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Asia spot prices flatten as weak demand offsets limited purchasing

The Asian spot price of liquefied gas was flat for the second week in a row, due to steady supplies and weak demand throughout the region.

Average LNG price for delivery to northeast Asia in December Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) is $11.10.

Estimated price for January deliveries was $11.05/mmBtu.

"Short-lived cold snaps in Asia may have triggered a little spot interest, but the overall picture of the market is still weak." The economic situation has not improved in the past weeks, said Klaas Dozeman of Brainchild Commodity Intelligence.

He said that the current price levels were still too high for many price-sensitive buyers. However, minor news from Indonesia and Egypt, which signaled higher domestic demand, added a little tightness to present circumstances.

Masanori Odaka is a senior analyst at Rystad Energy and said that the CPC of Taiwan and RPGCL of Bangladesh showed interest in buying spot in the region. He added that the colder weather will be expected in the second- and third-weeks in November for the top importers China, Japan, and Taiwan.

Odaka said that while China's downstream consumption of gas should increase this month during the winter heating season but buying interest is still low at current spot prices despite continuous LNG flows and ongoing contracts.

In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker for cargoes to be delivered in December, on an ex ship basis, at $9.85/mmBtu, on November 13. This is a $0.53/mmBtu reduction from the December price in the Dutch TTF Hub. Prices are under pressure due to oversupply and weak Asian demand. High freight rates, as well as strong U.S. LNG liquefaction, have kept cargoes in Atlantic

Argus estimated the price to be $9.885/mmBtu while Spark Commodities put it at $9.865/mmBtu.

"Asian prices are higher than European prices, but it's not because demand has increased in Asia. It is due to the much stronger freight rates on the Atlantic, which have pushed Asian prices up to keep at least some Atlantic basin LNG in Asia," said Martin Senior.

Seb Kennedy, an independent gas analyst, stated that hedge funds increased their overall exposure to TTF Futures during the week ending November 7th, by buying both long- and short-positions in almost equal measure.

The U.S. arbitrage for the front month to Northeast Asia through the Cape of Good Hope is now closed, and the market is marginally pointing towards Europe. However, the arbitrage via Panama still remains open. This was confirmed by Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan.

He added that the Atlantic LNG rates reached a new high for the year of $82,750/day while Pacific LNG rates reached $62,000/day. This is their highest rate since October 2024.

(source: Reuters)