Latest News

Maguire: How China is filling the energy gaps left by the US-Iran conflict.

Since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began over a week ago, the world's biggest energy importer and consumer has changed its supplier mix to respond to the disruption in oil, fuel and gas flows from the Middle East.

Data from commodities intelligence company Kpler show that China will import roughly half its total?imports from the Middle East by 2025. This includes crude oil, refined fuels and liquefied gas.

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has slowed down tanker shipping to other parts of the world, forcing China, and other major energy consumers, to look for alternative sources?of energy products.

This article will show you how China has historically relied on Middle East energy products and which countries are increasing their shipments to China now that the war against Iran has stopped all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

CRUDE OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Kpler data indicates that China will import 642 million metric tonnes of crude oil, refined petroleum products, LNG, and LPG by 2025. Of these, 317 million or 49.4%, will come from Middle Eastern suppliers.

The Middle East is the only region that comes close to meeting China's energy import needs. South America ranks second with a share of 12%, while East Asia and West Africa each have a share of about 8.5%.

China will import 3.6 billion barrels worth of crude oil in 2025. The Middle East is expected to supply around 52%.

The Middle East's share of China's total imports of oil has plummeted due to the reduction in outbound oil shipments since the beginning of the war at the end February. It fell to a record low of 31% only in May.

The total crude oil exports to China from the Middle East were 581 millions barrels between January and May. This represents a 28% drop from 2025.

China, to make up for the shortages caused by Iran and Saudi Arabia has increased imports from South America, Eastern Europe and Russia. Brazil and Russia have both registered strong volumes year-over-year in China, so far, 2026.

China's total crude oil imports through the first five month of 2026 are down about 10% compared to the same period in 2025. This shows China's ongoing difficulties in replacing Middle Eastern supply.

China's combined fuel imports from January to May are around 11% lower than the same period in 2025. They total around 51 million barrels.

Kpler reports that Middle Eastern suppliers will account for 41% of China’s total imported refined products in 2025. However, they supplied less than 1% of the product in May due to the closure of shipping routes.

China's fuel exports to the Middle East have dropped by 20% from January to May to 19.2 million barrels. Imports from other regions have fallen by 4% to 31.6 million barrels.

Algeria and Egypt have both seen a steep increase in fuel exports from China in 2026.

LNG & LPG

In 2025, China imported about 40% of its LPG and LNG supplies from Middle Eastern countries. The closure of outbound traffic has affected China's gas market.

China's total LNG and LPG imports to China from the Middle East fell by 43% between January and May. They were down from 15 million metric tonnes in the same period last year.

The total gas shipments of all other regions also decreased this year but only by 12%. This shows that the Middle East has seen a much greater drop in volumes than other suppliers.

The total LNG exports from the Middle East in January-May are estimated at around 6 million tonnes, or about 2.5 million tonnes less than the same period in 2025.

Other major LNG exporting areas, including Australasia, have also seen a year-over-year decline in LNG sales to China. This is mainly due to the persistent weakness in key industrial sectors of China in 2026.

China's total LNG exports are still down only 15% this year. This means that the Middle East has seen a drop in imports twice as large as China's total LNG exports.

China's total LPG imports, which are primarily used by petrochemical companies and rural areas to heat and cook, have fallen by about 25% in 2026 as compared with a year earlier.

The war against Iran has not had a material impact on China's imports of LPG from the Middle East.

The country's chemical sector is still struggling, and this means that the overall demand for LPG has remained muted in comparison to last year. Meanwhile, demand for household heating will have peaked in early January, at the height of winter.

The Middle East conflict could have a greater impact on China's LPG export volumes if the Middle East conflict continues for several months longer and impacts restocking patterns ahead of winter next year.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.

Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)