain benefits to economy passengers.
It said that higher fuel costs would increase its costs by approximately 140 billion yen (890 million dollars) this year. However, it is expected that hedging and cost reductions will limit the impact of the increased fuel prices to about 60 billion yen. It has said that it will consider introducing a domestic surcharge for fuel in the fiscal year starting April 2027.
ASIANA AIRLINES
Newsis reported that the South Korean airline would cut 22 flights from April to July because of fuel price increases.
CATHAY PACIFIC
Hong Kong Airlines will reduce fuel surcharges on most flights starting May 16 as part of its "agile" response to the volatile jet fuel price.
CEBU AIR
The Philippines-based carrier said that the sharp increase in fuel prices is a major concern. It will continue to review pricing and network strategies and try to minimize the impact.
DELTA AIR LINES
Delta announced that it would reduce capacity by 3.5 percentage points compared to its original plan, and increase fees for checked baggage in order to offset the rising costs of jet fuel. The increase will be $10 on first and third checked bags and $50 on second and fourth checked bags.
The U.S. carrier pulled all planned growth in capacity for the current quarter, and forecast profits below Wall Street expectations.
EASYJET
EasyJet has warned that it will suffer a larger half-year loss before tax of between 540 and 560 millions pounds (729 and 756 million dollars), including an extra 25 million pounds of fuel costs in march.
FRONTIER AERLINES The Wall Street Journal reported that a group of U.S. low-cost airlines, including Frontier, has proposed a $2.5 billion relief package to the U.S. Government. The report stated that the figure was based on the amount of jet fuel the group is expecting to spend this year in comparison to previous forecasts.
Fuel prices have risen significantly since the carrier's forecast, and it has stated that it will be reviewing it.
GREATER BAY Airlines
The Hong Kong-based airline said that it will increase fuel surcharges for most routes on April 1, but keep them the same on routes to mainland China and Japan.
HONG KONG Airlines
The airline announced that it would increase fuel surcharges up to 35% on flights between Hong Kong, the Maldives and Bangladesh, and Nepal. Charges would go from HK$284 to HK$384 for these flights.
British Airways' owner IAG has warned that the annual profit will be lower than expected, due to rising jet fuel prices and supply disruptions.
It had previously announced that it would increase ticket prices in order to reflect the higher costs of jet fuel. Despite its fuel hedges it was still "not immune" from the wider fallout caused by fuel price volatility.
INDIGO
India's largest airline announced that it will introduce fuel charges for domestic and international flights starting March 14. The charge for flights into the Middle East is 900 rupees and for flights into Europe, 2,300 rupees.
JETBLUE AERWAYS
JetBlue announced that it would reduce hiring, cut capacity, and raise fares in order to mitigate the impact of the rising jet fuel prices. CEO Joanna Geraghty stated on a earnings call that the airline had suspended its outlook for the full year.
Sources with knowledge on the subject have confirmed that KOREAN will be entering emergency management mode in April as oil prices continue to rise.
LATAM AIRLINES
The Chilean carrier has cut its core earnings forecast for 2026 after rising jet fuel costs pushed up costs.
LUFTHANSA
The German airline group has said that it will be hit by jet fuel prices of 1.7 billion euros in 2026.
Its subsidiary ITA Airways announced that it would increase ticket prices by between 5% to 10% in 2026, in order to compensate for rising fuel costs.
The group announced in April a new low-cost "Economy Basic", which limits free carry-on luggage to a "laptop or small backpack".
The group had previously announced that 20,000 short-haul flight would be removed from their schedule by October, which is equivalent to approximately 40,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel.
PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS
The airline said that it would increase domestic flight fares up to $20, and international flights by up $100. It cited higher fuel surcharges as the reason for this.
QANTAS AIRWAYS
Qantas, an Australian airline, said that it has delayed a planned A$150-million ($109-million) buyback. It also increased its fuel estimate for the second half 2026 from A$2.5-billion to A$3.1-3.33 billion.
Scandinavian Airlines announced that it would cancel 1,00 flights in April due to high jet fuel and oil prices. In March, the airline had cancelled "couple hundred" of flights.
SPIRIT AIRLINES
The U.S. Low-Cost Carrier shut down abruptly, after collapsing due to financial pressures. This included the sharp increase in fuel prices caused by the Iran War.
SPRING AIRLINES
Budget Chinese airline announced that it will increase fuel surcharges for domestic flights starting April 5. Details to be announced in due course.
SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWAST AIRLINES
The U.S. airline forecast a second-quarter loss below the market's expectations, and its CEO warned that the spike in jet fuel would cost the airline billions of dollars during the quarter.
The previous increase in the cost of checked bags was $10.
The Portuguese airline claimed that its price increases would partially offset the impact of fuel prices changes on its revenues.
THAI AIRASIA
Thai low-cost airline said that it would reduce its overall seat capacity between May and July by 30% on average to offset the impact of rising aviation fuel costs and a softening of demand.
THAI AIRWAYS
The Thailand-based airline said that it would increase fares between 10% and 15% in order to combat rising fuel prices.
The European airline, tour operator and travel agency cut their full-year profit forecast and suspended revenue guidance. They said they had incurred extra costs of about 40 million euro due to the March war, including repatriation and operational disruptions.
TURKISH AIRLINES LUFTHANSA
SunExpress, the joint venture between Turkish Airlines, Lufthansa and Lufthansa announced that it would charge a temporary fuel fee of 10 euros for each passenger on routes connecting Turkey with mainland Europe. The fuel surcharge will be applied to all bookings made after April 1, for departures on or after May 1.
Turkish Airlines announced on April 10, that it would not be distributing any dividends from its net profit for 2025, instead choosing to keep the earnings and preserve cash.
T'WAY AIR
As part of measures taken to combat the effects of war, the South Korean low cost carrier announced that it would furlough cabin crew in May and/or June without pay.
UNITED AIRLINES
The CEO of the?U.S. Scott Kirby, the airline's CEO, said that ticket prices could rise up to 15%-20% to offset an increase in jet fuel costs. The company has already implemented five fare hikes late in the first-quarter, along with increased baggage fees that it says have begun to offset rising fuel prices.
The carrier forecasted second-quarter profits and profits for the full year below Wall Street expectations. It said that it would recover only 40-50% through fares and revenue measures during the second quarter. This figure was expected to improve to 70-80% by the third quarter and up to 85-100% in the fourth.
VIETJET
Due to possible fuel shortages, the?Vietnamese low-cost airline has adjusted flight frequencies on certain routes.
VIETNAM Airline
Vietnam's Aviation Authority announced that the carrier will cancel 23 flights per week on domestic routes starting in April after it requested assistance from the government to remove a tax on jet fuel.
VIRGIN ATLANTIC
Corneel K. Koster, CEO of the Financial Times, said that although fuel surcharges will be added to fares this year, the airline still faces a struggle to become profitable.
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA
Virgin Australia has said that it expects an increase of jet fuel costs of between A$30 and A$40 million in the second half of the fiscal year. It also anticipates a 1% decrease in capacity for the fourth quarter.
VOLOTEA
The Spanish low cost airline has introduced a new pricing strategy that links ticket prices with fuel costs. This could add an additional surcharge after purchase of up to fourteen euros per passenger per flight.
WESTJET
Globe and Mail reports that the Canadian airline has reduced seat capacity in June. The Canadian Press reported previously that the airline would add C$60 ($44.50) to certain bookings, and combine flights due to rising costs.
WIZZ AIR
Low-cost carrier reassessed its forecast upwards citing strong bookings in advance and quick action to offset rising fuel prices and flight cancelations by adding capacity on new and existing routes and using promotional rates. The airline had warned of a possible profit drop at the beginning of the Middle East war.
(source: Reuters)