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Iran warns of a near-standstill in Hormuz as ships are warned to stay within its waters

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran (IRGC) has warned ships not to cross the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian territorial waters, as Thursday's traffic was well below normal levels.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, one if Japan's three largest shipping companies, is caught up in the confusion, as firms try and work out the impact of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the U.S.

In an interview with Jotaro Tamura on Thursday, the President and CEO said that it was necessary to confirm whether or not safety risks were low enough.

Three tankers were recently rescued from the Strait of Gibraltar - two with cooking gas, liquefied petroleum gases (LPG), and one with liquefied gas natural.

Tamura stated that the company is awaiting instructions from the Japanese government as to how it should proceed in the context of the two-week truce.

LARAK ROUTE

According to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency, the IRGC would like vessels to navigate through Iranian waters in the area around Larak Island to avoid the danger of naval mines along the normal lanes in the strait.

Tasnim reported that the IRGC navy instructed vessels to enter the strait just north of Larak Island, and exit it just south of the island until further notice.

Ambrey, a British maritime security firm, said in an advisory that there was a real possibility of a continued risk for unauthorised Strait of Hormuz Transits and to Israel- or US-affiliated shipping trying to transit.

It said that "even shipping with apparent approval was turned back mid-transit in recent weeks."

LITTLE TRAFFIC

Ship-tracking data on Thursday showed that only six ships passed through the Strait in the last 24 hours, as opposed to the normal 140.

Data from Kpler Intelligence, Lloyd's List Intelligence, and Signal Ocean revealed that they included one oil products tanker, and five dry bulk carrier.

Ship-tracking data on the MarineTraffic platform and Pole Star Global showed that a chemical tanker is set to cross, bound for India.

Torbjorn Sltvedt, a risk intelligence analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said that most shipping lines will remain cautious and two weeks won't be enough to clear up the backlog if traffic increases significantly.

According to Kpler, more than 180 tankers containing approximately 172,000,000 barrels of crude and refined oil remain stranded.

Toll System?

Some media reports suggested that Iran could charge a toll to ships passing through. The figure was estimated at $2 million. Ship-tracking data showed some vessels, such as the Indian flagged Pine Gas LPG Tanker, were already taking an unusual route around Larak Island.

Sohan Lal said that the Pine Gas' chief officer did not pay Iran for transit, and the vessel was not seized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran when it exited through this route.

Western leaders have rejected any fees imposed by Iran for ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

On Thursday, ADNOC CEO and UAE state oil company CEO said that the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Iran must immediately open it.

INDIA EASES RULES

India granted waivers for two Iranian cargoes on an older tanker, and one under international sanctions, to enter its port in order to speed up the?delivery of oil from the Gulf. Two officials familiar with this matter told reporters that India has recently given waivers to allow the entry of two Iranian cargoes.

India, the world's second largest importer of LPG for cooking, is experiencing its worst gas shortage in decades. The government has introduced rationing measures to ensure that households have enough LPG.

IRAN'S OWN SHIPS

Last month, the United States announced a temporary waiver of Iranian oil exports that will end on April 19. The move was made to ease fuel prices and support global supply.

Since the Iran War began on February 28, oil prices have increased by about 50%. The U.S. average retail gasoline price has recently topped $4 per gallon for the first time in over three years.

According to Charlie Brown, senior advisor at UANI, which monitors Iran related tanker traffic, one Iranian-flagged tanker carrying oil and another bunkering tanker passed through the strait during the last 24 hours.

Brown stated that since Feb 28, at least 24 Iranian-flagged tanks have arrived in Asia. This pace is comparable to the pre-war level, he said. Reporting by Jonathan Saul and Ahmad Ghaddar; editing by Alex Richardson, Jason Neely and Jason Neely

(source: Reuters)