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Canada's oil and gas revenues will surge due to the Iran war but new investments are being held back.
Senior executives from Canadian oil and gas companies said that they expect sharply higher profits for 2026 due to a 'price surge caused by the Iran War.' However, these earnings will be returned to shareholders rather than invested in new major capital projects. The executives admitted that their financial fortunes had changed drastically in the wake the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted the global oil and natural gas supply and sent Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude benchmarks soaring. The CEOs of Canada, which is the fourth largest oil producer in the world, said that the shock in commodity prices will not translate into an increase in drilling in Canada or the approval of new oil sands projects. The CEOs cited a?uncertainty as to how long high oil prices will continue, as well as a continuing concern over perceived regulatory and political barriers in Canada. "We are a commodity-based company." "We participate when we see energy prices increase globally," said Jon McKenzie in an interview. McKenzie is the CEO of Cenovus Energy. "But at this stage, I don't believe it will have any long-term or strategic impacts on anyone's operating plans." OIL PRICES?HIGHER THAN EXPECTED Many Canadian companies expected WTI prices to average $60 per barrel in 2026, but prices have soared since the start of the war, and now range from $90-$100 a barrel. Mike Verney is executive vice president of McDaniel & Associates and said that this would mean a "massive change" in the profitability for producers compared to what they had expected. Brian Schmidt, CEO at Tamarack Valley Energy said that the cash flow would be about C$650 (472.21 millions). "What we are 'forecasting' now is that it will be around C$1billion." Schmidt stated that unless Canada builds a new crude oil export pipeline, its oil producers will not be able to significantly increase production because the existing pipeline capacity is?almost maxed out. Executives expressed concern about their ability grow without an agreement between the Canadian and Alberta governments with industry on industrial carbon pricing. Jamie Heard said that the Iran war had changed Tourmaline Oil’s cash flow forecasts for this year and probably for next year, too. He said that while cash flow is not expected to reach the levels of 2022, when the Canadian Industry as a Whole reaped record profits because of the Ukraine War and the global commodity shock resulting from it, they could get "closer" to this range. Heard stated that Tourmaline would return the majority of its Iran profits to its shareholders. This could be in the form a special dividend. Heard said that Tourmaline understands war premiums are fickle, and we need to earn these cash flows before we can announce new allocations.
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United's Chief takes the fight against American to the White House with a merger pitch
Scott Kirby, the CEO of United Airlines has been arguing for more than a ten-year period that only two premium airlines can be supported in the U.S. He has now taken that view to the White House, where he floated the idea of merging with American Airlines, his fiercest competitor. Kirby's strategy can be traced to the closing of?the American/US Airways merger on December 9, 2013. Kirby was then a senior executive at American. Kirby told a New York audience in March 2025 about a conversation he had with his team at American about the future of the airline industry. Kirby said, "There is only enough room for two premium airlines in the United States." "We're pushing United out of Chicago." After being passed over by American for the CEO position, he left three years after the 2013 merger. He was hired by United and spent the last decade trying to reverse that strategy, fighting against American at Chicago's O'Hare Airport. The latest move extends that rivalry outside of the playing field. Sources revealed late Monday that Kirby met President Donald Trump in February and pitched the American Airlines merger to him, appealing to Trump's broad ambition to create U.S. Corporate Champions. It wasn't immediately clear if United had approached American to discuss a possible deal or if the idea was still preliminary. United and American declined to comment on this article. Kirby has also spent months engaging the administration, according to people familiar with the situation. This included an appearance on Katie Miller Podcast, the show hosted by Stephen Miller's wife. Kirby's participation in the show was criticized by far-right activist, Laura?Loomer. Loomer wrote: "Scott Kirby was the guy who fired employees for refusing the COVID vaccine and spent years acting as a Biden climate cultist." "Scott Kirby, a wolf dressed as a sheep is not a good thing." BATTLE OF AIRLINE CHAIRMEN This rivalry is also visible in public. The?CEOs from American Airlines and United Airlines appeared at the J.P. Morgan Conference last month -- Robert Isom of American Airlines in the morning, and Kirby of United in the afternoon. Kirby was asked to comment on Isom's description of United's Chicago expansion when he was present. He said, "I took that as a complement." Robert?Mann is a former airline executive and consultant who said that the rivalry has gone beyond normal competition. He said, "It is a grudge-match to some extent." "Robert Isom against Scott Kirby after school in the schoolyard -- Brass knuckles." Kirby argues that shocks such as the current fuel price spike will "accelerate" the gap between brand loyal airlines and the rest, creating opportunities for consolidation. FUEL PRICE SPIDING: AN OPPORTUNITY OR A RISK? American has parts of this profile. Its shares and earnings are behind those of its competitors and the unions have criticized management harshly. However, its own numbers complicate the picture. Last month, CFO Devon May stated that the airline had a first-quarter liquidity of more than $10 billion and a debt level at ten-year lows. It is still one of the largest U.S. airlines with the highest leverage. Isom stated last month that "Americans are built for times like these, no matter how long it takes." This leaves American, which is in the middle: not strong or weak enough on its own to command a high valuation but not weak enough for it to be a target of easy acquisition. Kirby's argument for a merger is based on the international scale. A combined airline could reach more markets in which foreign carriers dominate long haul flying. This was a pitch for the White House focused on trade deficits. The domestic reality is not in favor of the argument. The merger would bring together two of the biggest U.S. Airlines with a lot of overlap, such as Chicago O'Hare airport and other major hubs in Texas. These are the exact markets that regulators will most likely scrutinize and then demand asset sales. WINNERS AND LOSSES IN MERGER PLAN A sale is a better option for American investors than waiting on a turnaround. Stocks rose more than 8 percent on Tuesday, reflecting the expectation of a premium to be paid for a company worth about $7 billion. This is less than one-third of United's market capitalization of $31 billion. The arithmetic is in the opposite direction for United shareholders. Fuel costs are rising due to the Iran War. United has about $20 billion of?long-term?debt and is working towards an investment-grade credit rating, a milestone that its finance chief said last month the airline expected to reach before the end this year or the next. Adding American's approximately $25 billion debt would leave the combined firm with around $45 billion of liabilities. United's ability to maintain its balance sheet would be put to the test, even though it is promoting financial discipline and investment grade ratings. The deal would also bring American more than 139,000 staff and a fleet over 1,000 aircraft. This risk is heightened by the?surge of fuel prices. Jamie Baker, an analyst at J.P. Morgan, cut his United earnings estimate last week to a loss of $1 per share for the entire year if fuel prices remain high. Although sustained high fuel prices will shift structural advantage to high-margin airlines like Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines, industry officials privately state that a United-American merge would be difficult in the current climate. One industry official said that a United acquisition of American would be "like digesting a whale". (Reporting and editing by Joe Brock, Matthew Lewis and Rajesh Kumar Singh from Chicago)
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Aurubis CEO anticipates US demand for copper to reduce Comex stocks
The massive copper stockpile at the U.S. Comex exchange The CEO of German copper manufacturer Aurubis stated on Tuesday that the reserves should be drained 'in a few months' as local demand picks up. Comex has 532,000 metric tonnes of copper - nearly a quarter the annual U.S. demand - because traders shipped metal to America last year in anticipation of tariffs. The inventories have not fallen much since February when they peaked at 546,000 tons. Last week, arbitrage shipping copper to Comex was opened again. Toralf Haag, CEO of Aurubis, said: "I believe it's an issue with supply security." "But, in my opinion, stocks will decline over the next few months due to strong local demand." Haag declined to estimate the stock market's position at the end 2026. Haag stated that Aurubis will finish the second phase, which is 90,000 tons of recycling per year, of its Richmond, Georgia recycling plant by the end September. Haag stated that the decision to build a primary copper melting plant, expand the facility or build another recycling factory elsewhere in the U.S., which was previously planned for the summer of the northern hemisphere, is now most likely going to be made by the end 2026. Haag stated that Aurubis had experienced a "certain decline" in demand due to the Iran War and has seen less demand coming from Germany's struggling auto sector. However, other industries such as power and construction are compensating. He added that data centres are "a big additional driver for copper". Aurubis also sees an increase in demand for sulphuric acids as a result of the shortages caused by the conflict. The chemical is produced by the company at its smelting bases in Hamburg and Bulgaria. Haag stated that "we are getting inquiries from around the world, and from players with whom we have never done business before." He added that because Aurubis sold long-term contracts it only benefited partially from the higher acid prices. Spot availability was also limited. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman.)
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Williams CEO: PA-NY Constitution natgas pipeline could be operational as early as 2027
Williams Cos CEO Chad Zamarin stated on Tuesday that the long-delayed Constitution Natural Gas Pipeline from Pennsylvania to New York could become 'operational' as early as 'the end of 202?, if everything goes according to plan. Zamarin's comments were made in Brooklyn, New York at the groundbreaking for the Northeast Supply Enhancement project (NESE), a long-delayed pipeline. "We're working with the states to finalize commercial agreements. That is really the next step." Zamarin stated that if we are able to accomplish this within the next few months, the?Constitution would be available online by the end 2027. Williams, after years of fighting state regulators for permits (especially water permits), canceled Constitution and?NESE by 2024. In?May 2020, the U.S. administration of President Donald Trump used New York's reconsideration on Williams' proposed gas pipelines in the state to reach an agreement with New York Governor Kathy Hochul and lift a federal prohibition against the construction of Norwegian Energy Firm?Equinor?s Empire Wind offshore Wind farm off New York. Hochul refused to approve either pipeline project, but stated that the state would work with private entities and the U.S. Administration on projects that meet the legal requirements of New York law. Constitution was designed to move approximately 0.65 billion cubic feet of gas per day from Pennsylvania to New York. NESE will move about 0.4 bcfd from Pennsylvania to New York, via New Jersey. A?billion cubic foot of gas is enough to power around five million U.S. households for one day. (Reporting and editing by Keith Weir; Additional reporting by Scott DiSavino, New York)
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European oil refining margins turn negative, bucking global trend
According to IEA and trade sources, European oil'refining margins are now negative. They lag behind?stronger margins? in Asia and the U.S. as a result of the?competition for crude? from Asian buyers because of the Iran War drives up costs, even though fuel prices have reached record highs. The IEA reported in its monthly report, based on Argus Media data, that the margins for Northwest European sweet light hydroskimming fell to a negative average of $6.45 a barrel in the week starting April 6. The data also showed that the margins for medium sour cracking were in the negative. The margins for light sweet cracking remain positive but have also shrunk significantly. The squeeze on margins is the result of the record-high physical crude oil prices as the conflict in Iran has disrupted Middle East flow. Analysts said that the?narrowing European Margin effectively shows these plants running at a deficit, and will likely prompt some to reduce crude oil processing into fuels. Trading sources say that simple European refineries without the upgrading units needed to extract higher-value products like jet fuel could be forced to reduce production if margins remain under pressure. However, there are no signs of widespread reductions yet. Neil Crosby, an analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that Europe will cut its utilisation as things stand. He added that the runs could drop by up to 500,000 barrels a day. ASIAN CONCURRENCE FOR CRUDE RAISES PRICES IEA data revealed that in contrast, the heavy sour cracking margins were stronger last week compared to the average for March. In Singapore, the IEA data showed that the medium sour cracking rates were also higher last week compared to their March averages. Trading sources say that the squeeze in Europe is due to rising crude prices as Asian refiners compete for cargoes. They also cite higher operating costs, such as electricity and natural gases. A trading source at a European refinery said, "It is typical of these crises." Fuel cracks are first to appear, but margins will be affected as crude prices and other costs rise. He said that the margins had dropped from $30 per barrel during?the first weeks of the conflict, to just under $4 today. Margins in Europe reached record levels in March. The IEA reported that in Singapore, margins were 14 times higher in March than they were in February. In?northwest Europe, margins for light sweet hydroskimming in 'March were nine times higher at $15.20 a barrel than they were in 'February. Some refineries even postponed planned shutdowns in order to benefit from the higher fuel price. IIR, an industry watchdog, reported that Sarroch, Italy's 300 000 barrel per day refinery, was forced to shut down for maintenance from mid-March until late May. Vitol, the refinery operator, declined to make any comments. (Editing by Alex Lawler, Jan Harvey)
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The U.S. Iran Blockade includes over 10,000 military personnel and ships, aircraft
U.S. Central Command announced on Tuesday that the U.S. 'blockade' of Iranian ports involved more than 10,000?military personnel, more than 12 warships, and dozens aircraft. The command reported that "no?ships? made it through the U.S. Blockade? and 6 merchant vessels obeyed the?direction of U.S. Forces to turn around in order to re-enter a?Iranian?port on the Gulf of Oman" a day after President Donald Trump's blockade took effect. The blockade is being enforced unbiasedly on all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, including those in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It said that U.S. forces "support freedom of navigation" for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz from and to non-Iranian port. Reporting by Bhargav Asharya and Doina chiacu, Editing by David Ljunggren
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The US power and natgas price turn negative in Texas, California and other states due to mild weather
U.S. spot electricity and natural gas prices in Texas, California and other states traded in the negative territory on Tuesday due to mild weather that kept both heating and cooling usage low. This allowed for more energy demand from 'hydro' and other renewable sources. Negative gas prices can be a sign of too much gas or power being produced, forcing some companies to reduce their output or pay other firms to buy the gas or power. Gas prices in West Texas at the Waha hub are average cash prices. The econometric index remained negative for 47 consecutive days, a record. Pipeline constraints continue to trap the gas produced by oil in the Permian region, the country's largest oil-producing shale area. Analysts have said for years that negative gas prices are a sign the Permian Region, which spans West Texas, and eastern New Mexico, requires more pipelines. There will be more pipes later this year but not enough to deal with the current amount of gas coming from the ground. Daily Waha prices averaged for the first time below zero in 2019. According to LSEG's pricing data, this happened 17 times between 2019 and 2020, six times each in 2023, once in 2024, 49 times each in 2024, and 39 times during 2025. It has also happened 56 times since the beginning of this year. Waha prices are currently averaging a negative $1.53 for every million British thermal unit (mmBtu). This is compared to a $1.15 positive price in 2025, and $2.88 positive over the last five years. Electric Reliability Council of Texas regions such as West and Panhandle also had negative power prices for several hours. TOO MUCH POWER IS CALIFORNIA In California, the electric prices have also fallen. Spot power at South Path 15 (SP-15 Hub) The price of electricity fell below zero on Tuesday for the first since March 2025. It was a negative 72 cents a megawatt-hour (MWh), down from $1.88, a positive amount, for Monday. This compares to a negative average of $16.85 in May 2024 and a positive average of $19.80 in 2026. In 2025 the average was $28.44 and in the last five years, it was $53.02. SP-15 prices were in the negative two times each in 2025, and 18 times in 2024. Gas prices are low at the PG&E citygate because there is little demand for electricity. The price of mmBtu in Northern California dropped to a new record low for the second day in a?row, falling to $1.21 on Tuesday. This compares to averages of $3.42 per mmBtu in 2025 and $1.95 in 2026. Power traders have noted that power prices often turn negative in western areas of the U.S. during the spring, when warmer temperatures melt snow in the mountains and increase the amount of water available to hydropower. The U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center, which tracks water flow in the Pacific Northwest region, predicted that the amount of water in the Dalles Dam along the Columbia River between Washington State and Oregon in 2026 would be 103% more than normal. This is well above the levels of 80% in fiscal 2025. 77% in 2024. and 76% in Fiscal 2023. The Dalles Dam is the second-to-last on the lower Columbia River. It's a critical point for measuring the amount of water that can be used to generate electricity in the Northwest. Reporting by Scott DiSavino, New York; Tim McLaughlin, Boston; Editing by Louise Heavens
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Bangladesh launches the 'Farmers' Card' in order to support agriculture sector
As part of its efforts to modernise the agriculture sector, Bangladesh launched on Tuesday a "Farmers' Card", aimed at extending direct support to millions?of?farmers?and streamlining subsidies. Agriculture ministry officials stated that the scheme is aimed at small farmers and sharecroppers, who are often without access to institutions such as banks. The programme also offers farmers access to low-interest loans and agricultural machinery as well as crop insurance, advisory services and subsidised fertilisers and seeds. "If the farmers in this country do well, if the farmers survive, then all of Bangladesh does well and the entire population of Bangladesh lives well," said Prime Minister Tarique Raham at the official launch of the'scheme' in Tangail District, central Bangladesh. Many wore traditional straw hats in order to block out the sun. "I feel proud for the first time to be a farmer." This initiative will allow us to grow," said Julekha Akhter who cultivates a small plot of land at Tangail. The scheme will be implemented in phases. It will begin with a pilot that covers more than 22,000 farmers from selected areas. Rahman stated that the government plans to extend it across the country over five years. This will bring approximately 27.5million farmers into this system. This scheme will connect farmers with digital information about the weather, crop management and market prices, which will help improve planning, productivity, and efficiency. The agriculture sector remains the cornerstone of Bangladesh's economy. It contributes 11-12% of gross domestic product, and it employs a significant portion of its workforce.
Gulf crisis affects Australian and New Zealand companies, from airlines to banks
The U.S. and Israel war against?Iran is causing financial strains for companies in Australia and New Zealand. Higher fuel prices are stoking inflation, affecting consumer and business confidence, and weighing on corporate earnings.
Westpac Banking Corp. and Qantas Airways warned Tuesday that the soaring fuel prices, and consumers' struggles with high costs and borrowing fees, could affect their earnings.
Some of the companies from Australia and New Zealand have reported an impact on their business due to the Middle East conflict.
Air New Zealand
New Zealand's Flag carrier announced a price increase in March after suspending its earnings forecast for the full year.
The airline announced on April 7 that it would cut flights in May and June. This will affect?about 4% of all flights and 1% total passengers.
a2 Milk
New Zealand's A2 Milk has cut its profit forecast for fiscal 2026 as higher freight costs and supply chain disruptions due to the conflict have affected its China-label formula infant milk product in its largest market.
Cleanaway Waste Management:
The company's full-year earnings forecast was cut by A$20,000,000 ($14.17,000,000) largely due to higher costs, reduced activity and timing differences of cost recovery.
Fonterra
New Zealand's largest dairy producer stated that the conflict could impact?its supply chains and increase its inventory and costs in second half of year while also contributing to volatility in global commodities prices.
Orora:
Orora, the packaging?company, has lowered its earnings forecasts for its French unit Saverglass. It also cancelled its share-buyback program. The company cited the war as the reason.
Due to the closures of shipping routes, the company also stopped bottle production in its glass production facility located at Ras al-Khaimah (United Arab Emirates).
Qantas:
Qantas Airways is Australia's national carrier. It has raised its fuel costs outlook for the second-half of the year up to A$800m. However, it said that its planned A$150m share buyback program had not yet begun. The airline cited the volatile and sharply increased jet fuel prices.
Qantas has increased fares to offset the rising cost of its flights and shifted them towards stronger routes like Paris and Rome where demand is strong. They have also reduced domestic capacity by about 5 percentage points during the June quarter.
Virgin Australia
Virgin Australia announced in mid-March it would be adjusting its fares as rising costs in the aviation industry are "exacerbated" by the Middle East situation.
Westpac:
Westpac, Australia's no. Westpac, Australia's no.
Westpac's net interest margin for its Treasury and Markets division has been weakened amid the interest rate volatility related to the conflict. A weaker outlook is already leading to higher credit provisioning.
Westpac's provision for 'potential bad debt' is at its highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Auckland International Airport
Auckland International Airport in New Zealand said that flights to the Middle East from Auckland were affected.
Airport operator: The Middle Eastern routes experienced a 81% decrease in passenger numbers in March compared to a year earlier, and a 73% drop in seat capacity. $1 = 1.4118 Australian Dollars (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Maju Samuel, Jasmeen Shaikh in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)